This week sees the Southern Hemisphere enter the fray in the penultimate weekend of World Cup warmup matches. Let’s dive in.
Wales v South Africa
3:15 BST, 1:15 am (Sunday) AEST. Cardiff
Wales:
15 Liam Williams, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Mason Grady, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Kieran Hardy, 1 Corey Domachowski, 2 Elliot Dee, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 4 Ben Carter, 5 Will Rowlands, 6 Dan Lydiate, 7 Jac Morgan (capt), 8 Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: 16 Sam Parry, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Henry Thomas, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Taine Basham, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Max Llewellyn, 23 Cai Evans.
South Africa:
15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 1 Steven Kitshoff, 2 Malcolm Marx, 3 Frans Malherbe, 4 Jean Kleyn, 5 RG Snyman, 6 Siya Kolisi (capt), 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Jasper Wiese.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Duane Vermeulen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Damian Willemse.
Prediction:
This looks like a mixed team from Wales, with chunks of it close to what I expect will be the starting XV for most of the World Cup matches, chunks of it players looking for spots in the squad. While it’s not quite the strongest South African side they could name, it’s pretty close – arguably only Etzebeth is missing.
If Wales is to advance out of the pool stages, it will be built on a miserly defence and a sufficient attack. Not necessarily quite as solid as it always looked with Edwards in charge, but robust and scrambling hard still works. While the heart always hopes, I can’t see Wales winning in my head. I hope it stays close as Wales prevent the Bokke scoring too easily. History tends to support this idea.
South Africa by seven.
Ireland v England
5:30 pm BST, 3:30 am AEST. Dublin.
Ireland:
15 Keenan, 14 Hansen, 13 Ringrose, 12 Aki, 11 Lowe, 10 Byrne, 9 Gibson-Park, 1 Porter, 2 Sheehan, 3 Furlong, 4 Beirne, 5 Ryan, 6 O’Mahony, 7 van der Flier, 8 Prendergast.
Replacements: 16 Herring, 17 Loughman, 18 Bealham, 19 McCarthy, 20 Doris, 21 Murray, 22 Crowley, 23 Earls.
England:
15 Freddie Steward, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Joe Marchant, 12 Manu Tuilagi, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Ben Earl, 6 Courtney Lawes (c), 5 David Ribbans, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George, 1 Ellis Genge, Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Jack Willis, 21 Danny Care, 22 Marcus Smith, 23 Ollie Lawrence
Prediction:
Really with the obvious exception of exception of Sexton, this is almost the strongest Irish team. Swap Doris for Prendegast and it would be. It’s going to be interesting to see how Ireland go with Byrne, and potentially Crowley off the bench, but everything else should work nicely. Possibly with a little bit of rust to be knocked off but England have not shown enough to really trouble them. It’s more a case of how well they fire with a new flyhalf. Or not.
I think Borthwick probably considers this his best 23, certainly in light of the appeal against Farrell’s red card being rescinded. I’m not sure I agree but I’m not the England coach (thank goodness). The main thing of interest will be whether England under Ford’s leadership use different tactics or not. I can’t see it to be honest.
Ireland by 15.
Italy v Romania
5:30 pm BST, 3:30 am AEST. (Yes this is on at the same time as Ireland v England) San Benedetto del Tronto.
Italy:
15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Paolo Odogwu, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Luca Morisi, 11Montanna Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Toa Halafihi, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Dino Lamb, 4 Niccolò Cannon, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Ivan Nemer Replacements: 16 Epalahame Faiva, 17 Federico Zani, 18 Pietro Ceccarelli, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Lorenzo Cannon, 21 Alessandro Fusco, 22 Thomas Allan, 23 Lorenzo Pani
Romania:
15 Hinckley Vaovasa, 14 Marius Simionescu, 13 Jason Tomane, 12 Taylor Gontineac, 11 Nicolas Onuțu, 10 Mihai Mureșan, 9 Alin Conache, 1 Iulian Hartig, 2 Ovidiu Cojocaru, 3 Alexandru Gordas, 4 Adrian Moțoc, 5 Ștefan Iancu, 6 Damian Strătilă, 7 Vlad Neculau, 8 Cristi Chirica (C)
Replacements: 16 Florin Bărdașu, 17 Alexandru Savin, 18 Gheorghe Gajion, 19 Mihai Macovei, 20 Dragoș Ser, 21 Florin Surugiu, 22 Gabriel Pop, 23 Manumua Tevita
Prediction:
Really this finally looks like a full strength Italy, and it will be great to see Capuozzo playing again. Romania are no longer a powerhouse in the Shadow Six Nations, that’s gone to Georgia, and Portugal are a better side this year as well. This should be a match that Italy win and knock the rust out as they gear up for France in three weeks time. Not necessarily an easy contest at all times, but still a win.
Italy by ten.
France v Fiji
9:05 CET, 6:05 AEST. Nantes.
France:
15 Jaminet, 14 Bielle-Biarrey, 13 Vincent, 12 Danty, 11 Moefana, 10 Hastoy, 9 Lucu, 8 Alldritt (cap.), 7 Cretin, 6 Cros, 5 Willemse, 4 Verhaeghe, 3 Atonio, 2 Mauvaka, 1 Wardi.
Replacements: 16 Bourgarit, 17 Gros, 18 Laclayat, 19 Chalureau, 20 Flament, 21 Macalou, 22 Serin, 23 Jalibert.
Fiji:
15 Sireli Maqala, 14 Josua Tuisova, 13 Iosefo Masi, 12 Semi Radradra (c), 11 Vinaya Habosi, 10 Caleb Muntz, 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Viliame Mata, 7 Levani Botia, 6 Meli Derenalagi, 5 Te Ahiwaru Cirikidaveta, 4 Isoa Nasilasila, 3 Mesake Doge, 2 Tevita Ikanivere, 1 Eroni Mawi Replacements: 16 Sam Matavesi, 17 Peni Ravai, 18 Luke Tagi, 19 Temo Mayanavanua, 20 Albert Tuisue, 21 Simione Kuruvoli, 22 Jiuta Wainiqolo, 23 Ilaisa Droasese
Prediction:
This is a bit of a mixed squad from France. Vincent for Fickou, Bielle-Biarrey is good, but not Penaud, likewise Moefana is good, but not Villière. Lucu and Serin are not Dupont (who is?). Fiji have looked good against a Japanese side that was really good in 2019 but seems much weaker this year, Samoa and Tonga. The Drua playing in Super Rugby Pacific, and forming the backbone of their squad, has done a lot for the cohesion. However, all of the sides we’ve seen them play so far are, with the greatest of respect, a step down from France at home, even a less than full-strength France. This will be one to watch. Honestly, I don’t know what the outcome will be. I think France will be too strong in the set piece and ground the Flying Fijians, which will be a shame. But if they can get even close to parity at the set-piece, Hastoy, Danty and Vincent doesn’t look as solid and familiar with each other as Ntamack, Danty and Fickou. It could be fun. Moefana sidelines as a 5/6 so expect some huge collisions on his wing too.
It could be Fiji by four but I’m going France by 15.
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