So here we are. In one sense, the World Cup is ages away; the Wallabies squad will play as many as twenty-four tests between now and their first match in England. But between now and then, Ewen McKenzie will be wanting to develop a winning culture against the top teams in the Rugby Championship and then to heavily emphasise playing in European conditions on the spring tour.
In other words, the time for developing combinations and structures is now, and the window for new ideas and players might close a lot sooner than one might think. History shows that if you want to be playing in the World Cup, you need to be making your run now.
Below, I’ll look through who Ewen is likely to pick in his 32 man Wallabies squad next Thursday – and who he should pick. There are some new players – and some oldies who’ve showed a new desire. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I think in non-core positions, McKenzie should actually be looking to develop similar types of players, not dissimilar ones. There will be a lot of attrition between now and September 2015. Being able to rely on constants in some areas will allow the coach to evaluate the effectiveness of his variables. More on this later.
I also think McKenzie should be making a major effort to play a more muscular brand of footy. Robbie Deans tried to “play small”, in basketball parlance, in the last World Cup and it came disastrously unstuck. It’s only with good foundations and dominance at the contact point that the Wallabies can consistently beat bigger, slower teams. In this respect, I think the Wallabies can learn a lot from the Tahs, by picking abrasive ball runners and ruckers.
Props
While this season has seen lots of players put their hand up at lock or in the backrow, frustratingly few have done so up front. Scott Sio, James Slipper, Ben Alexander, and Sekope Kepu are, for want of better options, certainties. For the extra man, I’d be very tempted to go with Toby Smith. Ewen – indeed all of us – are very clear what Benn Robinson can offer. At this stage in his career, that isn’t going to change.
So I suspect Ewen will use this opportunity just to look at Smith instead, either at the expense of or in addition to Robinson. The real problem lies in the fact that Sio and Slipper have comfortably been the best two Aussie props running around – and both of them, for now, play on the loosehead side.
[one_half last=”no”]
Ewen’s Picks
Scott Sio, James Slipper, Ben Alexander, Sekope Kepu, Toby Smith[/one_half][one_half last=”yes”]
My Picks
Scott Sio, James Slipper, Ben Alexander, Sekope Kepu, Toby Smith[/one_half]
Hookers
Straightforward. Nathan Charles has been impressive all year and will easily knock Saia Faingaa out of the third hooker berth.
[one_half last=”no”]
Ewen’s Picks
Stephen Moore, Tatafu Polota Nau, Nathan Charles[/one_half] [one_half last=”yes”]
My Picks
Stephen Moore, Tatafu Polota Nau, Nathan Charles[/one_half]
Locks
It’s hard to believe that just a few months ago Ewen was forced to turn to Sita Timani, even after he’d decided to bugger off to France. This season, Sita wouldn’t even be getting a start at the Tahs. There are quality locks everywhere. There are rumours that Kane Douglas’ deal with Leinster isn’t signed, sealed, and delivered. Douglas has been streets better this year than previously, and I think his timing couldn’t be worse.
Evidence shows that guys coming back from Europe are almost never the same player as when they left, let alone better. I think Ewen can help show Australian rugby what the Wallabies are all about and make Kane’s decision for him. But it’ll take balls.
Some doubt whether Skelton is ready. Wrong question: in rugby, a better rule of thumb is to always do what the opposition don’t want you to. Skelton is a genuine menace. His ball running is already noticeably better than early in the season. Having big, effective ball running locks like Jones and Skelton might also open up some space for more ball players elsewhere, too.
Sam Carter’s done a lot right this year. But, again, I think we need guys who are really physical – not just packhorses. He’s had a great year and isn’t out of the frame.
[one_half last=”no”]
Ewen’s Picks
Rob Simmons, James Horwill, Kane Douglas, Luke Jones[/one_half][one_half last=”yes”]
My Picks
Rob Simmons, James Horwill, Luke Jones, Will Skelton[/one_half]
Backrow
Plenty to pick from here too. Michael Hooper will be the first man picked and Ewen will probably reward Matt Hodgson with the backup role. I disagree. Like the Tahs, the Wallabies use Hooper in plenty of set plays as an extra runner. No other team in world rugby has a 7 who can play this role. The Wallabies simply won’t be able to run those plays with Hodgson, so Sean McMahon from the Rebels should be the pick.
