It’s on!
A wonderful World Cup, full of drama and reversals, has reached the knockout stage. Australia have finished top in Pool A and will face Scotland in the quarter-finals at Twickenham on Sunday 18 October.
Wouldn’t we have liked to read those words a few months ago?
Twickenham has suddenly become a home away from home for the resurgent Wallabies: now the scene of two momentous, but utterly different wins. The game against England was mostly about the pressure we applied, and some razzle dazzle off the back of that. The game against Wales was mostly about the pressure we absorbed, and the stoic nature of our defence.
Two great games. Two famous wins.
Can we make it three in a row at home base?
Recent history suggests we could struggle. Scotland have won two of the last three games. Who can forget that horror day in Newcastle in 2012, when a full southerly gale was blowing the ball back over the kickers’ heads, like a high-lofted chip shot at St. Andrews?
The Scots revelled in it.
Go further back and the results swing Australia’s way. The teams have played 28 times, and the Wallabies have won 19. This century it’s 7-2 in Australia’s favour.
You’d be a fool to write Scotland off, especially in this tournament, where the gap between nations has narrowed so noticeably. The Wallabies certainly won’t. If Scotland play well, and we don’t, then we could easily lose, and the “British” press would have a field day with that.
That said, Australia will be firm (and deserved) favourites.
Scotland
Scotland has just come off an epic encounter with Samoa: one of the most entertaining games of this or any World Cup. Sure there were mistakes. Scotland were their own worst enemies for most of that game. But they gathered up their skirts to come through when it mattered the most.
This isn’t the Scotland of yore. This is a team with real attacking gifts, with the pace of Sean Maitland out wide, a potential match winner (and diving impresario) in Stuart Hogg at the back, and a cool hand at the wheel in Greig Laidlaw. They also have the grit to fight for a win, as we saw against Samoa.
Perhaps the most telling result was their 34-16 loss to a determined South Africa, who were still smarting from their 34-32 loss to Japan. The Boks dominated in the first half of that game, then Scotland came back. The second half was thrillingly close.
Scotland is a team with real resilience. They’ll take their chances if offered, and they can score tries.
Australia
Two great games doesn’t necessarily mean two games of great rugby. Far from it. The Wallabies have been scratchy in many aspects of their play. I’ll give them a B+. Plenty of room for improvement, and the capability to do so.
In particular, the outside backs have hardly fired a shot. Israel Folau has been out of sorts, and on top of that is carrying an injury that has negated his influence in the air.
This certainly hasn’t been the wide-running Wallaby game that many fans expected. Instead our wins have been based on an excellent ground game, patience, and dominance in the scrums.
And, of course, that miraculous defence against Wales.
Sweeping backline moves have been the general exception in this tournament. Teams are employing the rush defence to great effect against running-minded backlines, pinning inside backs behind the gainline and putting attacks under real stress.
Wales in particular were continually (and legally) in Bernard Foley’s face. It’s an attacking form of defence, and more often than not, defences are getting the timing precisely right, hitting the man just as he gets the ball, and crucially not being pinged for offside.
Perhaps it’s time for Matt Giteau and Kurtley Beale to dust off those contentious old chip-kicking skills.
Key Match-Ups
Greig Laidlaw vs. Bernard Foley
Scotland have their own iceman in Greig Laidlaw. His goal kicking against Bernard Foley could go a long way to determining the shape of this match. Laidlaw missed just one kick in the recent Six Nations tournament, giving him an accuracy rate of 92.86%. Foley has missed twice this tournament, for an accuracy rate of 89.47%. Both are in great form off the tee.
Stuart Hogg vs. Israel Folau
Scotland also have their own game-breaker in Stuart Hogg. In a struggling Scotland side in the Six Nations, Hogg made the most metres (442), beat the most defenders (18), and made the second most carries (63). This is like a carbon copy of Israel Folau’s own remarkable contribution to the Wallabies.
I’ve taken the liberty of writing this preview before the two teams are picked. Folau might be out this week, to give his troubled ankle time to heal. If so, then Hogg may face the energetic Kurtley Beale. Beale has his detractors, but he’s been a revelation off the bench this year.
Scrum vs. Scrum
Who would’ve thought? A linchpin of our game is now a dominant scrum. Not just a competitive one, but one that can routinely push other teams off their own ball. The Scottish scrum is serviceable. Expect the Wallabies to target this part of the game. If the Wallabies can get on top then it’ll be a hard day on the back foot for the Scottish team.
Prediction
Scotland are in a hard place, as any team ought to be who has just qualified for the final eight of the Rugby World Cup. Now they face the heavyweights in knockout games. A win would put them in the semi-finals for the first time. That’d be a great achievement for the team ranked ninth in the world.
Can they win? Of course. By the evidence of the last three games between the two sides, Australia are their bunnies.
Will they win? It seems unlikely this time round.
But then so did those last two Scottish victories. Throw in World Cup pressure, the English weather, a scoreboard that’s reluctant to tick, and 80,000 disgruntled British fans singing Scots Wha Hae, and we’ll soon get to see what both sides are wearing under their kilts.
I’m going with a step-up in performance from Australia, who simply have too many threats.
Wallabies by 17.
Australia: 1. Scott Sio, 2. Stephen Moore, 3. Sekope Kepu, 4. Kane Douglas, 5. Rob Simmons, 6. Scott Fardy, 7. Michael Hooper, 8. Ben McCalman, 9. Will Genia, 10. Bernard Foley, 11. Drew Mitchell, 12. Matt Giteau, 13. Tevita Kuridrani, 14. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 15. Kurtley Beale
Replacements: 16. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17. James Slipper, 18. Greg Holmes, 19. Dean Mumm, 20. Sean McMahon, 21. Nick Phipps, 22. Matt Toomua, 23. Quade Cooper
Scotland: 1. Alasdair Dickinson, 2. Fraser Brown, 3. WP Nel, 4. Tim Swinson, 5. Richie Gray, 6. Blair Cowan, 7. John Hardie, 8. Dave Denton, 9. Greig Laidlaw, 10. Finn Russell, 11. Tommy Seymour, 12. Pete Horne, 13. Mark Bennett, 14. Sean Maitland, 15. Stuart Hogg
Replacements: 16. Kevin Bryce, 17. Gordon Reid, 18. Jon Welsh, 19. Alasdair Strokosch, 20. Josh Strauss, 21. Henry Pyrgos, 22. Richie Vernon, 23. Sean Lamont
Postscript:
For Scotland, Ross Ford and Jonny Gray are suspended, while Matt Scott and Ryan Wilson have been replaced.
For Australia, Israel Folau, David Pocock and Rob Horne are all out. This could be a case of “sanity prevails”, since their replacements are all playing well.
I’m nonetheless going to downgrade my prediction to Wallabies by 12.
Folau and Pocock are our best players. Let’s hope they’re firing on all cylinders for the semis. and we get there!
Date: Sunday, October 19 (Monday AEST)
Venue: Twickenham
Kick-off: 2:00 AEST (16:00 local)
Referee: Craig Joubert
Assistant Referees: Glen Jackson, Pascal Gauzere
TMO: Ben Skeen
