Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest’s recent remarks regarding a so called Indo Pacific competition bring with it some interesting ideas. He appears to be focusing on the Asian region directly to the north of WA and starting small – probably a wise idea. Below outlines a bolder vision for an Asia Pacific competition that could push World Rugby forward.
Asian Rugby
For many years, Asian governing bodies have talked of an elite competition – in Hong Kong (where this author played and knows well), the talk was always of eventual admission into an expanded Super Rugby competition. Perhaps it was ambition above reality, but where there was ambition, there is hope.
Like Hong Kong, Singapore had a small local competition that supports a (largely expat) local playing pool with a smattering of imports that have a variety of experiences in Australia, Europe and New Zealand at club and professional levels. That standard isn’t bad – perhaps say 3rd grade Shute Shield – but the depth is not there.
Singapore do also have a new stadium – host to the World Rugby 10’s – that needs content. It doesn’t appear to be full very often for Rugby, but government support is often there for sports teams in Singapore, including the Sunwolves in Super Rugby.
In Asia, the highest standard of Rugby played by many of these players is internationally via the Asian 5 nations. Hong Kong are quite strong, regularly competing with, but almost always losing to Japan. HK are ranked 22 ahead of Korea, 31. Korea is also probably the next best nation in the region having previously won the Asian Championship and being runner up on many occasions.
Japan is an obvious Rugby nation, now regularly in the top tier and hosting the RWC in 2019. Their competition continues to develop and they’ve been strong competitors with a well supported team in the Sunwolves Super Rugby team.
North American Rugby
For many years, there has been discussion of an elite North American league also and it has a history of its own. In 2016, PRO Rugby was the first fully professional rugby competition in the USA with teams in Sacramento, San Francisco, San Diego, Columbus and Denver. Notably, most are on the West Coast of the USA. The competition had plans to expand, possibly into Canada – Vancouver and Toronto. Players were paid around $25-40,000 for their services and grounds capacity of between 2,000 – 12,000. Matches were streamed online via ONE world sports. The competition ended after just one season.
Interestingly, the USA has around 115k registered participants. Australia has around the same number (lower if you accept Roy Morgan research’s 63k). USA is ranked 17 in the world internationally and their mens 7s team has been improving rapidly and are currently ranked 5, ahead of Australia and many other top nations. So there is interest in Rugby in the USA, and it is growing.
The same would be said for Canada, who are regulars at World Cup’s and have a strong Rugby history. They’re ranked 24 and are regularly
Pacific Rugby
Fiji are a powerhouse in Rugby, they are the Olympic 7s (mens) champions and regularly ranked in the top 10 nations in 15’s. They also provide many players to other nations via heritage or naturalisation. In a population of 950k, they have around 80k participants (almost 10% of their population).
Tonga are a second tier nation (ranked 14) that have a strong history and record. Like Fiji, there are players all around the world with Tongan heritage. They have around 7k participants, which probably only highlights how much they punch above their weight.
Samoa are a second tier nation (ranked 16) but have such strong pedigree. They produce many players that play all through Europe and Super Rugby but have recently fallen from their lofty heights in the 1990s.
How a united Asia Pacific competition could work
This isn’t easy and the commercial case almost certainly would be challenging, but uniting Asia and the Pacific could work. There would be some travel, but no more than Super Rugby.
The competition could run for 8 matches home and away over 8 weeks plus two weeks of finals, culminating in a “Superbowl” (just to enthuse the Americans). This would include a play-off between East and Pacific (West). Essentially this would be an Asia-Pacific vs North America fixture.
The key to any of these competitions will be broadcast – it’s the lifeblood of sport. Bringing in the USA, Canada and Japan would help with this – collectively a possibly a huge market. It would need strong marketing and intelligent cost management (using local production outlets). Japan isn’t included above, but you’d be silly not to consider it. Japanese rugby brings big dollars – sponsors, broadcast and viewers AND they’re the largest Asian Rugby nation.
On that basis, perhaps you would ignore Korea/Singapore and have 1-2 Japanese teams and a HK team. They would be attracted to playing Islander and Australian teams to raise their own standards.
Conversely, teams in large US markets such as LA, San Francisco and Denver might give it the best chance to thrive. Bringing in a collection of nations also gives this global appeal. Possibly the largest revenue driver for a comp like this could be European TV rights – which also drives big Super Rugby dollars. Bringing in the US market provides a different time zone – early afternoon rugby would be the night in the UK. Saturday night in West Australia/Japan is midday in the UK.
Revenues
- Broadcast deals would be difficult due to multiple jurisdictions – without a decent broadcast deal, this comp would never work longer term, though streaming over the top could make it more feasible to gain initial traction and broadcast costs are coming down quickly
- Sponsorship would be challenging but in markets like Perth, Fiji, Hong Kong and the USA you would have high profile commercial supporters
- Gate revenue: this would probably vary, but they could probably play in stadiums between 5-15k. This keeps stadium costs down and might give you the option to play out of boutique stadiums that have a great atmosphere. In many ways, this would be similar to Shute Shield or the Second Division in England. There would be exceptions to this, like the Force or Fiji. So an average crowd size of 5-8k would be a good result for a second tier. Assumption being that this would run break even – gate takings are equal to cost of venue hire.
- Government grants: expect governments such as those in Pacific nations and WA to contribute to funding. In addition, assuming this was a sanctioned competition, the IRB would likely provide some funding (as they have for the Drua in the NRC)
High level indicative costs
- Team wages: this assumes that the league would pay players, though this would not necessarily be the case. This works out at $2,500 per week for 12 weeks – this is a decent wage, so this would probably be a semi-pro competition similar to Division 2 in the UK or Italy. Keeping in mind that this would be a wage for a 12 week period only and some players would be paid less to cater for higher calibre players getting more.
The way this could work is that wages would be subsidised by any league wide sponsorships or broadcast deals.
- Travel costs: Assumes economy based travel (Super Rugby travel business class) which wouldn’t please players. Accommodation would average out at 3 nights per match for a travelling team. Tours would mean some teams are on the road.
- League overheads and marketing: the league would need a team to setup up contracts, sell sponsorships, do broadcast deals. This is a very lean structure, but you possibly base it in a low tax/cost jurisdiction (eg. Hong Kong) to help with this.
For the love, not the money
Revenues would probably not cover the costs and you’d expect many teams to lose money. There would also have to be a strong broadcast angle to bring “eyeballs” to the game. If this didn’t happen, it would be unsustainable. Broadcasters would probably run it ‘at cost’ in its early stages so the losses would be more significant. Alternatively, a bold ‘over the top’ broadcast coupled with free to air might be interesting.
The top players will play in the top tiers, but this could be an interesting second tier for good players that are on the fringes with a smattering of ‘marquee talent’ to add some interest.
This competition would be your typical start up – it would probably lose a lot of money for at least a few years. On that basis, like NRC and/or global Soccer, you’d probably look to investors to purchase teams and run their own losses to fund the competition. This would be about love, not money!
Something that includes the USA, Pacific Islands, Asia and Australia would be unique. It would combine nations that don’t currently have strong professional representation, so it would be great for global rugby. Bringing an established brand like the Western Force could bring legitimacy to the competition.
With the backing of someone like Andrew Forrest, it could just work… he could bring the required seed capital to get something moving. We’ll see.
