Rebels v Brumbies Rnd 7 2014

[Dumbledore]

I think it's a poor selection.
He is very weak defensively,and I predict the ponies will find him out.

No he isn't. I can think of two times I've seen him bounced, Deon Fourie against the Stormers and Sio last year I think? And the Fourie one he got back up and chased him down from behind. I'd love to hear some more examples.

His defence isn't as strong as say, a Burgess or Mike Phillips, but it's not a complete liability in the Cipriani/Quade mould. And, really, picking a scrumhalf based on their defensive qualities is a ridiculous way to select.

 

[daz]

And, really, picking a scrumhalf based on their defensive qualities is a ridiculous way to select.

Yup, couldn't agree more. I understand we need all players to be able to tackle, but if we need our scrummie to be a defensive lion then we really are in all kinds of bother.

 

[USARugger]

@Dumbledore

Quade has 2nd highest tackles completed of any 10 in the comp and the lowest miss % of any 10 who has made 20+ tackles.

 

[Dumbledore]

Yeah, I was kind of going for a sweeping statement about a player based on narrative without any actual proof. Mentioning Cips probably didn't help in fairness.

 

[Sir Arthur Higgins]

Why is Roberts on the bench??

 

[daz]

Because the death penalty is illegal in this country?


Anyhoo, my attempt to pick apart the rebels disfunction, preview the game and pick out some match ups is now on the front page:

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/rebels-v-brumbies-round-7-2014/

 

[Brumby Jack]

Another good match up is Laurie Fisher v Tony McGahan.

From their days at Munster it will be interesting to see if they can pull a surprise on the other.

 

[Scythe]

I think it's a poor selection.
He is very weak defensively,and I predict the ponies will find him out.

I've played against him he isn't weak in defence mate


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[daz]

Yeah, I played JP and Max as a matchup. Oops.

What can I say? I was sober.

 

[USARugger]

You never know, JP could say something mean to Max and hurt his feelings at some point.

That's the kind of stuff that decides championships.

 

[KevinO]

I like that the Rebels emailed a copy of the match day program to have a look through.

I have not been buying them as they need more content and at least I know I have not been missing much.

 

[Brumby Jack]

Some stats from Opta so far this season for both sides:

The Rebels have conceded 11 tries this season, but just two of them have
originated from inside their own 22.

The Brumbies have scored 12 tries from possessions that began with a set
piece (scrum or lineout), four more than any other side and accounting for
86% of their overhaul (12/14).

The Brumbies have already scored five tries from possessions that have
lasted 7+ phases, more than any other side and way above the competition
average of 1.7. The Rebels are yet to manage this feat.

However, the Canberra outfit have conceded the most tries (7) in the last
quarter of matches this season.

The Melbourne side have averaged more time in possession than any other
side so far (16m 45s) but this figure is inflated by their round two victory over
the Cheetahs when they had the ball for over 22 minutes.

The Rebels’ goal-kicking success rate of 53% is the lowest in the competition
so far. Bryce Hegarty has kicked 6/9, Jason Woodward 3/7 and Angus
Roberts 1/3.

 

[Pedrolicus]

Any predictions?
I think the brumbies are too well rounded to lose this one. Line out, scrum and breakdown are all good.

I hope the round one rebels turn up though as the brumbies have a history of playing to the opposition's standard.

I think Tomane will have a big game he was a bit quiet last week and will want to cement his place for when Speight returns, especially as Coleman is on fire.

Brumbies by 12 with a bonus point.

 

[Scythe]

Any predictions?
I think the brumbies are too well rounded to lose this one. Line out, scrum and breakdown are all good.

I hope the round one rebels turn up though as the brumbies have a history of playing to the opposition's standard.

I think Tomane will have a big game he was a bit quiet last week and will want to cement his place for when Speight returns, especially as Coleman is on fire.

Brumbies by 12 with a bonus point.

I think Brumbies will do them by 14+



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tex]

I've settled into my usual mindset of hoping for the best and expecting the worst from the Rebels, and if my fantasy line up is any indication then the Brumbies should hand us a spanking.

As stated above, the Brumbies are a well drilled and high quality team across all areas. I don't think we have the fire power to match that across the 80 minutes.

(I also would have said that the Force wouldn't match the Chiefs so I guess anything is possible.)

 

[Scrubber2050]

Reckon the Brums will shit this game in.

However a heap of Queenslanders will be hoping for an upset.

 

[daz]

Can I see my boys getting over the line? Yes. Do I think it likely? Nope.

Brums on a roll and the Rebels just barely holding on.

Brums by 5-10 if the Rebels have a crack.

Brums by 20+ if the Rebels stay in their shell.

 

[swingpass]

Some stats from Opta so far this season for both sides:

The Rebels have conceded 11 tries this season, but just two of them have
originated from inside their own 22.

The Brumbies have scored 12 tries from possessions that began with a set
piece (scrum or lineout), four more than any other side and accounting for
86% of their overhaul (12/14).

The Brumbies have already scored five tries from possessions that have
lasted 7+ phases, more than any other side and way above the competition
average of 1.7. The Rebels are yet to manage this feat.

However, the Canberra outfit have conceded the most tries (7) in the last
quarter of matches this season.

The Melbourne side have averaged more time in possession than any other
side so far (16m 45s) but this figure is inflated by their round two victory over
the Cheetahs when they had the ball for over 22 minutes.

The Rebels’ goal-kicking success rate of 53% is the lowest in the competition
so far. Bryce Hegarty has kicked 6/9, Jason Woodward 3/7 and Angus
Roberts 1/3.

these stats actually support my gut feeling. we defend well when in defensive mode, but get really burned on turnovers, although last week the scramble defence stopped a couple of tries, initially.

we control the ball for long periods but do little with it and then turn it over when attacking because of over eagerness ? anxiety ? lack of options / too many options ? lack of skill ? who knows

and we cant fucking kick. this is the most ironic thing coming from melbourne, where kicking coaches lay around like fallen fruit !

 

[Moono75]

Expect the Brumbies to win this but as the Force have shown if you play committed rugby anything can happen. Need the Rebels fans to turn up and get behind the team to get them over the line. Injuries don't help. Good luck, lets hope its an entertaining game.

 

[Bairdy]

Putting off my uni assignment for the time being, for this game. Hopefully it's competitive!