My final 6Ns review and it couldn’t have ended up closer with three teams in with a shout of taking the Championship. It could well come down to bonus points with yellow cards becoming an unwelcome factor as well. The table after 4 rounds sits as follows:
France P 4 W 3 L 1 Pts 16
England P 4 W 3 L 1 Pts 15
Ireland P 4 W 3 L 1 Pts 14
Scotland P 4 W 2 L 2 Pts 11
Italy P 4 W 1 L 3 Pts 4
Wales P 4 W 0 L 4 Pts 3
All games are being played on Saturday. We kick off with Italy v Ireland, followed by Wales v England and finishing with France v Scotland. Enough dilly dallying, let’s get cracking.
Sun 16 March. Italy v Ireland, Stadio Olimpico 1.05am AEDT
Italy
They had a great first half against the SDs scoring two excellent tries but were eventually overpowered. In Menoncello and Brex they have what is imo the best centre pairing in the Championship and Capouzzo oozes class.
Team: 1 Fischetti, 2 Lucchesi, 3 Ferrari, 4 Lamb, 5 Ruzza, 6 Negri, 7 Zuiliani, 8 L Cannone, 9 Page – Relo, 10 P Garbisi, 11 Ioane, 12 Menoncello, 13 Brex, 14 Capuozzo, 15 Allan Replacements: 16 Nicotera, 17 Spagnolo,18 Zilocchi,19 N Cannone, 20 Lamaro, 21 Vintcent , 22 Varney, 23 Marin
Queseda has made seven changes overall, mostly involving the forwards. In the back row, Zuliani is joined by Negri and the returning Lorenzo Cannone, who gets the nod over Ross Vintcent.The second row sees Dino Lamb return alongside Federico Ruzza and in the front row Danilo Fischetti retains his place, while Simone Ferrari comes in at tighthead and Gianmarco Lucchesi starts at hooker. In the backs Page-Relo replaces Varney. The midfield remains unchanged while in the back three Tommaso Allan returns at full-back shifting Ange Capuozzo to the wing.
Ireland
After an evenly balanced first half the Irish got well and truly duffed up by a first class French outfit. One or two may’ve played themselves out of Lions reckoning.
Team: 1 Porter, 2 Sheehan, 3 Bealham, 4 Ryan, 5 Beirne, 6 Conan, 7 van der Flier, 8 Doris, 9 Gibson-Park, 10 Crowley, 11 Lowe, 12 Henshaw, 13 Ringrose, 14 Hansen, 15 Keenan Replacements: 16 G McCarthy, 17 Boyle, 18 Furlong, 19 J McCarthy, 20 O’Mahony, 21 Murray, 22 Prendergast, 23 Aki
With Ringrose back from suspension and Hansen and Lowe recovered from injury this must be about the strongest team that Ireland can field. Prendergast was found wanting in certain aspects of his game so Crowley comes in to offer a more steady hand. Bundee Aki could wreak havoc in the final stages of the game.
Fearless Prediction: Ireland need a large number of points together with a bonus point win to take out the tournament, and even then both they and the SDs will be praying for an upset with the Jocks beating Les Bleus. I expect the Italians to hold their own for a while but the Irish to overpower them and secure the necessary points.
Sunday 16th March. Wales v England. Principality Stadium 3.35am AEDT
Wales
Wales would have taken some positives from the way they came back against a very good Scottish team and they like nothing more than taking on the SDs in Cardiff. Will they cause an upset?
Team: 1 Smith, 2 Dee, 3 John, 4 Rowlands, 5 Jenkins, 6 Wainright, 7 Morgan, 8 Faletau, 9 Tomos Williams, 10 Anscombe, 11 Roberts, 12 B Thomas, 13 Llewellyn, 14 Mee, 15 Murray Replacements: 16 Lake 17 G Thomas, 18 Assirati, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Reffell , 21 R Williams, 22 J Evans, 23 Tompkins
Matt Sherratt has made a couple of changes to the starting line up with centre Joe Roberts to make his start on the wing replacing Tom Rogers, who suffered a fractured thumb against the Jocks. Up front there is one change with Aaron Wainwright, whom I rate very highly, starting at blindside flanker with Jac Morgan switching to openside and Tommy Reffell dropping to the replacements bench. Wales are an improving team and a win in Cardiff will do them a world of good.
England
At last the SDs played some excellent rugby with 7 tries, and I’m not complaining. A serious injury to Ollie Lawrence will give Borthwick something to think about particularly what role Marcus Smith will have.
