This will be an absolute cracker of a game! Both teams play with positive intent, using all fifteen players as part of their game. The two best fullbacks in world rugby are on show and the best halfback. Right across the backline there are stars to burn: Fekitoa vs Ashley-Cooper, Naholo vs Horne, Osborne vs Naiyaravoro, Foley vs Sopoaga. Great to watch, whoever wins.
The Missing:
Both teams are missing key players:
The Waratahs’ Kurtley Beale has failed a fitness test on his quad strain and will be replaced by Matt Carraro. Despite what the haters say about his play, Beale is a key member of the backline as second playmaker and an integral part of how it works. His replacement, Matt Carraro, is an outside centre/winger and while defensively strong is not a second playmaker. The whole Waratahs backline delivery system depends on Beale and Foley working in tandem to get the ball to their attacking runners. I wonder why Lance, a specialised 10/12, was not preferred and I expect the attack to be seriously impeded by Beale’s loss, particularly as on paper the Highlanders’ backs are the stronger combination.
The Highlanders lose Dan Prior, who dislocated his elbow last week. Prior, who has been in excellent form, is replaced by James Lentjes. This will weaken the Highlander forwards, who are already weakened at lock, and Alex Ainley has been under an injury cloud all week and likely not to be 100%. As much as the Highlanders’ backs appear on paper to be stronger than their opposition, so too the Waratahs forwards are stronger than their counterparts. Not one Highlanders’ forward made the NZ train-on squad.
But that’s on paper. What matters is how they perform on the day.
The Attacks:
The Waratahs:
Under Cheika, they play the game with pace and power. Every player is expected to run hard at the gain line and dominate the collision. Pods of forwards are stationed ten metres to the side of the ruck and they will drive forward hard seeking the half-break and then off-load. The backs operate behind these pods and Foley has three options: run, pass to the forward pod or pass to the backs (usually Beale first, but not this week). They usually operate between the tramlines, seldom venturing into the outside five metres. In the last few weeks Naiyaravoro has been coming in from the blind for the inside ball at pace. They rarely kick on attack, choosing to keep the ball in hand.
The Highlanders:
Despite having one of the most lethal back threes in the competition (maybe only the Hurricanes are comparable) on kick return the Highlanders generally run up to the line and then kick, seeking to choke the defenders as they take the high ball and look for turnovers (they are second in the comp for making turnovers); Fekitoa is particularly good at stripping the ball in the tackle. Once the turnover is achieved, then the backline is set loose and at that point Fekitoa, Osborne, Ben Smith or Naiholo can take you apart collectively or individually. Aaron Smith also runs a lot from turnovers while the defence is in disarray. They often get the ball to the outside five metres for Osborne and Naiholo to finish.
The Defences:
The Waratahs:
When they are “on”, the Waratahs have one of, if not the best defence in the competition. They look to domiate the collisions with their big forwards, pushing their opponents behind the gain line. The backs get up in the face of the opposing backline looking to chop off access to the wings and turning the attack back inside where the Waratah forwards can get at the ball-runner. They are vulnerable on the outside to both the wide ball and the chip/grubber kick, though this can be a dangerous strategy if Folau gets to the kick first. They are also vulnerable to forwards trying for the big hit and missing, leaving a yawning gap in the line (this is called a “Jackpot special”).
The Highlanders:
The Highlanders forwards are primarily used for the set piece and for defence. Their strategy is to seek to get field position and then use their forwards to lock down the ball and achieve turnovers, which they are good at doing. They are all good, old-school workhorses who leave the fancy stuff to the backlines.
The Set Piece:
This will be a fascinating battle within the battle. Neither team uses the set-piece as an attacking weapon like the Brumbies use the lineout and the Stormers use the scrum. If one team really steps it up this could decide the game. The Waratahs will fancy their scrum to dominate, the Highlanders will be looking to attack the Waratah lineout, which gets disfunctional in a lot of games. Given that the Waratahs will likely kick into the stand when they do kick to prevent quick throw-ins to release the Highlanders’ back three, I hope the Waratahs have done some work on pinching opposition throws during the week.
Overall:
The two teams seem evenly matched: the Highlanders have better backs and the Waratahs better forwards. If the old adage that “the forwards decide who wins and the backs decide the margin” is true then it looks like a Waratah win by not very many. It will be an absolute cracker of a game.
Waratahs by three in a cliffhanger.
