Thursday’s Rugby News – The Last Round

It’s starting to get real with the top three just about finalised and teams currently in fourth to ninth still having a chance at finals. 

Featured photo is Melrose, the home rugby sevens which was played in the past couple of weeks.

Super Rugby travel: excuse or reason?

Simon Cron of the Western Force has said that travel has contributed to the demise of the Force this year. Is this an excuse or a reason? I thought I’d follow on from Hoss’s fine work last week and look at the travel this year in some granular detail. Let’s have a look at two teams who are in a similar position on the table being the Force and the Blues.

I acknowledge that the Force will always have a greater amount of travel than any other team since their closest away game is 3,088km away. I don’t think it is unreasonable to suggest that the draw could have been fairer to them. to have a last round bye shows criminally incompetent player welfare at worst or an unsympathetic schedule at best.

The Blues have travelled 12,112km this Super Rugby season. The toughest stretch for the Blues being a four week stretch playing the Crusaders away, Reds away, Force at home and Drua away totalling approx. 9,000km. The Blues have travelled away from New Zealand twice being once Fiji and once Brisbane.

The Force had a five week stretch from week 2 where they played Brumbies away, Reds home, Tahs away, Crusaders away and Fiji home, for a total of about 17,000km. The Force have had two trips to New Zealand and one to Fiji. Indeed, the Force boys had to go on a 12,400km round trip to the Drua as their last and second last games. The average margin of victory or defeat for any team this year is 12.5 points as it’s been the closest Super Rugby season in memory, the impact of a poor travel schedule cannot be understated. 

I would suggest that to make the comp as fair as possible the Force should play back-to-back games home and away next year (eg Reds then Drua as a tour, or Highlanders then Crusaders). New Zealand teams will always have an easier travel schedule as the distance from Auckland to Dunedin is approx. 1,500km. In elite sport where margins are fine in my opinion travelling 3,478km per game will put you at a substantial disadvantage to a team travelling 864km per game.

Are Spain and Latin American rugby the next big things?

Over 20,000 fans attended the domestic Spanish Cup final at the weekend – that’s an impressive crowd. Read here: https://www.instagram.com/p/DKHkpaZKOR-/?igsh=MTl4YzE3YWN1dXp1Ng%3D%3D The emergence of Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay as well as Spain is a massive opportunity for World Rugby.

Super Rugby teams round 16 and Happy’s picks

Friday 5:05 pm AEST – Highlanders v Chiefs at Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, 

The Chiefs are playing some ruthless rugby at the moment. This is a first against last game and the Chiefs will not let the minor premiership slip. Hats off to Jamie Joseph for his coaching this year, the Highlanders are a good team and if they can keep them together they’ll be big improvers next year.

HIGHLANDERS (1-15): Ethan de Groot (co-c), Jack Taylor, Saula Ma’u, Fabian Holland, Tai Cribb, Te Kamaka Howden, Veveni Lasaqa, Sean Withy, Folau Fakatava, Cameron Millar, Taniela Filimore, Timoci Tavatavanawai (co-c), Tanielu Tele’a, Jonah Lowe, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens

Replacements: Soane Vikena, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Sosefo Kautai, Will Stodart, Michael Loft, Adam Lennox, Sam Gilbert, Thomas Umaga-Jensen

CHIEFS (1-15): Jared Proffit, Bradley Slater, Reuben O’Neill, Josh Lord, Tupou Vaa’i, Samipeni Finau, Luke Jacobson (c), Wallace Sititi, Xavier Roe, Damian McKenzie, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Quinn Tupaea, Daniel Rona, Leroy Carter, Shaun Stevenson

Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Ollie Norris, George Dyer, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Simon Parker, Cortez Ratima, Josh Jacomb, Manasa Mataele

Referee: Ben O’Keeffe Assistant Referee: Marcus Playle, Jackson Henshaw TMO: Glenn Newman

Friday 7:35 pm AEST – ACT Brumbies v Crusaders at GIO Stadium, Canberra, 

What were the SRP managers thinking? This game is probably the most impactful one of the year which will decide spots 2 and 3 on the ladder. The winner will have a home field advantage either all of the way through or until the final in Hamilton and they give it to Doleman. I fully expect him to do something weird. This game should’ve gone to BOK or Gus.

Having said all of that the Brumbies are the only Australian team to overcome the Doleman curse for non-Kiwi teams, so I’m tipping them to do it again. 

