RWC 2011 - Quarter final 3 : Springbokke v. Wallabies CLOSED

[light]

Beale is the form fullback in world rugby. Ioane the best winger. O'Connor and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) are two of the best utility backs. With carter on the side line, and Genia at 9 I would rate our backline and the best in world rugby. Unfortunately they are not getting the front foot ball that many teams are at this tournament.

Beale has been far from his best so far, I wouldn't have him in the top 3 fullbacks in the world right now based on form alone. Reputation wise and potentially, yes, but he just lacks the confidence he had in 2010 and we are seeing him make stupid errors and chip kick rather than attack the line. He is however worth the risk of playing at 15 due to his unpredictability, if he shows up to play against the Boks they could be in real trouble..but it doesn't look likely.

I'd have Dagg above him, and Lambie above Dagg in rankings, could also include Paul Williams and Ben Foden into the equation if we are ranking them all.

In terms of a back-line comparison based on what NZ and AUS have left:
Weepu v Genia - Even on form, Genia on potential, experience and decision making.
Slade v Cooper - Cooper on form and experience, not to mention unpredictability/x-factor.
Kahui v Ioane - Even on form, Ioane on x-factor and value to the team.
Nonu v McCabe - Nonu on everything.
Smith v AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) - Smith on everything bar one-on-one defence. Runs better lines and looks the more complete of the two.
Jane v JOC (James O'Connor) - JOC (James O'Connor) on x-factor and kicking, Jane still offers alot.
Dagg v Beale - Dagg on form, Beale on potential and unpredictability.

3 v 2 to the Blackness, the better of the evens would probably decide a game if it was played tomorrow. Fortunately the two evens are more than likely to be won by Australia.

 

[fatprop]

Beale is the form fullback in world rugby. Ioane the best winger. O'Connor and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) are two of the best utility backs. With carter on the side line, and Genia at 9 I would rate our backline and the best in world rugby. Unfortunately they are not getting the front foot ball that many teams are at this tournament.

Dagg & Foden are in as good a form at 15
Ashton is the form wing
Kahui & Jane are as good as utilities
Genia hasn't played any better than a few other 9s at the RWC

 

[Scotty]

The big difference is the AB centres. They are so far ahead of ours at the moment it isn't funny. The rest are even enough.

 

[fatprop]

and that they can all tackle, attack and pass ...........................

 

[Sluggy]

Why are we discussing the ABs? Its this on Sunday:

South Africa: 15 Pat Lambie, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Willem Alberts, 19 Francois Louw 20 Francois Hougaard, 21 Butch James, 22 Gio Aplon.

 

[light]

I hate Hougaard, why does he have to be so bloody versatile and good. Would have to be the best super-sub around.

 

[Cardiffblue]

Hi. Just read the stats on Bryce Lawrence on front page. Any chance of you providing the raw data. Also unclear what forms of significance tests you have conducted?

 

[matty_k]

You will need to contact Rucking Good Stats. He does his own stuff.

 

[hedgo]

call me thick but it just occurred to me why i am so bloody nervous about the game on sunday - we have a chance for a change; in fact we should bloody win if we play to our potential. 2003 i was bloody amazed we got past the blacks in the semi (what a cracker of a game). i didn't expect us to win the final against the poms (was surprised we got close in the end). 2007 with connolly as coach and the form we were in (not to mention a well past it gregan still playing) i didn't expect much either (though losing like that to the poms still bloody hurt). this time around we are well in it (even with a poor coach). sometimes it is worse when you are in with a chance. the let down is so much more painful when you fail.

so can i just say one more thing before i disappear until it is all over....

FOR FUCK'S SAKE FORWARDS PLEASE TURN UP

 

[chequebalance]

sometimes it is worse when you are in with a chance. the let down is so much more painful when you fail.

Yea I don't think I will be seeking out a Saffa bar this time, as opposed to the last time we played a team in green (albiet lighter brighter shade) and did so with one of their bars... Wrong option.

 

[08umema]

Yea I don't think I will be seeking out a Saffa bar this time, as opposed to the last time we played a team in green (albiet lighter brighter shade) and did so with one of their bars... Wrong option.