Team: 1 Genge, 2 Cowan-Dickie, 3 Stuart, 4 Itoje, 5 Chessum, 6 Earl, 7 T Curry, 8 B Curry, 9 Mitchell, 10 F Smith, 11 Daly, 12 Dingwall, 13 Freeman, 14 Roebuck, 15 M Smith Replacements: 16 George,17 Baxter, 18 Heyes, 19 Cunningham-Smith, 20 Pollock, 21 Willis, 22 van Poortvliet, 23 Ford
Borthwick made extensive changes to their team for their final match and he isn’t popular among England’s so called fans. Who’d be a coach? A week after being dropped, Marcus Smith returns at full back. Tommy Freeman moves from the right wing to partner Northampton team-mate Fraser Dingwall in the centre. Tom Roebuck fills the vacancy on the right wing created by Freeman’s move infield while Elliot Daly shifts from full-back to left wing. There are two changes upfront with Luke Cowan-Dickie coming in for Jamie George at hooker and Tom Willis dropping to the bench to accommodate Ben Curry’s promotion to make it an all 7s back row. It’s all change on the bench as well with young gun Henry Pollock set to make his senior debut. With both Smiths on the field George Ford returns to the match day squad to provide a steady hand in what could be a fraught final 20 mins. There’s even talk of three #10s being on the field at the same time. Heaven help us. What could possibly go wrong?
Fearless Prediction: Of course I’ve got to go with my SDs but there’s never an easy game in Cardiff. With three openside flankers and only two recognised jumpers the SDs pack is arguably a bit lightweight which is something the Welsh may be able to exploit. Apart from Roebuck and Marcus Smith it’s a Saints back line which could work in the SDs’ favour. I have no doubt that Wales will raise their game and aim to turn over the hated English. It will be a close one.
Sunday 16th March. France v Scotland. Stade de France 6.50am AEDT
France
Performed a demolition job on the highly fancied Irish side in a performance marred by the injury to their captain Dupont. Lucu was an excellent replacement but I cannot see Galthie going with a 7/1 bench in such an important game.
Team: 1 Gros, 2 Mauvaka, 3 Atonio, 4 Guillard, 5 Flament, 6 Cros, 7 Boudehent, 8 Alldritt, 9 Lucu, 10 Ntamack 11 Bielle-Biarrey, 12 Moefana,13 Fickou, 14 Penaud , 15 Ramos Replacements: 16 Marchand, 17 Baille, 18 Aldegheri, 19 Meafou, 20 Auradou, 21 Jegou, 22 Jelonch, 23 Le Garrec
Only one change to the starting line up with Fickou replacing Barrisi. Galthie sticks with the 7/1 bench with Le Garrec, a more than useful scrum half, the only back replacement. Mind you Jegou was a pretty decent replacement at centre. Is this the shape of things to come?
Scotland
How did the Jocks manage to give away a 35-8 lead. They played some great rugby but nearly blew it. Complacency maybe. They cannot afford to do the same against a fired up French team.
Team: 1 Schoeman, 2 Cherry, 3 Z Fagerson, 4 Brown, 5 Gilchrist, 6 Ritchie, 7 Darge, 8 M Fagerson, 9 White, 10 Russell, 11 van der Merwe, 12 Jordan, 13 Jones, 14 Graham, 15 Kinghorn Replacements: 16 Ashman, 17 Sutherland, 18 Hurd, 19 Gray, 20 Sykes, 21 Muncaster, 22 Dobie, 23 McDowall
An enforced change with Dempsey dropping out with a hamstring injury replaced by Matt Fagerson and a straight swap between Gray and Brown. A couple of newbies on the bench in Sykes at lock and Muncaster in the back row.
Fearless Prediction: The Jocks may not be able to win the Championship but they have a team, particularly in the backs that could throw a large spanner in the works. But, somehow I doubt it. Whether it 6/2 or 7/1 the French bench should blow them off the park; however, rugby’s a game full of surprises.
Final Thoughts
Everyone was expecting this to be a three horse race with France, Ireland and Scotland as an outside bet. Trust the SDs, with a bit of good fortune, to ruin the party and the French who provided a masterclass in thumping the Irish in Dublin to set up a final weekend to remember. If they contrive to lose this, it will be on a par with their failure at RWC 2023, a national disaster. I can’t see it happening again even with Dupont missing. They are a class act.