BRUMBIES (1-15): James Slipper, Billy Pollard, Feao Fotuaika, Nick Frost, Tom Hooper, Rob Valetini, Rory Scott, Tuaina Taii Tualima, Ryan Lonergan, Noah Lolesio, Corey Toole, David Feliuai, Len Ikitau, Andy Muirhead, Tom Wright

Replacements: Lachlan Lonergan, Lington Ieli, Rhys van Nek, Lachlan Shaw, Luke Reimer, Harrison Goddard, Declan Meredith, Ollie Sapsford

CRUSADERS (1-15): George Bower, Codie Taylor (c), Tamaiti Williams, Scott Barrett, Antonio Shalfoon, Ethan Blackadder, Tom Christie, Christian Lio-Willie, Noah Hotham, Rivez Reihana, Sevu Reece, Dallas McLeod, Levi Aumua, Chay Fihaki, Johnny McNicholl

Replacements: George Bell, Lewis Ponini, Seb Calder, Tahlor Cahill, Corey Kellow, Kyle Preston, James O’Connor, Braydon Ennor

Referee: James Doleman Assistant Referee: Angus Mabey, Fraser Hannon TMO: Richard Kelly

Saturday 2:35 pm AEST – Blues v NSW Waratahs at Eden Park, Auckland, 

The 13 and 6 Tahs v the 13 and 5 Blues. This’ll be closer than people over the ditch think. As stated beforehand travel is a real thing at this time of year. The Blues are rested after a bye while the Tahs endured extra time in Perth some 5,800km away from Eden Park.

Blues by 6

BLUES (1-15): Joshua Fusitu’a, Ricky Riccitelli, Marcel Renata, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Laghlan McWhannell, Anton Segner, Dalton Papali’i, Hoskins Sotutu, Finlay Christie, Beauden Barrett, Caleb Clarke, AJ Lam, Rieko Ioane, Mark Tele’a, Corey Evans

Replacements: Kurt Eklund, Jordan Lay, Angus Ta’avao, Josh Beehre, Adrian Choat, Sam Nock, Harry Plummer, Cole Forbes

WARATAHS (1-15):  Angus Bell, David Porecki, Taniela Tupou, Fergus Lee-Warner, Miles Amatosero, Hugh Sinclair (c), Jamie Adamson, Langi Gleeson, Teddy Wilson, Jack Bowen, Triston Reilly, Joey Walton, Henry O’Donnell, Andrew Kellaway, Lawson Creighton

Replacements: Mahe Vailanu, Tom Lambert, Daniel Botha, Ben Grant, Leafi Talataina, Jack Grant, Tane Edmed, Darby Lancaster

Referee: Nic Berry Assistant Referee: Paul Williams, George Myers TMO: Brett Cronan

Saturday 5:05 pm AEST – Hurricanes v Moana Pasifika at SKY Stadium, Wellington, 

Can North Auckland (Moana) overcome the embarrassment of last weekend when Ardie Savea is going home. I am going for Moana in this one to allowing them to make finals for the first time. It’s a vibe thing

HURRICANES (1-15): Xavier Numia, Jacob Devery, Tyrel Lomax, Zach Gallagher, Hugo Plummer, Devan Flanders, Du’Plessis Kirifi (co-c), Peter Lakai, Cam Roigard, Brett Cameron, Fatafehi Fineanganofo, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Billy Proctor (co-c), Bailyn Sullivan, Ruben Love

Replacements: Raymond Tuputupu, Pouri Rakete-Stones, Pasilio Tosi, Will Tucker, Brad Shields (co-c), Ereatara Enari, Jone Rova, Tjay Clarke

PASIFIKA (1-15): Tito Tuipulotu, Millennium Sanerivi, Feleti Sae-Ta’ufo’ou, Tom Savage, Samuel Slade, Miracle Faiilagi, Ardie Savea (c), Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa, Jonathan Taumateine, Patrick Pellegrini, Solomon Alaimalo, Julian Savea, Lalomilo Lalamilo, Kyren Taumoefolau, Tevita Ofa

Replacements: Samiuela Moli, Abraham Pole, Chris Apoua, Allan Craig, Lotu Inisi, Melani Matavao, Jackson Garden-Bachop, Pepesana Patafilo

Referee: Angus Gardner Assistant Referee: Matt Kellahan, Graham Cooper TMO: Glenn Newman

Saturday 7:35 pm AEST – Queensland Reds v Fijian Drua at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 

The Reds are safe from missing the finals and played IMHO one of the games of the season last week against the Canes. The Drua form away from Churchill Park has been beyond poor; I expect that to continue in the last game of the year. Of concern for the Reds is front row depth. The player to watch is Josh Flook having his first start for the season after a bad hamstring injury.