There are Saffa bars in Brisvegas?

 

[Scotty]

RuckingGoodStats posted this in the blog:

Have that. In 2011 Wallabies conceded 83 penalties and were awarded 77.
By game Wallabies first and the amount they conceded, then team play and the amount that was conceded by Wallabies’ oppostion:
4 v Samoa 16
11 v RSA 8
8 v NZ 7
12 v RSA 6 Lawrence was ref
7 v NZ 8
16 v Italy 9
12 v Ireland 8 Lawrence was ref
4 v USA 11
9 v Russia 4 Lawrence was ref

So non-Lawrence games 50 conceded v 59 awarded.

Ratio of against penalties to for penalties for the wallabies is:

Other Refs - 0.85
Lawrence - 1.83

Wallabies are twice as bad off with Lawrence than with other referees. Another poster noted Lawrence's tendencies to referee only one side at a time (sometimes due to bad position) - see the attempted push over scrum vs Russia for a prime example. His eyes must just be drawn to our gold more often - maybe we should wear the away strip for this game?

I'm with Scarfy, I think I'll go postal if he does this to us again.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

.....snip ...sometimes it is worse when you are in with a chance. the let down is so much more painful when you fail.

No probs just ring up one of your kiwi mates if you have any. I am told that there is plenty of advice available from the Land of The Darkness about how to deal with RWC underperformance. :fishing >

 

[Richo]

How does the IRB do its reffing assignments? Do they analyse the performance of refs against particular teams? Do they consider history?

 

[chief]

The decision to put McCabe over Barnes is simply idiotic. Absolutely idiotic.

 

[whatty]

I was wondering today why I was so anxious to win this game and rather than just progressing towards another RWC it was more been given the opportunity to knock out the AB's in their world cup.

 

[potjiekos]

BdP is arguably the best hooker in world rugby at the moment. PERIOD!!!! And while I concurr, to some extent, with the sentiments expressed relating to his exclusion from the starting XV, I have to concede that in the GREATER SCHEME OF THINGS and especially when facing the wobblies in a WC QF, John Smit's selection over BdP is most opportune in several respects.

It is evident that Smit's initial inclusion is integral to the execution of a set game plan. He commands the respect of all the bok players, including several senior players both on ....(getting guys like Victor Matfield and Scalk Burger to scramble and put their bodies on the line for 80 mins is no easy feat).... and off the field.

Beyond this, he is tactically astute and is 'au fait' whith the rules / laws of the game........ if he's not barking commands in a huddle, then he's chirping at the ref about some or other transgression in order to gain some ascendancy.

While he's no BdP, he's not half bad as a hooker and front row forward. What he lacks in pace, he more than makes up in grunt and tenacity...... the evidence of this is glaringly obvious for all to see during many a post match interview, where he'd be sporting a brand new battlescar....blodied all over with either a swollen eye or a stiched up forehead.

BdP will get his opportunity to make an impact, but for now IMHO, it is imperative that John Smit starts the game.

 

[qwerty51]

You contradicted yourself as soon as you said "BdP is arguably the best hooker in world rugby at the moment. PERIOD!!!!"

There's no justification for leaving the best hooker in the world on the bench.

 

[the plastic paddy]

Dagg & Foden are in as good a form at 15
Ashton is the form wing
Kahui & Jane are as good as utilities
Genia hasn't played any better than a few other 9s at the RWC

Ashton form wing my arse, scoring tries against Georgia and Romania's second team does not constitute form. His walk in against Scotland having been completely awol for the rest of the game is his form. He is a flat track bully whose reputation is based on his try against you fellas when you were fucking nackered at the end of your season. Foden is not in great form but is a lovely player and manages to score against tier 1 teams unlike 'Spit or Swallow'. Ioane back for you fellas is massive IMHO, best winger on the planet for me. And he'd be even better if he didn't have to defend for Quade Cooper all game but you have no one to blame but yourselves for that one.

 

[the plastic paddy]

How does the IRB do its reffing assignments? Do they analyse the performance of refs against particular teams? Do they consider history?

Most people make excuses after the event not before!?!