No away team has won a semi-final for 7 years. No Australian super team has won a sudden death match away from home, ever. The Stormers have ceded the fewest points in this years comp, and yielded on average only one try per match at home. Against these ominous stats, how can the Waratahs possibly win at Newlands on Saturday?
The answer is simple – the new found pace of their game. By this I don’t mean the straight line speed or acceleration of the NSW players, but rather the pace at which they recycle ball and re-align attack. I’ve put a few clips together below to help illustrate what I’m talking about.*
The key to pace is avoiding the ball getting slowed down, first of all in the tackle, and then secondly at the breakdown. The first you do by offloading before or in the tackle, the second by doing you best to not have a real ‘ruck’ at all and clearing the ball as quickly as possible. It’s Bob Dwyer’s mantra!
Why is this the key to beating the Stormers? First of all, everyone’s aware of the Stormers impressive defensive stats. But defense is only a function of the attack, i.e. the more an effective attack stresses the defence, the less effective it becomes. Not allowing the defence time to re-align through fast ball recycle (notice I didn‘t say phase play) is the ultimate way to stress it. No matter how good the Stormers defence is, fast recycle with stress it and generate points through tries or penalties.
What the Tahs have been excellent at in their last few games, is taking advantage of what this stress yields. A line break on it’s own means usually means nothing unless, as Les Kiss said in the last Ruggamatrix podcast, you quickly ask even more questions of the scrambling defence in your next 3 or 4 actions. Carter, Horne, Beale and Mitchell have been excellent at capitalising on that initial break and turning it into points.
What this doesn’t mean is obsessively going wide which will play into the Stormers hands; their big but mobile back row love to hunt wide for turnovers (their back-row has 3 of the top 5 pilferers this season) and the whole team is drilled on effecting the steal. See this video from coach Gary Gold.
These turnovers can be neutralised in two ways by the Tahs. First, by avoiding the breakdown through offloads and fast recycle, and second by sucking these forwards back into the action by targeting the space left behind the ruck by the stormers (as seen in my video above).
Key to this overall gameplan is an engine room who can pay at this pace, and in the last few rounds, Mumm, Douglas, TPN, McCutcheon and Mowen have proven themselves ideally suited. Behind the pack Barnes has played the key marshaling role to re-align the attack, the centre pairing has created go-forward with great ball and the back three have been sublime at exploiting the space and opportunities that this game plan creates.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the Waratahs on Saturday is themselves. No doubt the Stormers at home will be far stiffer opposition than the Chiefs or Hurricanes and by definition this is ‘finals footy’. But while there’s no bonus point for four tries, the pressure that would have created those tries in any other game will still yield points. Stay with the plan Tahs, stay with the plan.
*Pommy accent warning – I’ve been here too long!
