I think this game will be won at the breakdown. The set piece will be even with the reds better lineout being countered by the brumbies better scrum. This sets up the breakdown (and it's interpretation) as the key to gaining ascendancy. It also sets up a key matchup in the lead up to the Lions tour Wallabies squad, Gill v *Smith. Gill has moved on from being shaded by Hooper as Pocock's deputy, to being the best Australian openside the next year, unless you count the slightly eligible George Smith and it's close. If I had to split them I would say Smith brings more because of his experience but then Gill has youth with it's advantages, it will be interesting to see how they both react to perhaps the biggest game of their seasons.
I'm most intrigued to see To'omua defend Quade Cooper. Both missed out on the "logistics squad" but are both a chance to play the lions. Equally I look forward to Tapui v Lealiifano, maybe a duel for the Wallaby 12 jumper.
Brums by 8.