Preview: Wallabies vs Boks Brisvegas

Writing Wallaby test match previews has become a game of Russian roulette; you’re never quite sure which chamber is about to blow your brains across the internet. Fiji – click. Poms Perth – click. Poms Sydney – BOOM!

This probably explains why Robbie Deans has started to take on the haunted look of a prisoner out of the Deerhunter and we’ve become lax on writing the previews!

So ignoring that round lurking somewhere in the cylinder, here’s my thoughts on the game tomorrow.

As Austin pointed out so clearly in his video post, the All Blacks have shown us the key to beating the World Champs; aggressive defence. Hitting the Boks behind the gain-line is critical. It kills their forwards momentum and perhaps even more importantly neutralises their attacking kicking game, as an effective (onside) kick chase can’t be mounted.

The Wallabies can do this. See the game against the Poms in Perth and the Boks last year in Brisbane. The technique and skillset is no doubt there, but as the saying goes, “it’s all about the top two inches”. If I have a fear in this respect, it’s who will be the catalyst for the commitment and aggression that’s needed? In last year’s match up it was Polota-Nau who led the way with some fantastic hits. Who can do it this time around? In my mind this would be the single most important role Rocky Elsom could play as captain.

If I were the Boks, the area I would be targeting would be the set piece. While I don’t believe the Bok scrum is particularly formidable, Saturday’s Wallaby pack is at least 4 men down from its best, and hinges on Benn Robinson coming back from injury.

While the scrum could end up at about parity, the lineout  – a crucial attacking platform for the Wallaby backs – will have King Victor all over it. In the games last year where the Wallabies inexplicably let their Tri-Nations competitors off the hook, the lineout was a much underrated source of the Wallabies undoing. Even with a predominantly ball in hand game-plan, winning territory through penalties or a territorial kicking counts for nothing if the ensuing lineout is lost or spoilt.

However, assuming the Wallabies can get hold of enough quality ball, there is attacking opportunity aplenty. If Sanchez Genia can recapture his usual form, then I see him creating havoc with runs and flat passes to the likes of Faingaa, Sharpe and Elsom through the transition zone of the ruck. Having made three or four incisions past the gainline, expect the Bok up-and-in defensive line to be in tatters, offering Quade Cooper and Matt Giteau a veritable smorgasbord of holes to aim at.

Eddie Jones on Ruggamatrix pointed out that the majority of tries scored in this years Super 14 came in under 5 phases. In other words, endless recycling doesn’t magically create tries. Make the first few phases count, take that momentum and strike. Static ball is dead ball.

Injury, and it would seem random selection luck, has resulted in the Pee Divvy rolling out a faster, more dangerous side than the plodders who got walloped in the Shaky Isles;  with the likes of Kankowski, Pienaar and Aplon providing much needed speed in both attack and defence.

However, this has a been a long grind of a tour for the South Africans, at the end of which they traditionally falter. Add to the this the hoodoo of BrisVegas where they last won in 1971, and you’ve got to think this Wallaby team with the average age of 24yrs 11months (3rd lowest ever in Tri-Nations history, 28 months younger than RSA) and a pack weighing 41kg lighter should have the ability to play the pace of game that a Boks squad with five players on the wrong side of 30 will struggle with.

Despite the missing Wallaby personell, this is a game the home team should win; “click” or BOOM?

Gagger says: Click. Wallabies by 8

Teams

Wallabies		Springbokke
Benn Robinson	1	Gurthro Steenkamp
Saia Faingaa	2	John Smit [c]
Salesi Ma’afu	3	BJ Botha
Dean Mumm	4	Danie Rossouw
Nathan Sharpe	5	Victor Matfield
Rocky Elsom [c]	6 / 7	Ryan Kankowski
David Pocock	7 / 6	Schalk Burger
Dick Brown	8	Pierre Spies
Will Genia	9	Ruan Pienaar
Quade Cooper	10	Morne Steyn
Drew Mitchell	11	Bryan Habana
Matt Giteau	12	Wynand Oliver
Rob Horne	13	Jaque Fourie
James O’Connor	14	Gio Aplon
Adam Ashley-Cooper	15	Zane Kirchner
Stephen Moore	16	Chiliboy Ralepelle
James Slipper	17	CJ van der Linde
Rob Simmons	18	Flip van der Merwe
Ben McCalman	19	Dewald Potgieter
Luke Burgess	20	Francois Hougaard
Berrick Barnes	21	Butch James
Kurtley Beale	22	Juan de Jongh