The Form
Is it back to the future again for the Melbourne Rebels? A promising start to the season brought undone by an all-pervading sense of mediocrity?
It’s hard to shake that feeling after last week’s effort, a 16-20 home loss to the deeply limited Lions. The Rebels got off to a flyer but were unable to capitalise on their possession and territory domination. They might consider themselves unlucky in having two tries overturned on marginal rulings, but good teams don’t win in the margins. Soft defence in the second half helped the Lions make the most of their limited opportunities and wind up deserved winners.
Rebels upset last week by Lions
That said the Rebels do look a tighter team in these early days than their earlier iterations. To date they’re conceding a reasonably miserly 21 points a game. Not phenomenal, but certainly a number that makes victory possible – a significant improvement on the 28 PPG conceded in 2014.
That they sit at 2-3, and tenth on the table, is a reflection on an attack that can only truly be described as flaccid. When their pack has given them front-foot ball the backline have shown the ability to make things happen. Once the movement begins to grind, and the burden of creation falls on shoulders not used to carrying the load, the play breaks down with depressing regularity.
By contrast the unbeaten Wellington Hurricanes are in scintillating nick, leading fans to once again wonder ‘is this our year?’ For a team that have written the book on how to be a flakey, if entertaining, disappointment – this lot must be a breath of fresh air.
They are a frighteningly good team, combining traditional Hurricanes flair with the brutish pragmatism that modern rugby requires. They’ve played tough when they needed to, grinding out wins against the Bulls and the Highlanders, and showed the ability to cut loose in a massacre of the Force in Perth.
In their five games so far they’ve conceded more than 13 points only once – and even then that was only 23 to a Blues team that had come to play. Riding their defence they’ve been able to call on the electric talents of Beauden Barrett, Ma’a Nonu and Julian Savea to get the job done when needed.
Sefania Naivalu – local product – starts for first time
The Players
The Rebels
A few changes have been made after last week’s disappointment.
Rookie Jack Debreczeni reclaims the flyhalf role from Mike Harris after he missed last week with injury. Sefa Naivalu, a Dewar Shield product, gets his first run-on debut after wing Dom Shipperley broke a hand against the Lions. Naivalu has impressed in limited minutes so far and will be keen to show he’s ready for the full 80.
In-form lock Lopeti Timani gets a weeks’ rest after having been injured in each of the last two games seeing the seemingly out-of-favour Caderyn Neville return to the starting side, having not made the 23 once in the first five games.
Cult hero Radike Samo comes on to the bench to make his Rebels debut, while Ben Meehan replaces veteran Luke Burgess at scrumhalf. Burgess was absolutely dreadful in his 15 minutes against the Lions, a swift fall from grace since his excellent Round 2 performance against the Waratahs.
A couple more milestones this week: Mitch Inman notches up 50 caps, Scotty Higginbotham gets to the big 100, and crowd favourite Laurie Weeks will become the most capped Rebel – fitting reward for one of the clubs great servants.
Scott Higginbotham – gets his 100th cap
The Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have elected, or the NZRU elected for them, to rest their All Black stars Beauden Barret, Julian Savea and Dane Coles for this one. Ardie Savea, younger brother of Julian, misses this one with injury.
In their place come James Marshall, Matt Proctor, Motu Matu’u and Callum Gibbins. while Jason Woodward replaces Nehe Milner-Skudder at fullback.
For most teams this would lead to a mild panic. These ‘Canes? Not so much. In the backline they still have talents of TJ Perenara, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, and Cory Jane to call on. In the forwards Victor Vito, Brad Shields and Jeremy Thrush are getting the job done.
Players to Watch
If the Rebels are to have any chance to win, they need to win the battle up front. Caderyn Neville will have a huge say in that, replacing the physically imposing Lopeti Timani. Neville needs to show he’s still up to it at this level, else I fear we might see him sliding from the scene come 2016.
The Hurricanes are a better team across the park than the Rebels, but the most pressure will be on the shoulders of flyhalf James Marshall to show he can step up in the absence of Beauden Barret.
Keep an eye on Motu Matu’u, Dane Coles’ replacement at hooker. In 2012 he destroyed Mark Gerrard and Lachie Mitchell with two of the hardest hits you’ll ever see. There’s hitting like a truck, and then there’s what this bloke does.
Motu Matu’u on the run – but watch him tackling
The Prediction
The Hurricanes will do this comfortably – too strong, too fast, too good. The Rebels will hang tough early, maybe even sneaking out to a small lead, before getting overrun.
Hurricanes by 18.
Hurricanes v Rebels
Reggie Goodes 1 Toby Smith
Motu Matu'u 2 Pat Leafa
Ben May 3 Laurie Weeks
Jeremy Thrush 4 Luke Jones
James Broadhurst 5 Cadeyrn Neville
Brad Shields 6 Sean McMahon
Callum Gibbins 7 Scott Fuglistaller
Victor Vito 8 Scott Higginbotham
TJ Perenara 9 Nic Stirzaker
James Marshall 10 Jack Debreczeni
Matt Proctor 11 Sefanaia Naivalu
Ma'a Nonu 12 Mitch Inman
Conrad Smith (c) 13 Tamati Ellison
Cory Jane 14 Tom English
Jason Woodward 15 Mike Harris
Reserves
Brayden Mitchell 16 Tom Sexton
Jeffery Toomaga-Allen 17 Cruze Ah-Nau
Chris Eves 18 Paul Alo-Emile
Mark Abbott 19 Radike Samo
Adam Hill 20 Colby Fainga’a
Chris Smylie 21 Ben Meehan
Otere Black 22 Bryce Hegarty
Nehe Milner-Skudder 23 Jonah Placid
Location: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Kickoff: Fri 27 Mar 17:35
Referee: Stuart Berry
Assistant Ref 1: Craig Joubert
Assistant Ref 2: Shane McDermott
TMO : Aaron Paterson