REDS (1-15): Sef Fa’agase, Richie Asiata, Zane Nonggorr, Josh Canham, Ryan Smith, Joe Brial, Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson, Tate McDermott (c), Tom Lynagh, Tim Ryan, Hunter Paisami, Josh Flook, Lachie Anderson, Jock Campbell

Replacements: Josh Nasser, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Nick Bloomfield, Angus Blyth, John Bryant, Kalani Thomas, Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, Filipo Daugunu

DRUA (1-15): Haereiti Hetet, Tevita Ikanivere (c), Samuela Tawake, Mesake Vocevoce, Isoa Nasilasila, Etonia Waqa, Motikiai Murray, Kitione Salawa, Philip Baselala, Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, Taniela Rakuro, Tuidraki Samusamuvodre, Iosefo Masi, Ponipate Loganimasi, Selestino Ravutaumada

Replacements: Zuriel Togiatama, Peni Ravai, Mesake Doge, Joseva Tamani, Elia Canakiavata, Simione Kuruvoli, Inia Tabuavou, Isikeli Rabitu

Referee: Damon Murphy Assistant Referee: Jordan Way, Jeremy Markey TMO: James Leckie

Injuries round 16 broken toys

Blues

• Cam Christie (thumb)
• Stephen Perofeta (leg)
• Reon Paul (shoulder)
• Cam Suafoa (medical, season)
• Ofa Tu’ungafasi (neck, season)
• Sam Darry (shoulder, season)

Brumbies

• Allan Alaalatoa (calf/qualifying finals) 
• Tevita Alatini (ACL/qualifying finals)
• Charlie Cale (lower back/TBC) 
• Blake Schoupp (Achilles/season) 
• Austin Anderson (jaw/3-5 weeks)

Chiefs

• Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (shoulder/TBC) 
• Gideon Wrampling (shoulder/TBC) 
• Emoni Narawa (lip/short-term) 
• Manaaki Selby-Rickit (toe/short-term) 
• Liam Coombes-Fabling (hamstring/short-term) 
• Anton Lienert Brown (collarbone/mid-term) 
• Malachi Wrampling (hamstring/mid-term) 
• Kaleb Trask (hamstring/mid-term) 
• Sione Ahio (ankle/long-term) 
• Fiti Sa (shoulder/long-term) 
• Rameka Poihipi (knee/season0

Crusaders

• Fletcher Newell (Achilles/1 week)
• Kershawl Sykes-Martin (neck/1-2 weeks)
• Will Jordan (medial ligament/1-2 weeks)
• Finlay Brewis (shoulder/season)
• Taha Kemara (knee/season)
• Dom Gardiner (foot/season)

Fijian Drua

• Ilaisa Droasese (wrist/short-term) 
• Epeli Momo (knee/long-term) 
• Frank Lomani (shoulder/long-term) 
• Meli Derenalagi (knee/long-term) 
• Vilive Miramira (knee, short term)

Hurricanes

• Kini Naholo (knee/season)
• Brayden Iose (ankle/season)
• Riley Higgins (lower leg/season)
• Siale Lauaki (ankle/season)
• Ngani Punivai (ankle/qualifying finals)
• Caleb Delany (back/qualifying finals)
• Asafo Aumua (concussion/qualifying finals)
• Harry Godfrey (lower leg/TBC)
• Isaia Walker-Leawere (knee/TBC)

Highlanders

• Caleb Tangitau (groin)
• Nikora Broughton (knee)
• Finn Hurley (quad)
• Hayden Michaels (hamstring)
• Ajay Faleafaga (broken hand)
• James Arscott (shoulder)
• Hugh Renton (groin)
• Jona Nareki (knee)
• Oliver Haig (foot)
• Mitch Dunshea (neck)
• Taine Robinson (foot)

Moana Pasifika

• Alamanda Motuga (shoulder)
• Danny Toala (hamstring)
• James Lay (neck)
• Michael Curry (knee)
• Neria Fomai (knee/season)
• Pone Fa’amausili (calf)
• Sama Malolo (shoulder/season)
• Sione Havili Talitui (Achilles)
• William Havili (knee)

Queensland Reds

• George Blake
• Massimo De Lutiis
• Matt Faessler
• Matt Gibbon
• Frankie Goldsbrough
• Mason Gordon
• Isaac Henry
• Alex Hodgman
• Will McCulloch
• Lukhan Salakaia-Loto
• Seru Uru
• Liam Wright

NSW Waratahs

• Jake Gordon (hamstring) 
• Lalakai Foketi (shoulder) 
• Max Jorgensen (syndesmosis) 
• Rob Leota (ankle) 
• Jimmy Hendren (broken wrist) 
• Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii (concussion/fractured jaw)
• Charlie Gamble