Last night, with the wife out, a bottle of red wine breathing and a pizza ordered, I opened up the Green and Gold Rugby forum — and to my annoyance a number of threads were filled with the weekly Tom Carter debate. My initial thoughts on Carter’s game against the Cheetahs were that he was solid without being spectacular (which is often what I think of his performance). But with nothing better to do last night, half that bottle of red down and a recording of the match on the Foxtel IQ, I thought I would have a second, closer look.
I went through and rewatched the game focusing solely on Tom Carter and his involvement, to see whether the stats tell the full story and to see what kind of game he had. I set out on this mission in an attempt to end the debate once and for all, but I fear my analysis may have the opposite effect.
Let me stress again: wife out, red wine open, very bored.
Obviously there are limitations with doing this kind of analysis on a broadcast recording; you don’t have control of camera angles, the players on the screen and so on. Things that you can pick up at the ground are sometimes out of shot. But let’s give it a go anyway.
I’ll post my conclusions first, as I am sure some people may get bored with my detailed notes of all Carter’s moments of involvement below.
First, let’s start with Carter’s strength: defence. Carter is crucial to the Tahs’ defensive pattern and this is why he is in the team. There is no questioning his work rate and his one-on-one tackling ability. Along with Berrick Barnes he brings the line forward. The Fox Sports statistician credited him with 9 tackles; I counted 7 tackles where he was the main tackler and 3 assists. He didn’t miss a tackle in the game and was continually working hard to get to the outside position of the rush defence.
That outside position is vital and Barnes and Carter are typically the two filling it. The Cheetahs, however, didn’t really test the edges of the defence and only once got outside and made good metres. That instance looked like it was due to bad communication between Barnes and Carter (but that’s speculation).
Moving on to the attack, and I was very surprised by what I observed. First, the Fox stats had him with 9 runs and 3 tackle busts; I counted 8 runs and 2 tackle busts, so there’s no great discrepancy there. Interestingly, most of those runs were from set pieces where he was used in first phase to crash the ball up. The Tahs’s choices at the set piece became predictable during the game, so while Carter had some success early on with the hit-ups, later in the game his run was so obvious that he got hammered. The Tahs really need to get the ball wider in the first phase; I would like to see them mix things up with Carter and perhaps use him as a decoy ,with the blind winger running an arc behind to shift the ball wide.
What I observed in general play really surprised me. When the Tahs have the ball, Carter heads straight to the left wing and Drew Mitchell plays a roaming role. Now that is almost the opposite role from how Mitchell plays for the Wallabies, where James O’Connor is used in the roaming role. And I’m not sure it’s the best role for him, as I would rather see him stay out wide where he can find space and use his pace. Anyway, back to Carter: they appear to not trust him in general play and want to hide him on the wing — either that, or they just want to Mitchell involved more. In effect, this tactic reveals that the Tahs are not planning to play with much width and are relying heavily on individual brilliance.
In my opinion the Tahs really need to focus on their attack if they want to be a legitimate contender this year. The play in the weekend from the set piece was far too predictable, and I don’t know how successful they can be hiding their inside centre on the left wing. Having said that, I’ve also noted that Carter is crucial to the defence, so I am not sure what the answer is.
Anyway, following are my notes on Carter’s involvement in the game:
00:30 Barnes puts Carter in some space down the right touchline, three Cheetahs are coming across in cover but TC does well to make an extra five metres after contact and lays the ball back nicely. Good Start.
1:00 Carter in the same position on the right hand side receives the ball at first receiver; he has Pakalani outside him who appears open at first but the cover is coming across. Carter cuts inside a defender before the Cheetahs No. 8 takes him down. Slow ball for the Tahs as the tackler holds his feet in the tackle and contests. Carter probably took the right option in not passing but perhaps could have fought stay on his feet a bit longer.
2:30 TC almost gets in the way of a simple inside ball from Barnes to McCutcheon. I don’t know what he was doing or thinking and I don’t think he did either. Oddly, he backs completely out of the way and doesn’t get involved in the clean-out.
3:00 Barnes puts a grubber through, Turner is first there. Carter is the only other chaser, about five metres behind.
6:50 Palu makes a strong tackle and holds the ball carrier up. Carter latches onto the ball and slows it down. Gets to his feet and is warned by the ref for being offside.
