Reds vs Blues, Suncorp Stadium, 2011R13

[Gagger]

I think the breakdown will be even more crucial in this game than usual.

The Reds will be working hard to contain the Blues backline, and gain parity with a very good Blues very set piece. But IMO the strongest feature of the Blues game is their breakdown work, and in particular their ability to secure counterruck turnovers.

Good stuff Ali. I agree with a lot of the thinking above, although the stats don't hold out that the Blues will necessarily walk over the Reds in this department (see attached)



The Reds are actually committing more men to defensive Rucks and taking fewer rucks to secure turnovers. Whereas they're 3rd in the league in this regard, the Blues are 10th.

You might be onto something with the Reds protecting their own ball though. Both sides commit about the same number of men, but the positions on the table are reversed: the Blues are 3rd in terms of retaining attacking ball, the Reds 11th.

Theoretically it's a stalemate - will be fascinating to see what unfolds on the night

 

[Ali's Choice]

Good stuff Ali. I agree with a lot of the thinking above, although the stats don't hold out that the Blues will necessarily walk over the Reds in this department (see attached)

View attachment 1417

The Reds are actually committing more men to defensive Rucks and taking fewer rucks to secure turnovers. Whereas they're 3rd in the league in this regard, the Blues are 10th.

You might be onto something with the Reds protecting their own ball though. Both sides commit about the same number of men, but the positions on the table are reversed: the Blues are 3rd in terms of retaining attacking ball, the Reds 11th.

Theoretically it's a stalemate - will be fascinating to see what unfolds on the night

Good to see such detailed breakdown stats. I haven't seen such breakdown stats before.

I don't think the Blues will necessarily dominate the Reds at the breakdown. We won't really know until the teams face off. But I do think, as mentioned in my previous post, that the breakdown will be crucial. Those stats you posted show that the Reds are committing good numbers to the breakdown. This should help them to counter the Blues in this facet. Jerome Kaino's absence could also be a crucial factor.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Kaino's absence is one of the key reasons why I give the Reds a chance in this game. He is crucial to their work at the breakdown, especially the counter ruck.

 

[TOCC]

Agree, Kaino's absence cant be underestimated, he is a awesome player and a bit part of there rucking game

 

[cyclopath]

Agree, Kaino's absence cant be underestimated, he is a awesome player and a bit part of there rucking game

Funny how one wrong letter completely changes the meaning of a sentence!! Sure you meant "big".
I agree thoroughly - Kaino is a very physical 6 at the breakdown, and a big loss for the Blues. I think the Reds are a big chance - really looking forward to this game.

 

[GC]

I am pessimistic. Blues did us last year. Reckon they'll do it again. I actually think the Reds'll be more up for the Saders game (again).

 

[Tangawizi]

I think there's no doubt Reds will be up for tomorrow night's game. The reasons for this are many:

1. Prove to the doubters they're the real deal
2. Beat a Kiwi team to atone for the shocker against the Hurricanes
3. Winning will maintain their gap over the Tahs in the Australian conference,
4. This is precisely the kind of big game/pressure match up Robbie Deans will closely examine when determing the Wallabies squad, and
5. A win would go a very long way to securing their first finals appearance since 2001. I think maybe 3 of the squad would have played semis before but others all have the eye of the Tiger.
6. Publc and private expectation levels of the performance are substantially higher than the last time we played the Blues. Anything less than making the finals is a failure this year.

I could go on..... If the Reds players are not up for this match, they shouldn't be playing rugby. It's whether or not their good enough to win that's under question and we will know that soon enough. Fire up Queenslanders and don't let those Blues fans get anywhere near out-cheering us tomorrow night.

Bring it on, I say, bring it on!!!!

 

[Cat_A]

Chambers should be left in club Rugby untill he finds form.

It'd be nice if Chambers actually PLAYED club rugby!

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Tangawizi, I hope you're right mate. Those are all good reasons for the Reds to be up for it tomorrow night. I would love to see them come charging out of the gates and really take the game on.

