Brian Smith shares his thoughts on the Wallaby vs Argentina semi-final with Richard Edwards from GAGR.
Henry has helped re-invent Argentina
Argentina is a very different team to the one that played in previous World Cups.
This is largely because of the time Graham Henry spent with them over the last three or so years.
Henry convinced them that their game plan, which was based on their scrum, maul and kick-chase needed an overhaul if they wanted to make a big impression on the world stage.
He got them to understand that, statistically, if you score more tries than your opposition you will win 95% of the time.
This change in thinking coincided with Argentina’s entry into the Rugby Championship where they’ve since been playing against the big boys from New Zealand, South Africa and Australia on a regular basis.
What we see today is a team that has become a serious threat.
They now believe that scoring tries is the way to win and they have a stack of players who can carve teams up.
Argentina’s ball players are world class
Nicolas Sanchez (10) and Juan Hernandez (12) are easily as good as their Wallaby counterparts.
I would even say that Sanchez is possibly the most dangerous running 10 in the competition.
Argentina get a big distribution game from both these players and, as to be expected, a massive kicking game too.
They also have some serious weapons in the back three that can finish really well.
So they now have the near complete backline to compliment a forward pack that is as strong as ever.
Make no mistake. Argentina is going to be a handful and the Wallabies will need to be at their best to progress to the big one.
But there are a few things the Wallabies can do to get the upper hand in what is going to be an epic tussle.
Wallabies have to exploit certain opportunities
The Wallabies should think about driving off the line-out early in the game for two reasons.
First, it will send a message to the Argentinian pack that the Wallaby forwards are not to be messed around with.
The other is it will expose the Argentinian 9 and 10, because their forwards will bite and commit more players to the maul to counter the drive.
Argentina’s inside backs aren’t the biggest blokes and yards are to be made by sending our forward runners down that channel.
But we won’t be able to do that straight off the kick off because the Argentinian forwards will have their heads up waiting for us.
So the drive will be needed to drag in the Argentinian forwards and create space on the fringes.
Australia should also keep playing through the forward pods in the middle, like they did last week. This should put the Argentinian wingers in two minds and create space on the edges.
Australia will need to get out of the own half as quickly as possible and try to use the scrum as a weapon.
If they can get on top of the scrum contest early and are seen by the referee to be the dominant pack, then the luck of the draw should go their way in the ‘close call’ scrum penalties.
Watch for the pendulum to swing
Argentina played out of their skins in their quarter final against Ireland and they were super excited after the game. But they may find it hard to come down from that and struggle to replicate the same form against Australia.
Even the All Blacks struggle to put unbelievable performances back-to-back and that display from Argentina last week was, for them, quite unbelievable.
The Wallabies, on the other hand, got a kick in the pants after their match against Scotland. So look for them to bounce back and be far more clinical this week.
Human nature is a funny thing and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the pendulum swing the Wallabies way on the weekend, particularly if they score early.
Wallabies depth will be tested
If Pocock or Folau are unable to play, they will be missed for sure, but we have others who can step up.
While Pocock has shown he is worth 3 or 4 turnovers a game and applies lots of pressure, McCalman has worked very hard and the young bull, McMahon, has shown he is willing and able to rip in.
It’s not like its Pocock and then day light. If he’s right, then fantastic. But if he’s not, we’ve got two battle hardened players who will make a very good show of themselves.
It’s a similar situation with Folau. At full fitness, he’s one of the best in the game. But he hasn’t really got going in this tournament because of his ankle injury and Beale is playing some of his best footy in ages.
If you had the option to play an 80% fit Folau, you’d probably go with a 100% fit Beale because he’d cover that margin and then some.
The Sio injury situation is a more difficult one. He’s played a huge role in the recent Wallaby scrum revival and it will be a big ask for Slipper to step in and play 80 minutes against a very powerful Argentinian scrum.
Slipper and Holmes have been doing a top job as front-row finishers, but starting is a different proposition completely.
Out of the three, Sio’s injury presents the greatest headache for Michael Cheika.
But you can bet that Ledesma has spent lots of time watching the tapes with the boys and they will have a clear plan for the weekend.
Australia to win, but not by much.