8:30 Palu again makes a tackle, Carter comes in and assists. Once back on his feet he heads to the far side of the field. Two plays later the Cheetahs go wide; Carter and Barnes are too bunched and the Cheetahs make some easy metres around the outside. Looked like some poor communication between TC and BB.
11:40 TC pressures a clearance kick from Viljoen, with no real effect.
14:00 Kick from the Cheetahs in general play goes to Beale; Carter is first there to clean out.
17:00 Turner makes a tackle from first phase. Carter flops in afterwards.
17:30 Two plays later Carter does very well: after being the victim of obstruction he still makes his tackle. Ref penalises the Cheetahs for the obstruction; Carter does some stupid tough guy stuff while getting up.
18:30 Barnes chips for Turner on first phase. Turner regathers and has Carter on his outside open and Pakalani on his inside. He gives it to Pakalani who drops it. Turner didn’t seem to know Carter was there; perhaps another communication issue.
21:30 Tahs Scrum. Palu passes straight to Carter, who steps inside a defender shooting out of the line and makes good ground. Quick ball too.
22:45 Is second in the chase for a Burgess kick. The kick is marked, Carter doesn’t retire 10 metres and is pinged.
24:30 Barnes and Carter combine to tackle Duries well behind the advantage line. Cheetahs retain possession.
25:30 Carter’s turnover. He can thank Drew Mitchell for this. Burgess kicks, a good chase from Mitchell who makes the tackle, gets to his feet and contests the breakdown, forcing the Cheetahs to clean him out. Carter is the next man there and is free to pick up the pill. After gaining possession he is wrapped up quickly and a scrum is called.
33:45 Carter attempts charge down. No effect.
34:50 Tahs attacking lineout. Ball off the top, Barnes passes to Carter who is caught behind the advantage line. Holds his feet until support arrives. Tahs’ first phase play is becoming predictable.
So that’s the first half. I’m noticing an interesting ploy in attack: in general play Carter will head to the left-hand wing and Mitchell plays a floating role in the midfield in order to get involved more.
41:00 TC runs a decoy line from the scrum. Gets himself in an awkward position and hangs around for two rucks doing nothing and looking like he doesn’t know where he should be.
41:30 After looking lost for about a minute, Beale instructs him to run an inside ball off him. The play is horribly predictable and Carter is caught behind the advantage line, he falls awkwardly and is penalised for holding on.
45:00 Attempts charge down. No effect.
47:00 Tries a counter-ruck by himself against four Cheetahs, to no effect.
48:00 Tahs lineout. Barnes throws the ball in front of Carter and Turner who just stare at it.
48:50 Runs a scissors with Mitchell. Carter gets tackled strongly and loses the ball — it looks like a knock-on to me but is called backwards by the ref. Marto comments “Tom Carter couldn’t even punch it up.”
54:20 Tahs scrum. Barnes drops the pass. Carter tidies up and takes it forward. He’s hit heavily and driven backwards. Retains ball.
56:45 Makes a tackle on the goal line. Lies all over the ball, slows it up, not penalised. Good play.
59:30 Tahs attacking lineout. Carter decoy off Burgess. Barnes cross-kick. We know how that finishes. (Actually, looking at the replay it looks like the right option, just a poor kick).
62:20 Pakalani chases a kick and regathers the ball near the posts. Ball comes loose, Carter is the next man there, dives on it and secures possession. Very good play.
63:00 Mitchell has a 3-on-2 in the corner with Beale and Carter outside him. Beale cuts in and doesn’t give it.
64:50 Tahs five-metre scrum. Burgess straight to Carter. Tackled behind the advantage line, slow ball. So predictable.
66:30 Makes tackle in centre field on Cheetahs loosehead. Needs assistance to get him down. Good gain and quick ball for the Cheetahs.
67:30 TC not used at set piece. In the next phase he shovels it on to Beale who loses it.
71:00 Tahs regather their own 22-metre dropout. Ball goes from Burgess to Carter who draws his man and passes to Mitchell who kicks it out on the full.
73:00 TC makes regulation tackle 10 metres from own line in centre field.
76:30 Makes goal-line tackle.
78:40 Tries an ineffective counter ruck.
79:00 Nice break from Dennis. Carter cleans out. Quick ball for the Tahs.
80:00 Plays first receiver. Shovels it on to Mitchell. Receives pop pass back, takes it up and is hit hard.