At 6, Scott Fardy is a lock; and Ewen will probably go with Dave Dennis behind him (especially if he’s going to experiment at lock, he’ll need an alternative lineout caller). I’m not sure this is necessary; Dennis has broken only 2 tackles all season long. I’d instead go with all three of Ben McCalman, Scott Higginbotham, and Wycliff Palu.
Higginbotham has been in horrific form of late, but he’ll still get the nod. His inconsistency remains infuriating, not to mention that the stuff he’s been doing well is all improvisation and flair – not the core skills Ewen wants to be seeing for test rugby. If not for his lineout ability, he might miss out altogether. Palu plays the exact same style of 8 as McCalman, so I think rotating the two will prove fruitful in terms of injury management and for the players to learn off each other.
The real problem here is discipline. Higginbotham has given away a staggering 23 penalties in Super Rugby this year. Fardy has given away 19 (as has Hodgson). That’s one and two in the whole comp. If Ewen can’t get these guys to clean up their act at the breakdown, it really doesn’t matter what the rest of the team is doing.
The other issue is lineouts. Simmons remains a masterful lineout operator, a number 1 jumper, and an effective ball stealer on the opposition’s throw. If other guys are going to be playing lock over the next eighteen months, then someone else needs to step up in this area. In all likelihood, Ewen will look to Horwill and Dave Dennis, but I’d like to see Scott Fardy, Luke Jones, and Scott Higginbotham all working heavily on their lineout prowess (and discipline – refs are getting very finicky about interference in the air). Skelton will never be a lineout factor, which only underscores the importance of diversifying the number of jumpers in the pack.
[one_half last=”no”]
Ewen’s Picks
Michael Hooper, Matt Hodgson, Scott Fardy, Dave Dennis, Scott Higginbotham, Ben McCalman[/one_half][one_half last=”yes”]
My Picks
Michael Hooper, Sean McMahon, Scott Fardy, Scott Higginbotham, Ben McCalman, Cliffy Palu[/one_half]
Scrum Halves
Luke Burgess’ injury looks like it’ll rob him of a spot here. Burgess is still the same type of player he was when he left: he tackles hard around the ruck and offers a fantastic running game, though his kicking and game management are way behind the other candidates. I suspect Ewen will go for three scrum halves, with Nick Phipps retaining the number three spot behind Nic White and Will Genia.
I’d only pick 2. White and Genia are easily the two best 9s running around and we need spots in the squad elsewhere. Phipps just tries too hard and, while I think it’s almost inevitable he’ll be picked in a 32 man squad, I don’t think he’s up to test standard.[one_half last=”no”]
Ewen’s Picks
Nic White, Will Genia, Nick Phipps[/one_half][one_half last=”yes”]
My Picks
Nic White, Will Genia[/one_half]
Fly Halves
In a sense, Quade Cooper’s injury couldn’t have come at a better time: he looks like he needs a break to refresh his game. We all hope it’s not serious.
That being said, Matt Toomua has been the form 10 in Australia all season. His defence adds a fantastic extra string to his bow; is there a 10 in world rugby who tackles better than him?
Bernard Foley remains a bit rough. He still gets overtaken by the sevens temptation to push the low percentage pass. His left-to-right passing has actually cost the Tahs two tries this year when he’s just had to draw the fullback and hit the winger. And his goalkicking isn’t quite top shelf. But I think Ewen will see him as a project to work on: his ability to find the gap and his support play are both just too good not to get him picked.
I think it’s inevitable that Ewen will also pick Kurtley Beale here. I wouldn’t for now, for two reasons. First, it’s very unclear what role he’d actually be fulfilling on the field. Is he a 15? Is he the fourth-string fly-half? Or is he, somehow, now an option at 12? These are three very different roles, requiring different skillsets. For instance, for one of those roles, you need to be rock solid under the high ball (which he isn’t), while for the other two you don’t need to practice that skill at all. For that matter, is he a goalkicker? If so, he needs to actually be kicking regularly.