 

[meatsack]

I think maybe 3 of the squad would have played semis before but others all have the eye of the Tiger.

Not really doubting you, but with such a young team I'd just like to confirm names... are you saying Samo (of course) and then the reserve props....? Not dissing, just trying to get names.

 

[Brumbies Guy]

Not really doubting you, but with such a young team I'd just like to confirm names... are you saying Samo (of course) and then the reserve props....? Not dissing, just trying to get names.

Samo, Beau and Shep.

 

[No4918]

I think both sides are really going to come out of the gates fast and expect the first 20 to be very intense. Hopefully there are enough players left uninjured to take on the Crusaders in 2 weeks.

It is going to be very interesting to see the type of game plan Link comes up with. Probably something more in line with how we played the Stormers. Keeping the ball in hand and not kicking away possession ala the Bulls game could be dangerous if ball security isn't perfect here as the Blues are far better on counter-attack. Kicks will also need to find touch and at least a couple of chasers will need to be on it to prevent quick throws. Limit there back 3 and the Reds should get up. Blues only have 1 try to the Reds 7 in there last 2 games so it is very possible to stop them scoring.

 

[TOCC]

Im interested to see how Higgers goes this week, his been playing with a fair bit of aggression the last few weeks, i understand not everyone is a fan of this sort of style but i think a bit of ginger agro is necessary in every good rugby team.

 

[fatprop]

Kaino's absence is one of the key reasons why I give the Reds a chance in this game. He is crucial to their work at the breakdown, especially the counter ruck.

The guys the Blues have are big, hard workers who will get over the advantage line.

The issue will be can the Reds close down the Blues go forward and short passing from contact.

For the Blues, the Rebels highlighted their approach I reckon, make the breakdown a shit fight, keep competing with strong offensive tackling - no passive stuff and you don't give Cooper the options off quick ball and the Reds kick it away when it goes static. When Cooper does get it, close down his space and smash him every time you can.

 

[Ali's Choice]

One rather cynical tactic that the Blues have been getting away with the season is extending their clearout well beyond the tackle area. Against the Crusaders in particular, Blues players were walking over the ruck (which they are entitled to do) but then would keep advancing and even fanning out well past the ruck (up to 5 or more metres past the ruck). This greatly disrupted the Crusaders defensive alignment, and allowed the Blues to make massive gains close to the breakdown with pick and go or forwards running close in off Mathewson. Basically these Blues clearing out players were illegally clearing out a channel for their forward runners to explout close to the breakdown. At the time I was furstrated by the referee's refusal to penalise this illegal tactic. I know opposing fans have accused the All Blacks of this tactic before but I can honestly say I have never seen it performed so blatantly as on this occasion in round one.

 

[fatprop]

The Crusaders and the Reds do the same thing

 

[minorbird]

The Reds are so subtle at doing it that the commentators for their game last week were pointing it out! I'm pretty certain that when a Rebels player took issue with Higginbotham doing it, that's when a bit of the biff started.

 

[Ali's Choice]

The Crusaders and the Reds do the same thing

They do, but not to the same extent as what the Blues have been doing it, though in saying that I guess it's a subjective assessment and the sort of thing you notice much more when it's happening against your team. I have seen the ABs and Crusaders do it in the past, but never as blatantly as what the Blues were allowed to do in round one. At one stage a Blues player was tackled ten metres out from the tryline, and his teammates cleared out all the way to the tryline and then stopped and slowly walked backed through the ruck area to get onside, completely disrupting the Crusaders defensive line. So they were blocking on the way through, and then again on their way back on-side.

 

[Victorian Reds Fan]

I think you take penalties and conversions with place kicks.

Yes, he does, but his field kicking has been worse of late than his conversion/penalty kicking.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

AC, that's OK so long as they go through the gate, though isn't it? Or is it considered effectively obstruction or being offside?