We are always looking for quality fundraising ideas at Green and Gold Rugby. Because we have had absolutely none of those in the past three months, we have had to turn to the last refuge of the struggling sports fan- gambling.
Seriously though, how hard can it be? I watch every game, and nod along with Austin’s analysis as if I understand. I tip way more winners than losers, and do OK at fantasy. With the amount of quality inside information on the blog and forum I know who’s looking good in training, and who has their mind on the plane home. Making some cash should be a piece of piss.
So this year I will be putting G&GR’s money where my mouth is and having a crack at betting on the rugby in the vain hope that I will raise some money for the site. Gagger, the ruthless numbers man that he is, has given me $10 to spend each week, which will no doubt ramp up each week as our account swells to huge proportions.
But I can’t just go into this half cocked. I have had a long hard think about my investment strategies, and have come up with three rules which I will obey all season:
- Don’t get too silly with exotic options. Sure odds of $31 on TPN to score first, or $3 for the first scoring play to be a Bulls penalty goal look tempting, but unless the Bulls sign Salman Butt as their new five-eighth I’m steering clear. Too much is left to chance, and most of the time you end up singing for your supper.
- Beware of the Bipolars. You know the teams I am talking about- one week they will set the world on fire, trouncing the opposition with skill, speed and brutal force, but the next week play like pussycats. Invariably the Blues and Hurricanes fall into this mould, and the Reds have been guilty of it in recent years as well. I will not be touching them for the first few weeks until I can work out if they are the real deal.
- History Repeats. Just ask Jonathan Kaplan. Some teams have really struggled with certain others for no apparent reason- think the Crusaders with the Force, or the Tahs with the Highlanders and Chiefs. Some teams go off like a firecracker in the opening rounds, but come home like a busted arse. For other teams it’s the reverse. Year after year we talk about the past record, and year after year the same things keep happening. I will be looking long and hard at the recent history of each match before throwing my money down.
With these three rules in mind I have settled on my bet of the week. In a round with a lot of seemingly obvious results, one stands out to me as the most obvious. No new side has ever won its first game in Super Rugby, and although that statistic only encompasses two sides (the Force and Cheetahs), both of those sides were considerably better on paper than the XV put forward by the Rebels this weekend. In essence the Rebels are a team of international misfits and Super 14 castoffs, and will be no match for a Waratahs team sporting 11 Wallaby capped players in the starting 15 alone. Provincialism aside, on paper this is a no-brainer. The crowd will be passionate and the new kids on the block will play with spirit, but I expect the Waratahs to run away with the game in the last 20.
The Bet – Waratahs giving away a 7.5 point start, at $1.91 with Centrebet
It isn’t overly ambitious and we won’t win a mint, but will provide the solid win that every team craves in the first round. We will pocket our $19 and move on to Round 2 unscathed. That’s the plan, anyway. The good folk at Centrebet have come on board to help us out, so feel free to click the link below if you want to invest in the Tahs, or any other side for that matter. There are a shitload of options.
Do you have any advice, tips or strategies for betting on rugby? I need all the help I can get!!
