The Wallabies play their first test match under new coach Michael Cheika on Saturday and we will find out quickly if they have been affected by the turmoil of recent events, or not.
Wales have lost nine on the bounce to Australia, mostly by small margins—some when they were unlucky and others when they choked. Home fans will reckon that if they are going to beat the Wallabies there is no time like the present: after the visitors shot themselves in the foot and will be limping.
But, who knows? Perhaps adversity will help the cause of the Aussies; more likely, it will have no effect one way other the other.
Wales are due for a win against one of the big three southern rugby nations because since coach Warren Gatland got hired in January 2008 his team has lost 24 out of 25—and mainly because they didn’t score enough tries.
Warren Gatland – would like a big win against a southern side
The Form
Wales haven’t played since they toured South Africa in June and were unlucky to lose in Nelspruit but they choked and the Bokke were awarded a fair penalty try to win.
Australia won the series against a poor French side. In The Rugby Championship [TRC] they had a couple of scratchy wins at home against the Pumas and Boks, tied the All Blacks in Sydney when both teams were second-rate, and got thrashed at Eden Park a week later.
Ahead with eleven minutes to go in Cape Town, they got bushwhacked by a superior bench; they lost to Argentina in Mendoza the week afterwards, and “did a Wales” and lost at the death against the All Blacks in the third Bledisloe match in Brisbane.
They were beaten in their three away tests in 2014 a and haven’t won away since……they beat Wales, this time last year.
George North – getting second test at outside centre
The Players
Wales
Coach Gatland has an injury crisis in the midfield. Outside centre Jonathan Davies, suddenly in form for Clermont, was injured in the European Rugby Championship Cup [ERC], as was Scott Williams for Scarlets.
There was some serendipity for Gatland though, as winger George North had to play outside centre for Northampton for most of the game against the Ospreys in the ERC and he scored four tries—one a brilliancy that took the breath away. He will wear the 13 shirt and partner 12 Jamie Roberts, who he teamed up with in his only other test start in the centres: against France in the last Six Nations.
North’s customary wing spot will be taken by Liam Williams who committed the howler to lose the test match in Nelspruit.
Gatland has correctly named Rhys Webb at scrumhalf instead of Mike Phillips, not only for his individual form, but also for his fruitful partnership with 10 Dan Biggar for Ospreys in the Pro12.
Rhys Webb – has a good partnership with Dan Biggar
The coach has dropped Wales’ fixture LHP Gethin Jenkins to the bench and Lions’ THP Adam Jones didn’t even make the 34-man training squad. Paul James, a bull of a player for Bath this year, will wear the 1 jersey to help blunt the Aussie forwards at the start, but Jenkins, not as strong a scrummager (and who has played only four games this year) will appear later on to bring skills that James doesn’t have, to bear.
Likewise 6. Dan Lydiate, who struggles to get a start for Racing Metro (only two this season) will run-on, but the smaller though niftier opensider Justin Tipuric (four starts only) will replace him in the XV later.
Watch out for 21 year-old Samson Lee (great name for a tighthead prop) who looked promising in South Africa, except for some lack of discipline. Also of interest is the 23 year-old bearded wonder, lock Jake Ball, a Pom with a Welsh dad, but played Under 19 cricket for WA and trained with the Western Force in rugby.
Sean McMahon – had a dream year and the dream goes on
Wallabies
Cheika has used the starting XV in the third Bledisloe as a base and adjusted it for injuries to two backrowers. Ben McCalman comes in for Scott Higginbotham at no. 8, but the big surprise is that 100kg Sean McMahon replaces Scott Fardy as blindside flanker.
The 20 year-old could have had a big career in Sevens and eventually gone to the Olympics, but he had a burning desire to play for the Wallabies and signed up for the Melbourne Rebels as the first step.
McMahon said at the Aussie rugby awards function as Super Rugby Rookie of the Year, and Under 20 Player of the Year, that he had a dream season, and now the dream goes on. Though he is starting in the test match because others aren’t available, you couldn’t fault the way McMahon took his chance against the Barbarians to earn his spot.
The other run-on forwards are as expected with the injuries they have, except that the omission of experienced loosehead prop (69 caps) Benn Robinson from the bench in favour of Tetera Faulkner, hardly stellar in Super Rugby, was a shock. I’m guessing that this is on the advice of forwards’ coach Andrew Blades, or maybe it is just to give Faulkner a sniff, as others will later on tour.
It is somewhat surprising to see Matt To’omua overlooked to retain 12 Christian Leali’ifano, since To’omua is a robust defender and the Wales’ centres are giants.
It will be interesting to see Will Genia and Quade Cooper come off the bench if Cooper is not cut. They were scratchy at Twickenham against the Barbarians last Saturday after being out for a while at the top level and were not expected to start, but we know how they can play when they hit their straps.
Christian Leali’ifano – gets to start against Wales
The Plans
Wales will have a bigger pack and starting 1. James and 6. Lydiate signals that Wales will want to play some bruising rugby up front (they are only playing Aussies, after all) and deny them quick ball. They will want to slow the game down to a tempo they are more accustomed to and although they have expansive players themselves, they won’t get sucked into an open game which will suit the Aussies.
They will be instructed to get into good field positions before they strike, as a general rule, and keep the scoreboard ticking over.
Australia will fancy themselves in fronting the Wales’ forwards because they had some bruising episodes against the Kiwis and South Africans and just have to do that for more minutes every game.
The big question for the Aussies about this test match and for the rest of the tour for that matter, is how their bench players perform. This was a glaring negative for the Wallabies in the TRC, and Aussie rugby fans will watch this element of the game with keen interest.
The Prediction
Both “Jiffy” Davies and Martyn Williams picked the Wallabies to beat their old team and I tend to agree. The Aussies will start to tire on the tour after a long season which started in February, but this will come too late to help Wales.
Wallabies by 5
Millennium Stadium – old turf was replaced by hybrid pitch
Another item of interest about the match is how the hybrid pitch, a mixture of grass and artificial fibres, holds up to the scrummaging on it’s “debut” at Millennium Stadium.
The teams
Wales
1. P. James, 2. R. Hibbard, 3. S. Lee, 4. J. Ball, 5. AW Jones, 6. D. Lydiate, 7. S Warburton (c), 8. T. Faletau, 9. R. Webb, 10. D. Biggar, 11. L. Williams, 12. J. Roberts, 13. G. North, 14. A. Cuthbert, 15. L. Halfpenny.
Reserves: 16. S. Baldwin, 17. G. Jenkins, 18. R. Jones, 19. B. Davies, 20. J. Tipuric, 21. M. Phillips, 22. R. Priestland, 23. C. Allen.
Wallabies
1. J. Slipper, 2. S. Fainga’a, 3. S. Kepu, 4. S. Carter, 5. R. Simmons, 6. S. McMahon, 7. M Hooper (c), 8. B. McCalman, 9.N. Phipps, 10. B. Foley, 11. J. Tomane, 12. C. Leali’ifano, 13. T. Kuridrani, 14. A. Ashley-Cooper, 15. I. Folau.
Reserves: 16. J. Hanson, 17. T. Faulkner, 18. B. Alexander, J. Horwill, W. Skelton, M. Hodgson, W. Genia, Q. Cooper, R. Horne (one to be omitted).
Match details
Date: Saturday, November 8 (+ 1 day AEDT)
Kick-off: 14:30 GMT; 01:30 AEDT +1day
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant Referees: Jaco Peyper (South Africa), JP Doyle (England)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)
Television (Australia) – Fox Sports 2 and Channel 10 – 01:15 AEDT Sunday, November 9th
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