I think Kurtley needs to decide what job he’s in contention for before the coach can pick him, otherwise he just risks becoming a permanent squad member with no hope of starting. If he’s just a bench utility, he’ll keep playing like one – a free role player trying to add something every time he steps on the park. We want him to be a part of the Wallaby’s attack, not apart from it. Second, his judgment still lets him down. Like Quade, Kurtley looks best when he does the simple things really well: few players time a pass better than Beale. But all too often, he looks to push the game with the low percentage option. I hope Kurtley’s looked a lot at the tapes of Quade’s spring tour.[one_half last=”no”]
Ewen’s Picks
Matt Toomua, Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale[/one_half][one_half last=”yes”]
My Picks
Matt Toomua, Bernard Foley[/one_half]
Centres
This is where things get really tricky. Before Quade’s injury, I think Ewen would, oddly enough, end up selecting no fewer than four Brumbies for roles in the centres: Toomua, Christian Lealiifano, Pat McCabe, and Tevita Kuridrani. I still think he’ll largely do the same, only with Toomua now firmly in the 10 box.
But Cooper’s injury opens up other options. Again, I’d like to see us picking two similar types of players. If, as last year, the Wallaby 12 is going to be both a good passer and a good defender, then I think Kyle Godwin simply has to be picked as a like for like for Matt Toomua. Godwin is pure class
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KCPXFfogjc
His defense has been on show all year, though the Force’s style hasn’t allowed him to shine on offense like last year. The fact that he can kick with his left foot is a bonus. He has a great running game and with a background at 10, he has vision and understands where the ball needs to go. His time is now. Lealiifano has been in very average form since coming back from injury, but I think Quade’s absence might just save him as Godwin’s back-up.
The real issue here is Pat McCabe. I agree that McCabe’s looked a lot more skilful this year than previously. But can he play 12 in Ewen’s sytem? I doubt it. On the other hand, he looks like he might have an ideal skill set for 13 – I’d like to see him playing more there.
Rob Horne deserves a go here too. It’s easy to forget, but he is a 13. He was asked to play 12 last year and wing this year, and he’s been good in both roles. He’s a great defender and runs hard. I’d want to pick both of these guys; they really remind me of each other. Pat McCabe has 73 runs and 24 tackles bust this season, and 48 tackles made for only 5 misses. for Rob Horne has 44 runs for 22 tackles bust, and 65 tackles made… and none missed. All season long. That’s what you want at 13. Horne deserves another go.[one_half last=”no”]
Ewen’s Picks
Christian Lealiifano, Pat McCabe, and Tevita Kuridrani[/one_half][one_half last=”yes”]
My Picks
Kyle Godwin, Christian Lealiifano, Pat McCabe, Rob Horne, and Tevita Kuridrani[/one_half]
Outside Backs
Ewen must be desperate for Henry Speight to become eligible for the Wallabies. He’s the real deal. I suspect Ewen will go for the same guys as one the spring tour. For me, it remains tough to know what to do about Adam Ashley-Cooper. He’s developed into the bedrock of this team. Along with Moore and Hooper, he simply barely ever makes a mistake (his dropped high ball in the drawn test against the All Blacks two years ago sticks out exactly because it was so out of character).
At 13, you get his peerless defence in a key role and that incredible fend, plus he’s more often involved in the breakdown where he’s an underrated weapon. On the wing, you get less of these things, but his tendency to carry the ball rather than pass it isn’t a huge issue (though I would like to see him on the left or brought in on set plays so that fend remains in use). I’d stick with the latter and try to develop Horne and McCabe at 13.
I remain very unconvinced by Tomane, but except for maybe Tom English, there’s no-one putting their hand up in a serious way to be the type of multi-skilled winger you need at test level.[one_half last=”no”]
Ewen’s Picks
Israel Folau, Nick Cummins, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Jesse Mogg, Joe Tomane[/one_half][one_half last=”yes”]
My Picks
Israel Folau, Nick Cummins, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Jesse Mogg, Tom English[/one_half]
So that’s that. A squad for a more muscular Wallaby game plan. Hardly the final word, but a good start.
Possible Bolters: Jarrad Butler, Tom English, Kieran Longbottom, Alofa Alofa.
Surely a Step in the Wrong Direction Yet Somehow Still in the Conversation: Greg Holmes, Dom Shipperley, Ben Mowen, Kane Douglas, Paddy Ryan.
