We all know it’s not over to the fat lady sings. But Benn Robinson’s wife wasn’t available for it. So instead I’ll try and run through the facts of what the chances are of an Australian representation in the finals series this year.
So here’s what we know and what counts.
Had the season been over this week the top 4 on the following graph would make it: (Thank Gagger each team has got another 10 games over 11 weeks.)
| Round 3 | |||||||||
| Team | P | W | L | D | F | A | +/- | Bns | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Bulls | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 104 | 45 | 3 | 15 |
| 2. Hurricanes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 60 | 54 | 2 | 14 |
| 3. Chiefs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 102 | 26 | 2 | 14 |
| 4. Crusaders | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 64 | 23 | 2 | 10 |
| 5. Stormers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 70 | 38 | 32 | 1 | 9 |
| 6. Blues | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 67 | -1 | 1 | 9 |
| 7. Brumbies | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 75 | 82 | -7 | 0 | 8 |
| 8. Reds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 87 | 77 | 10 | 2 | 6 |
| 9. Highlanders | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 63 | 75 | -12 | 1 | 5 |
| 10. Cheetahs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 83 | 102 | -19 | 1 | 5 |
| 11. Waratahs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 74 | 103 | -29 | 1 | 5 |
| 12. Lions | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 131 | -35 | 2 | 2 |
| 13. Sharks | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 44 | 79 | -35 | 2 | 2 |
| 14. Force | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 56 | 108 | -52 | 0 | 0 |
Brumbies
Thus far they our our best chance, sitting in 7th, having played only away games and coming home with a 67% win percentage. They still lack the bonus points needed to take them into finals, as they have since they last won the comp, but the best home record of any other super 14 team should work in their favour, especially with 7 out of their next 10 games in Canberra.
The bookies have backed them (they’re currently 1.51 to make the top 4), which means its a terrible bet, especially with Gits and the backline still not firing (lets hope a return to Canberra fixes that). The Brumbies season really hinges on the form they show in their next match at home against the Lions. If they can hit their straps and find some back-line form, visiting teams will be dreading their respective trips to Canberra. Git’s needs to push his back-line deeper and tell them to run for the gaps.
Reds
Sitting on 8th, The Red’s season is not by any means a lost cause. Although they have lost their captain and most consistent line-out option for the season, they have the form back-line of the competition. Coming into most matches as the underdogs suits them and I foresee them knocking off some big name teams in home and away matches. Their only two losses are from games they were leading and should have put to bed, but you know what they say, twice bitten four times shy…
The Reds are paying 9 to 1 to make a finals appearance, not bad for a team which will have a plethora of bonus points come the seasons end (we all know they are worth their weight in bonus). The Reds season will hinge on keeping their big names fit. If Genia, QC or even Braid or Hooker Faingaa go down, if even one of those players go down they are in all sorts of trouble.
Waratahs
Sitting in 11th at the moment the moment sounds bad, but they’re only 3 points off the Brumbies and only have 1 less home game (thanks to the 13 game draw), meaning 6/10 of the next games will be in Sydney (The bookies have recognised this and the Tah’s only pay 3.25 for a top 4 spot). I really think the Tahs have turned a corner and found themselves on their South Africa trip. They seem like now they have the ability to highly motivate themselves and stick to their tactics/strategies.
Watch out if you find yourself in Sydney and the Tahs are going to put on the run and stun they showed last week, the Bulls aren’t the best defensive team but in no way are they the worst. The Tahs have Mumm returning this week which will bolster their forward drive but their season will hinge much like the Brumbies on their star play-maker, if Berrick Buns can find his place in the team and show what he can do from a try scoring perspective then these Tahs are really going to shake the latter ten thirteenths of this competition. My advise to him is to stop practising drop goals and work on his left to right passing.
Force
No points from 3 games. Sitting last by two whole competition points. A win would see them get out of the gutter but looks unlikely with Cameron (Harry Kewell) Shepherd, Richard Brown and David Pocock, still a long way off returning. A bye this week may be a blessing in disguise as it gives the team double time to prepare for the next match, although I hope not cos that match will be against the Reds away (I’m not a Red’s fan but I want to see them in the top 4).
The best thing for the Force to do at the moment is to not contest games against other Australian teams and focus on causing upsets against South African and New Zealand teams. Remember last season the Force beat all other Aussie teams (hence ending their finals chances) in the regular season but still failed to make the finals themselves. At the moment the Force pay 60 to 1 to make their debut finals appearance this year, good odds if your a force supporter and think they can turn it around, but terrible odds if you are a Tahs or Reds supporter and are counting on another defeat to keep you happy.
So in conclusion the Reds, Tahs and Brumbies still have good chances despite all being halfway down the leaderboard or below, and if you’re gonna bet do it on the Reds and only put a small amount of money on it, take your money and never bet again. Cos you can’t ever keep in the RED unless you stop, that’s why gambling businesses are in business.
