Well, that’s it for another year, with no Aussie teams progressing to the finals, we can start the post mortems.
Below are some stats so you can see how each of teams performed relative to each other and perhaps why they performed so well, or in the case of the Reds, why they were so shit!!!
End of Season Team Stats
| Team | Kicks in general play | Penalties Conceded | Offloads | Turnovers | Effective Tackle % | Breakdown Win % | Scrum Win % | Line-out win % | Tries |
| Bulls | 485 | 81 | 75 | 236 | 82% | 92% | 91% | 86% | 37 |
| Chiefs | 394 | 78 | 122 | 283 | 84% | 92% | 87% | 75% | 43 |
| Hurricanes | 359 | 87 | 141 | 267 | 85% | 93% | 93% | 74% | 49 |
| Crusaders | 395 | 61 | 124 | 247 | 85% | 92% | 94% | 86% | 27 |
| Waratahs | 411 | 69 | 141 | 215 | 84% | 93% | 94% | 77% | 28 |
| Sharks | 407 | 74 | 125 | 250 | 82% | 91% | 91% | 86% | 31 |
| Brumbies | 402 | 68 | 135 | 244 | 85% | 91% | 88% | 83% | 36 |
| Western Force | 396 | 85 | 111 | 230 | 87% | 92% | 92% | 84% | 42 |
| Blues | 317 | 64 | 151 | 269 | 84% | 93% | 94% | 80% | 47 |
| Stormers | 427 | 82 | 118 | 248 | 82% | 91% | 88% | 85% | 28 |
| Highlanders | 355 | 77 | 140 | 237 | 86% | 93% | 91% | 78% | 32 |
| Lions | 349 | 91 | 132 | 243 | 81% | 92% | 93% | 76% | 36 |
| Reds | 403 | 81 | 156 | 289 | 82% | 92% | 92% | 82% | 36 |
| Cheetahs | 402 | 87 | 101 | 240 | 83% | 91% | 87% | 84% | 26 |
| Average | 385 | 77 | 131 | 248 | 84% | 92% | 91% | 81% | 35 |
The Finalists
Well, what a hoax the ELV’s turned out to be. The Bulls kicked more and off-loaded less than any other team in the competition and they come out in front. I guess when you are equal leaders in line-out win %, why not kick, plus when you have the worst turnover/offload ratio in the competition, there isn’t much motivation to keep having a crack now is there.
Based on the stats above, I’m forecasting the Bulls vs Crusaders game this weekend will have around 70 kicks in general play, I won’t be getting up in the middle of the night to watch that one!
Interesting to see the Canes and Chiefs have the lowest line-out win %, not a good sign coming into the finals where bonus points and attacking rugby takes a back seat to possession and grinding out results. This stat takes on even more significance when you look at the other two teams in the finals, one of which the Canes or Chiefs will play next week.
Add to this the pretty ordinary scrum win % of the Chiefs and it is clear that the backs have gotten the Chiefs to the finals rather than the forwards.
I was also surprised to see the amount of turnovers relative to offloads for the Chiefs, I thought they would have been better performed than that, in fact, their ratio is equal with the Cheetahs.
The Canes were equal second in penalties conceded and the Saders conceded the least. In my mind it confirms the long held suspicion that referee’s are scared to penalise Richie even though he is a cheating bastard.
Australian Teams
Just when I was beginning to think the Reds had achieved nothing this season, I was proved wrong as they ended up leading the competition in turnovers conceded – well done boys!! This is a little misleading as they also had more offloads than any other team as well.
The Force were the naughty boys of the Australian teams giving away the most penalties but other than that, when you look at their stats, how the fuck did they miss the finals? They scored 42 tries, had a better than average scrum and line-out, and the best effective tackle % of any team.
The Brumbies’ scrum win % is the poorest of any of the other Australian teams, by a considerable margin in relation to the Tahs. I guess that means we mightn’t see the Brumbies props feature in the Wallabies this year?
The Tahs, well one stat screams from the page, tries scored – absolutely damming. The other surprise was the piss-poor line-out win %, maybe the Tahs missed Vickers and Rocky more than we thought?
<span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="3088 https://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/?p=3088">6 Comments
its the bull’s to lose in my opinion. if oliver is out in the semi finals, it will be tougher, but still, playing at loftus will be the difference.
why add another australian team? look what happened when South Africa did it, you have the cats become the lions and the cheetahs, but no results to follow. a combo of those two teams would be far better. In a country where league, afl, soccer are all going against rugby, it would be hard to argue that another team would bennifit anyone other than john o’neil.
not really related to anything, but in a year when the lions are going to sa, why have the wallibies picked such a weak june test lineup? two matchs against italy is overkill, how about helping the pacific islanders and pumas by playing them…
Nice post, but don’t you feel like stats are so often skewed that you can’t trust them? For example according to foxsports all the best s14 players come from oz. I think you just need to watch every game to work out who’s good at what. Try explaining that to the mrs or your favourite merino.
For example according to foxsports all the best s14 players come from oz.
Interesting point – that does seem to be right. I wonder what the stats in NZ say, (or Riga for that matter….)
Maybe Australia has all the best players, balanced out by all the shit ones we have? (not an actual belief of mine, just random musing)
It would be interesting to see an averaging of the stats (total fox sports points, or maybe a points/minute played) from all players from respective teams/countries and seeing whether the stats actually correlate with success on the field.
ELVs have shifted importance to Territorial play, hence the kicking, no surprise really, as teams are continaully now training to take advantage of peoples errors rather than structure a good try through 14 odd pahses. Not saying it doesnt happen, but more tries are scored within 4 phases of turnover ball now, teams preying on errors.
the improtance of the scrum is also underestimated, many Kiwi and Safa teams opting for the set piece within the attacking 30 should they be given the half arm and not get quick taps happening.
ahh well…
Canes to travel to Bulls for the final.
Yep Bulls to win.