Preview: Southern Kings v Melbourne Rebels

Melbourne Rebels defeated at home by the Kings in 2013

The Melbourne Rebels will be hunting for their first ever win in South Africa when they conclude their tour of the Republic this weekend against the Southern Kings in Port Elizabeth.

In their only previous encounter, the Kings were victorious in Melbourne. They won 30-27, thanks to an 83rd minute drop goal from Dimitri Catrakilis.

In 2013 the Rebels had only been in Super Rugby for two seasons and the Kings were the new kids on the block. Four years later, both teams face an uncertain future with the likelihood that at least one of them will not have a team in 2018. The Kings have responded to their impending doom by having fun. They are playing rugby like a team that knows they only have to worry about what is in front of them. In contrast, the Rebels, in the words of Tony McGahan, “we’ll continue to fight and scrap like we did last week“.

Form

Southern Kings

In their last three matches, all played in Australia, the Kings have scored a combined total of 101 points, including fifteen tries. Two of their games were high scoring losses against the Force and the Reds. Last weekend, in what was possibly the club’s greatest win, they enjoyed victory over Australia’s most highly paid team, the Waratahs in Sydney.

The Kings game is based around winning turnover ball and their adventurous flyhalf, Lionel Cronje getting the ball into space for his hard running outside backs. As a team, they lead the competition in turnovers won per game. As a result, twelve of the Kings 27 tries this season have come from first phase ball and ten more have come from second or third phase.

The other side of the coin is the Kings defence, or lack thereof. They have conceded 37 tries and give up the ball to their opponents almost 18 times per game.

The Kings celebrate after beating the ‘Tahs

Melbourne Rebels

Since their Round Seven thumping at the hands of the Highlanders, the Rebels have beaten the Brumbies at home and drawn against the Sharks in Durban in a dour, tryless game.

Six competition points from two tough games is a better return than many would have expected. The Rebels defence in these past two games has been solid and the pressure they have applied to opposition ball has been outstanding. Unfortunately, the Rebels’ attack has been missing in action all season with a total of only nine tries scored to date.

Last week the rebels had up to eighteen players unavailable for selection. This week sees the return of Colby Fainga’a, Toby Smith, Dominic Day and Marika Koroibete. In something of a surprise selection, Ben Volavola will make his first start at flyhalf for the Rebels. They will go into the game with a 6/2 bench with Jack Debreczeni, Tom Moloney, Esei Hanga’ana and Sione Tuipulotu all omitted.

The Rebels ground out a draw last start

Key Match Ups

So, who should we keep an eye on this week?

Michael Willemse vs Siliva Siliva

The Kings Hooker, Michael Willemse, was one of the stars of the show in their win last week and has been a consistent performer at the set piece. Melbourne lad, Siliva has been named for his second consecutive start and is perhaps starting to show the ability that he has long promised.

Outside Backs

Unfortunately for the Kings, they are still missing their fullback and second playmaker in Malcolm Jaer. His replacement, Masixole Banda and wingers Wandile Mjekevu and Makazole Mapimpi may have been somewhat unknown at the start of the year but are making names for themselves with their scoring ability and post-try celebrations. Makazole Mapimpi has scored six tries from his seven games; that’s more than the Rebels back three combined.

On paper at least, Marika Koroibete, Sefa Naivalu and Reece Hodge should be more than a match for their counterparts. All of them have had their moments but none have been able to find open space regularly with the Rebels’ current game plan.

Makazole Mapimpi celebrates another try

Why bother?

Well, to be perfectly honest, I’m not sure it will be worth staying up all night to watch live. Particularly after the grind of the Sharks and Rebels last week. Nevertheless, there is a decent chance of a win for the Melbourne team and you are likely to see some exciting passages of attacking rugby. I will probably IQ this one and watch it first thing Sunday morning.

Prediction

Looking at the team’s relative statistics and recent form you would have to say The Kings at home. They lead the Rebels by a considerable margin in just about every attacking metric. Defensively and at set piece they are statistically very similar. However, the Kings are returning from a tough three week tour and the Rebels have added a few quality players to the side.

To win this game, the Rebels will need to score tries. They will not beat the Kings three points at a time.

The heart says, Rebels to win by three points.

Statistics courtesy of OPTA Sports

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