It’s only 4 games into the 2012 season, and as our stats guru and supplier Rucking Good Stats will tell you, it takes at least 6 games before you can get to a 95% confidence interval. At this stage, just one match can skew an average.
But stuff that – we need some answers as to why are teams are faring like they are – and we need ‘em now!
So in the following observations, I’ve tried to focus in on the extremes to give us a reasonably safe flavour for how the different teams are travelling.
The canny Reds (W3, L1, PTS13)
It’s no surprise why the wily Reds have fared so well out of the blocks. Link’s not looking to repeat last year’s start, and early 2012 sees the Reds spending the most amount of any super team in their opposition’s 22, the second highest in overall territory. Keeping hands on the ball is also key – while sitting mid-table for possession, they are third last in tactical kicks from hand – compare that to the Force, Rebels and Tahs: 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively for kicking in the overall comp.
The Reds have conceded the lowest number of points in the competition so far and in the penalties they concede, the opposition 
has the lowest rate of actually kicking for goal (35.2% of the time), reflecting where they are on the field. Conversely, the Reds have the second best penalty goal conversion rate.
If there are watchouts for the Reds it’s with their scrum (conceding the 2nd highest number of full penalties from it, highest free-kicks, highest re-sets on their own ball) and handling errors – the highest in the comp. Although in both these areas I thought they were greatly improved against the Sharks and were unlucky not to be better rewarded for scrum dominance in the first half.
The pressure valve Force (W1, L3, PTS5)
If you’ve got a mental picture of the Force building through thousands of phases in the oppositions half the field, to find themselves having to rebuild 50 metres back just one error later, then there’s a reason why.
The Force are 2nd in the comp for possession and 3rd for territory (7th in the opposition’s 22). They are 2nd for rucks completed and is the highest rated team for 7th/8th/9th phase ball. Yet they’re 3rd lowest for tries scored and second last for points overall.
The problem is their defence, as admitted by Woody himself – they have the worst missed tackle ratio in the competition, and with the likes of “never miss” Pocock in the backrow, this points to some pretty big holes elsewhere. This results in them conceding the most clean line breaks in the comp – even behind the Rebels!
It also explains why when the opposition does rarely get the ball, punishment can be so swift and brutal – the Force have the lowest time in play required to concede a try – despite all the territory and possession they hold.
It’s definitely not them being turned over – they have the second best ruck defence in the comp (over-committing?) as well as the second best percentage of turnovers at opposition rucks. Set piece and re-starts are all also very solid.
With such stark low and high-points, just a couple of fixes could surely see them with completely different results.
The Waratahs – a worry (W1, L3, PTS8)
Compare these two approaches to that of the Waratahs who are 3rd last when it comes to both territory and possession. The Tahs defend more rucks than any other team in the comp – almost twice as many per game as the Force (57 vs 108).
They are also painfully ineffective at the breakdown, with the second lowest percentage of ruck/maul steals on opposition ball, while also having the second worst percentage of their own rucks being turned over.
So, no ball and no territory and guess what – they also give away penalties like they’re going out of fashion, being the 3rd highest in the whole competition (although they do position them well – by accident?). Throw in the 4th highest kick rate coupled the 4th highest tactical kick errors and you’ve got another fan forum on its way.
One upside of this lack of ball may be their lack of handling errors, they concede about half as many as the other Aussie teams.
Brumbies – too early to tell for the youngsters (W2, L1, PTS9)
Most of the Brumbies stats currently sit lowish mid table – just a few stick out.
For the positive, those fleet footed youngster backs are making the most line-breaks in the competition and as a team they have the second lowest tactical kicking rate.
However, they are even worse at ruck defense than the Tahs, currently sitting at the bottom of the comp.
The Rebels – the scoreboard says it all (W0, L3, PTS6))
Like the Brumbies, there’s still a lot of static, except for a few killers:
Lowest points scored, lowest tries scored, lowest time spent in the opposition’s 22, second highest tackles missed, second highest tries conceded.
Another long season for the Rebels?
