Earlier in the week, I noted that on the weekend G&GR darling Scott Fardy conceded no fewer than five penalties to take his season tally to Seventeen. I then talked about locks and excluded Fardy, largely because I think there’s very little chance he’ll be picked there for the Wallabies.
Fardy plays a pretty unique role for the Brumbies, much more akin to a tackle jackal than a traditional lock, especially in the absence of David Pocock. In fact, there are more similarities than differences across the Brumbies back row at the moment, with no genuine scavenger. So what if we compare Fardy with players in similar roles?
The table says a lot. Fardy is being fairly effective at the tackle, with eight takeaways, but he’s giving up way too many penalties in order to do so.
The table also shows pretty clearly why Michael Hooper will be the Wallaby 7 and Matt Hodgson, for all the Force’s form, won’t. (For the Reds fans, it’s worth noting that Liam Gill has had five starts, conceded five penalties, for 1 pilfer and 0 turnovers forced.)
In fact, I think Oracle Ewen should pull a Bob Dwyer c. 1990 and pick Sean McMahon as his back-up 7. Sure he’s raw, but he’s a keeper. Both Gill and Hodgson largely have skill sets that were great for a 7 ten years ago. But the game has changed, as Marcell Coetzee shows all too well. McMahon has a much more diverse skill set that might really appeal as Hooper’s back-up and more generally as a backrow bench player who can cover 6, 7, and 8 more than anyone else who’s available. The Wallabies can probably run the same plays with either Hooper or McMahon at 7; with Gill or Hodgson, they can’t.
McKenzie is going to want to play a high-octane game, with more aggression in the contact area and real ball running ability. The Wallabies need more front-foot ball, especially against big teams like South Africa and England, which in turn requires dominant runners.
On a per minute basis, McMahon has bust more tackles than any other backrower in the comp. (It’s worth noting on this point Will Skelton’s 19 tackles bust in 414 minutes.) Otherwise put, he breaks a tackle for every three times he runs the ball, which compares very favourably with Gill (one in every seven), Hodgson, (one in every eight), and even Coetzee and Hooper (one in every four).
Naturally, and building on the theme from earlier in the week, the balance of the pack will be vital here. But it’s this ability to “bend the line”, as exasperated Reds fans will know, that I think McKenzie will be looking very closely at. Some players really don’t offer a proper ball running option at all, especially into traffic.
That’s why Fardy, for all the penalties he concedes, is probably going to keep his spot at 6.
