The Brumbies magical mystery tour continues this week in Wellington when they take on the Hurricanes with a spot in the Super Rugby final on the line.
The Brumbies surprised a few observers last week with the way dispatched a disappointing Stormers side and shelved the rolling maul in the process to finally give the backs a piece of the try scoring action which will give the Hurricanes plenty to think about as they come up against one the best defensive unit this season that has only allowed on average 16.5 points although the home side aren’t far behind with 18.
The key this week for the Brumbies will be overcoming the huge travel schedule they have undertaken in the last few days that is nearing 30,000 kms. In 2013 they did they had a similar itinerary after beating the Bulls in South Africa they had to travel to Hamilton to take on the Chiefs and lead the game before falling away in the last 15 minutes and as shown below, could be their undoing as the Hurricanes have scored 18 tries in the last 20 minutes of games this season, which is the best of any team.
There would be plenty of lessons learnt from that experience and it will be interesting to see what adjustments have been made to ensure they are prepared for this clash against a side who are well rested after earning a week off after finishing on top of the ladder.
The visitors will have very little margin for error against a side who averages the second most points per game (28.6) and first for tries per game (3.6). The Hurricanes possess a deadly back three in Julian ‘The Bus’ Savea, Nehe Milner-Skudder and James Marshall with the first two of that trio clocking up plenty of metres this season with 1130 and 1004 respectively. Compare that to the Brumbies best in Joe Tomane with 769, it points to the Hurricanes running the ball all night and attempt to clock up more clean breaks to add to their tournament best tally so far.
With Henry Speight ruled out through suspension, Stephen Larkham had a few options on the wing to try and stop Julian Savea but has decided to give former Aussie sevens rep Lausii Taliauli the nod and he will certainly have his hands full.
One way of nullifying those threats will be to kick the leather off the ball well over the touchline and with the Cake Tin’s expansive areas outside the field of play it could be easier said than done to stop a quick throw in. The Brumbies have the second best lineout success in the comp so will be looking to target the Hurricanes lineout which has not operated so well this season.
They also have the added advantage of winning the last four games between the two sides including two wins in Wellington and have won the only previous semi-final game between the two but that was way back in 1997 in Canberra.
They could do worse than watch multiple replays of the tape of the Waratahs game in Wellington earlier this year and use their blueprint to become only the third side to beat them at home this year
Key matchups
Toomua v Nonu
Toomua hasn’t played a great deal of late after being ruled out with injury that has limited his impact. This week he is up against Ma’a Nonu and his defence will need to flawless if he is to contain Nonu and the rest of the Hurricanes backline.
Moore v Coles
The lineouts of the respective sides are at opposite ends of the scale in terms of success. The Brumbies have relied on their lineout as a platform to launch their maul attack and if they can get this part right then the Hurricanes could be in a bit of trouble.
On the other hand, the scrums are the Hurricanes strong point whilst the Brumbies have struggled so this will be an area to keep an eye on.
Fearless Prediction
For the Brumbies to win, they will need to ensure their recovery from the travel and preparation has been spot on. The Hurricanes won’t be as poor as the Stormers were last week and will have a big Wellington crowd behind them who won’t want to see their side blow their best chance of winning the title in some time.
But I reckon the Brumbies will sneak this by 2 points and then cheer home the Waratahs for an all Aussie final next week.
Hurricanes v Brumbies Semi-Final
 |  | 
|
| Reggie Goodes | 1 | Scot Sio |
| Dane Coles | 2 | Stephen Moore |
| Ben Franks | 3 | Ben Alexander |
| Jeremy Thrush | 4 | Rory Arnold |
| James Broadhurst | 5 | Blake Enever |
| Brad Shields | 6 | Scott Fardy |
| Ardie Savea | 7 | David Pocock |
| Victor Vito | 8 | Ita Vaea |
| TJ Perenara | 9 | Nic White |
| Beauden Barrett | 10 | Christian Lealiifano |
| Julian Savea | 11 | Joe Tomane |
| Ma’a Nonu | 12 | Matt Toomua |
| Conrad Smith | 13 | Tevita Kuridrani |
| Nehe Milner-Skudder | 14 | Lausii Taliauli |
| James Marshall | 15 | Jesse Mogg |
| Reserves | ||
| Brayden Mitchell | 16 | Josh Mann-Rea |
| Chris Eves | 17 | Allan Alaalatoa |
| Jeffery Toomaga-Allen | 18 | Ruan Smith |
| Mark Abbott | 19 | Jordan Smiler |
| Blade Thomson | 20 | Jarrad Butler |
| Chris Smylie | 21 | Michael Dowsett |
| Rey Lee-Lo | 22 | Nigel Ah-Wong |
| Matt Proctor | 23 | Robbie Coleman |
| Location: | Cake Tin, Wellington | |
| Kickoff: | Sat 27 June 17:35 | |
| Referee: | Glen Jackson | |
| Assistant Ref 1: | Chris Pollock | |
| Assistant Ref 2: | Nick Briant | |
| TMO : | Ben Skeen |
Stats provided by Opta Sports
