Competition for the Henry Plume Shield opens on Saturday, and since the talent seems to be more evenly distributed through the Associated Schools than it has been in recent years, we are set for a close and interesting competition.
In 2013 Barker was the team to beat from the outset and although Waverley furnished a strong challenge, Barker’s premiership surprised nobody.
Of those two teams: Barker looks a little weaker and Waverley is significantly weaker. Knox, a third contender, has enjoyed an impressive pre-season but it doesn’t look unbeatable.
Since the ten-round, home and away competition was introduced in 2009, there have seldom been more than two teams in contention at the half-way point of the season. Early signs are that in 2014 there could be at least three teams with genuine title hopes at the end of May.
The other three could be scrapping for fourth place. It is too difficult to assess what order this trio will finish in, but any of them could cause upsets which could decide the competition.
Ben Alexander – his old Knox team is highly favoured
Knox and Barker are shaping up as the two leading sides, which will add extra spice to their traditionally fiery local derby in Round One on Saturday.
Although the competition may throw up some surprises, my sense is that the 2014 season won’t be a vintage year for Associated Schools Rugby. There are good and even excellent players scattered throughout each of the schools this year, but few with an obvious claim to the highest representative honours.
There are not many standouts in the tight five positions, which could be telling in the CAS representative games.
The stars seem slightly less stellar than those we’ve seen in recent years. On the other hand, that creates opportunity for others to make a breakthrough—and part of the interest in Schools rugby is watching a good young player in the process of creating his reputation.
Barker
2013: 1st
Current Super Rugby alumni: Hugh Pyle (Rebels), Chris Alcock (Force)
Trial form: Modest. An unpersuasive win over St Stanislaus, a solid win over a below-strength Shore, and a close loss to Oakhill.
Snort’s view: Barker has won the last two Associated Schools premierships convincingly. This year’s 1st XV doesn’t look as strong, but it is likely to be highly competitive throughout the season and should challenge for another title.
Although the excellent Nic Burkett is back, the forwards are short on both experience and big reputations, but a Barker trademark in recent seasons has been an efficient, hard-working pack that gets the job done without relying on stars.
If the forwards can continue to perform with that level of reliability, then 9. Stephen Kirkby and 10. David Smerdon should create opportunities for their outside backs. Smerdon is in his third season of 1st XV Rugby and has improved steadily throughout that time; he loves to attack the line, and will carry the burden of sparking Barker’s attack.
Depth is Barker’s secret – they field more teams than anyone else, and often the players in the Seconds are nearly as good as their counterparts in the top side – and in the ten round competition, depth is vital.
2014 prediction: 2nd
Cranbrook
2013: 5th
Current Super Rugby alumnus: Ed Stubbs (Force)
Trial form: Encouraging. 36-7 was Cranbrook’s biggest win over Waverley for many a year, and there was a 29-10 win over St Pius, a solid win over St Stanislaus and a narrow loss to Shore.
Snort’s view: Hope springs eternal in Rose Bay, where year after year strong performances in the Under 16s are expected to translate into a potent 1st XV. It rarely actually happens, but this year could be different.
Flanker Hugh Summerhayes and No8 Nick Makas, a powerful runner, lead a willing, aggressive pack and No10 Sam Renton returns for a second 1st XV season a more confident and assured player.
He kicked accurately in the win over Waverley besides darting over for two tries to tally 26 points for the game. Winger Max Radoczy hasn’t quite established a starting spot, but looked a useful finisher in the trials.
If Cranbrook can keep its best side fit and on the field, it should finish in the top half of the table for the first time in several years.
2014 prediction: 3rd
Knox
2013: 4th.
Current Super Rugby alumni: Nic Stirzaker (Rebels), Nathan Charles (Force), Ben Alexander (Brumbies)
Matt Williams – Year Two of the experiment
Trial form: Solid. Outplayed by St Joseph’s, but pounded Newington and St Patrick’s. Running up some cricket scores in New Zealand in April doesn’t say too much about the side’s quality, but will have boosted its confidence.
Snort’s view: This is year two of the Matt Williams Experiment, and the season in which Knox will be expecting a dividend.
Knox starts the season as warm favourite for the Plume Shield, not only because of Williams’ guidance, but also because hooker James Widders-Leece (an Australian Indigenous Under-17 representative) and loose forwards Jake Pierce and Brett Van Zyl, form the core of a very strong pack—and centre Connor Watson is one of the most penetrative runners in the competition.
There seems to be plenty of depth, too. If there’s a question mark over the side, it’s the backline defence – but Knox has a coaching team that can fix that.
2014 prediction: 1st
St Aloysius
2013: 6th
Current Super Rugby alumni: Bernard Foley (Waratahs), Pat McCabe (Brumbies), Tom Kingston (Rebels)
Trial form: Sound. Comfortably accounted for St Pius. Comfortably accounted for by Shore.
Snort’s view: St Aloysius is fielding a young team that will be fit, determined and hard to beat; but they lack heft up front. Depth remains an issue, since the school has the smallest pool of players in the competition.
It’s hard to see St Aloysius finishing in the first three, but upsets are always possible on a bleak and windy afternoon at Willoughby. The elusive Rory Vevers is back for his third season of 1st XV Rugby, and Matt Renshaw has made a good impression in his early matches.
2014 prediction: scrapping for 4th.
Trinity
2013: 3rd
Current Super Rugby alumni: Jack Debreczeni (Rebels), Scott Sio and Fotu Auelua (Brumbies)
Trial form: Poor. Schooled 12-41 by St Stanislaus; perhaps unlucky to go down 10-12 to St Patrick’s.
Snort’s view: Now that the glow generated by the 2011 premiership and the 2013 centenary has faded, it’s back to business as usual at Trinity. In other words: they will have a dogged, willing team not quite good enough to press for the title.
Flanker George Corias and full-back Rihann Barkley-Brown can be dynamic, especially in attack, but Trinity will struggle to hold its own up front and and is usually plagued by a high mistake rate. On the days when they can win enough ball, and hang onto it for long enough, they could cause some upsets.
Scott Sio – his old Trinity team could cause upsets
There’s a new coaching team in Kai Ikeuchi (Trinity’s 1st XV captain from 2004) and Hugo Engele (last seen at Waverley) – former Brumby John Allen will be coaching the 13As.
No school has played as few as Trinity’s two trial matches, and there must be some concern that the side will go into Round One short on match practice and combination.
2014 prediction: scrapping for 4th.
Waverley
2013: 2nd
Current Super Rugby alumni: Tom English (Rebels), Stephen Hoiles and Jed Holloway (Waratahs)
Trial form: Woeful at first, but improving. The 7-36 loss to Cranbrook probably hurt just as much as the 0-82 thumping by powerhouse St Augustine’s. They also went down 12-39 to St Ignatius, but toughed out a win over St Patrick’s.
Snort’s view: Since Waverley joined the Associated Schools competition in 1944 it has been the most consistent performer in the Rugby competition. Even though it last held the Plume Shield in 2009, Waverley finished second in each of the last three seasons.
Liam Malloy and Jack Luland showed some bright touches in the trials, and Jake Smirnotis adds experience to the backs. But all the signs are that this year’s side will struggle. Sportsmaster Steve O’Donnell leads a new coaching team.
2014 prediction: scrapping for 4th.
