I tried really hard to make up some witty stuff about storm clouds on the horizon or tempests, but they all sounded lame. This game however, wont be.
The defending champions have been through a rough patch, but a much needed win against the Aussie conference topping Brumbies and the week off will see them in the right frame of mind for a match they will know they will need to aim up for. The Stormers are leading the whole shebang, and until the weekend just past hadn’t dropped a game. That all came crashing down against the Crusaders when they had some problems at lock.
So two formidable teams on different trajectories are meeting, the interesting part will be if there has been a form change, or just a blip?
The Stormers are on their third game on the tour, and since leaving the relative sanctuary of the Republic, they have lost both the donut in their L column and their captain. Jean de Villiers has gone home after injuring his wrist against the Crusaders, he is expected to be out for at least a couple more weeks. Alistair Coetzee has decider to cover the loss of their talismanic skipper by shifting winger Bryan Habana into the 13. jersey. I am never a fan of moving specialist players out of position to cover an injury but they are on the road so perhaps it is the best option. Habana’s wing has been filled by Gio Aplon on his return from injury. I can’t help but feel this will weaken the backline a little, and perhaps even effect the defensive cohesion of the team.
Up front there is one change, Andries Bekker has succumbed to the back injury the saw him leave the field early in the Crusaders match, he is replaced by De Kock Steenkamp. Thankfully for Stormers fans, Eben Etzebeth has been named, so it isn’t a completely new pair of locks. De Kock Steenkamp is the brother of Bulls prop Wilhelm Steenkamp and I have been informed, reliably, that he is tough enough and has good aerial skills, so should cope OK come line out time and around the field. Make no mistake though, the line out will suffer without the experience of Bekker, though he has stayed with the squad so is no doubt mentoring.
In the home team’s corner, The Reds welcome back some of their injured players. Most notably, points machine Mike Harris returns where he left off at second 5. Considering the ideas put forth by Gagger in his statnalysis earlier, if he is even close Mike’s contribution will be invaluable. Also in the back line, Ben Tapuai shifts one out to 13. Deciding who to leave out for these changes was unfortunately quite simple given Aiden Toua is again injured, we hope it is the last time, he did a fine job against the Brumbies. The biggest shock to most arm chair pundits out there is that Sam Lane retains the 10 jersey, rather than Ben Lucas who is making his way back via the bench.
In the forwards the only changes are back row shuffles. In a horses for courses selection the two flyer selection of Robinson and Gill has made way for a more traditional Higginbotham, Robison, Samo combo. This is probably a further nod to the territory rather than breakdown tactics. The tight five remains the same.
On the bench, as well as a slight change in forward reserves to match the shuffle in the run on team, as noted earlier sees the return of Ben Lucas from his hamstring tear.
Looking into the stats that Gagger mentions, we know that the Reds kicking nearly mimicked identically the stats the from the crusaders defeat of the Stormers. Delving a little deeper looking at the flyhalf option taking between the games, The crusaders flyhalf kicked 9, Ran 3 and passed 17. During the Brumbies match, Rookie Sam Lane kicked 10, ran 4 and passed 13. It is easy to see the thought processes behind leaving him there. Add to this also that the Crusaders flyhalf, name, played inside the boot of Dan Carter and putting Mike Harris in there also ticks some boxes*. That’s not to mention Sam’s obvious knowledge of Stormers rugby.
For this tactic to pay off, the Reds will need to ensure their kicks are accurate, and they win their line outs. A settled tight five will help with that, especially compared to the loss of a lock like Andries Bekker that the Stormers are dealing with. Good news for the stormers is Etzebeth being cleared to play. Hopefully for them it isn’t a case of desperation, but if he really is fit, they are going to need him. Also, the loss of Jean De Villiers is just as damaging, the defensive starch he brings, and they will be missing, could prove telling. It is as good a time as any to try and exploit it.
Match Details
7:40pm AEST, Suncorp Stadium Brisbane.
Referee: Steve Walsh
Assistant Referees: Angus Gardner, Rohan Hoffman
TMO: Steve Leszcynski
Reds Team: 15. Luke Morahan, 14. Rod Davies, 13. Ben Tapuai, 12. Mike Harris, 11. Dom Shipperley, 10. Sam Lane, 9. Will Genia, 8. Radike Samo, 7. Beau Robinson, 6. Scott Higginbotham, 5. James Horwill (c) 4. Rob Simmons, 3. James Slipper, 2. James Hanson, 1. Ben Daley Reserves: 16. Albert Anae, 17. Greg Holmes, 18. Van Humphries, 19. Jake Shatz, 20. Liam Gill, 21. Ben Lucas, 22. Nick Frisby
Stormers Team: 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Bryan Habana, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Gio Aplon, 10 Peter Grant (vice-captain), 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen (captain), 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 De Kock Steenkamp, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff Reserves: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 Nick Koster, 19 Nizaam Carr, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Burton Francis, 22 JP du Plessis
Tip
This is a tough one, I think the Reds, fresh off a bye and with a win to ease the pain of their disastrous tour and keep the chins up, they should be ready to roll.
The Stormers conversely are experiencing a tough tour of their own, while not quite at the level of the Reds, they are still playing in a foreign city. On pure win/loss this year (a highly important figure when making any decision) you would have to back the Stormers, coupled with the their first loss on the weekend, they won’t want to drop two in a row.
However, I am going to put some faith in the home team, the extra week of work will see them ready to go, the lessons of the past month learned and the time to work on them. The coaching team will have been targeting this match and after witnessing last weeks result will be confident they can succeed. Reds to get the win here, I am not as confident as Paarlbok so won’t back them to win by 50, but I would take them by 6 in a fascinating contest.
* other times I have compared Dan Carter and another player I have been slated by every kiwi in the world about how he is incomparable, I acknowledge that in advance, however would like to point out that I am not comparing achievements, particular instances in any game past, present of future nor looks, just an aspect of his play. Honest…
