Where to for Super Rugby?

[BLR]

And the specific articles about the Victorian Government?

 

[Inside Shoulder]

If any of the comps proposed in this thread could lead to this:

"So my last Saturday, I left home at half-past eight in the morning, went and watched my 13-year-old son play schoolboy rugby, shot down to Hawera to watch the [Coastal] Under 20s and the development team at the same time because they were sort of playing at the same time, then watched the seniors play after that," he told ESPN.
http://www.espn.com.au/rugby/story/_/id/19356193/coastal-rugby-club-barrett-brothers-dna

Then we should stop season 2017 and get cracking on the future

 

[RedsHappy]

Cox is going to be out of pocket by a couple of bar per year.

If he's going to wear that, then he'd want to hope Rebels fans are turning up at the till.

Or muller the ARU for the difference.

Kiap, 100% agree and as I noted previously, I think these are the 'beneath the media surface' crunch points for Cox and partners that will be privately preoccupying them.

He for sure will have calculated the material incremental $s (and shareholder and management effort) needed from late 2017 right through say 2019 to pull the Rebels out of their current quite serious playing w-l rate and low-fan-level problems. And then the risk on top of this that there may never be a pull out that's good enough to ensure the Rebels are financially self-sustaining once the ARU (declining) annual cash subsidy expires.

So IMO his May 2017 calculus will be: 'either the ARU buy me out, or they commit far bigger $m subsidy levels for 2-3 years. or I have to sustain a very large negative cash flow for years and fund it, or I have to close the Rebels down after this season'.

I am speculating but I would doubt this seasoned businessman would personally commit $Xms more than he has currently sunk given the very high turnaround risk profile the Rebels have now based on 2017's team results and crowd levels.

 

[BLR]

I am speculating but I would doubt this seasoned businessman would personally commit $Xms more than he has currently sunk given the very high turnaround risk profile the Rebels have now based on 2017's team results and crowd levels.

But, he said he would?

Are you trying to tell me that a businessman ISN'T the height of honour and loyalty against all other factors?

 

[RedsHappy]

But, he said he would?

Are you trying to tell me that a businessman ISN'T the height of honour and loyalty against all other factors?

I could be wrong but I thought he said 'I won't sell the Rebels licence (back to the ARU)'.........

( http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...e/news-story/2da5e3ddf0ef8ba61681a388b16b7fa6 )

............which is some distance from 'I'll fund them personally for as much as it takes for as long as it takes'.

 

[oztimmay]

I think he said he won't sell the Rebels license back to the ARU if it means the Rebels will be wound up. So that leaves either a merger (read: relocation of the Brumbies or Force) or another team removed.

 

[swingpass]

and has been stated a lot, he has very publicly backed keeping the Rebels alive, cashing in will be a short term gain if he pisses off the state government and the local business community here. still he will weigh up the pros and cons of each option and no doubt choose the one that makes most cents.

 

[BLR]

See I get that he is saying he won't cash out, but he is still having meetings with ARU and from all indications a 'price' has been discussed, not a price as long as the Rebels don't fold, but a price.

I find it strange many Rebels supporters take his support at face value but he is still having these meetings behind the scenes when he could have just told the ARU to bugger off.

Hell, RugbyWA invited the ARU to come and talk to us about the situation but they cancelled it (apparently mutual but yeah right) but ongoing meeting continue with Cox & the ARU. Is this not saying where the ARU sees as the weak point?

 

[FiveStarStu]

and has been stated a lot, he has very publicly backed keeping the Rebels alive, cashing in will be a short term gain if he pisses off the state government and the local business community here. still he will weigh up the pros and cons of each option and no doubt choose the one that makes most cents.

Also selling the team this easily neglects to take into account why he bought the team. As you mentioned, it's all about business contacts for him.

He won't sell and black ball himself to that community. If the Rebels go it will need to be/look against his will.

 

[Killer]

I think he said he won't sell the Rebels license back to the ARU if it means the Rebels will be wound up. So that leaves either a merger (read: relocation of the Brumbies or Force) or another team removed.

I can't remember, did he actually say this or is it second hand from a sauce?
Big problem for him too is the Govt giving dollars to a private businessman, perception or not, directly or not.

 

[FiveStarStu]

See I get that he is saying he won't cash out, but he is still having meetings with ARU and from all indications a 'price' has been discussed, not a price as long as the Rebels don't fold, but a price.

Cox/Rebels have stated they have not received a price. The ARU might have one they can afford but that's irrelevant if the seller isn't selling.

I find it strange many Rebels supporters take his support at face value but he is still having these meetings behind the scenes when he could have just told the ARU to bugger off.

Cox would be incredibly foolish to sell for any price the ARU could offer him. He knows he's got them over a barrel, so even if he wanted out, it's going to court.

Hell, RugbyWA invited the ARU to come and talk to us about the situation but they cancelled it (apparently mutual but yeah right) but ongoing meeting continue with Cox & the ARU. Is this not saying where the ARU sees as the weak point?

As I understand it, they've met once. As I said above, he's not going to look like he's sold the Rebels out. Too proud a man.

 

[FiveStarStu]

I can't remember, did he actually say this or is it second hand from a sauce?

Big problem for him too is the Govt giving dollars to a private businessman, perception or not, directly or not.

He has said this publicly on multiple occasions. Basically every week at the game.

Also the Victory and Vixens receive generous government sponsorships so that's no big deal.

 

[BLR]

Is the narrative not that he was asking for 4.75m at the start now that has presumably risen to 10m as he does have the ARU over the barrel.

I would call that a bloody good business deal considering he was actually paid to take the Rebels off the ARU's hands, even at the lower amount. So he can surely keep his pride amongst the business circles.

Force fans were told the fuel pills worked and that the ARU Alliance Agreement was to specifically keep the Force until 2020. Pinch of salt I would say on what Cox is saying, as a Force fan I have been burnt too many times to know that if the smoke is there then the truth often follows.

 

[Killer]

Also selling the team this easily neglects to take into account why he bought the team. As you mentioned, it's all about business contacts for him.

He won't sell and black ball himself to that community. If the Rebels go it will need to be/look against his will.

yes agree, I also think this is not what he signed up for, his expectations of success would have been far higher. I think it was also why his positive outlook on joining with the Brumbies was IOT get a better financial deal from the ARU.

For mine I think the ARU have called his bluff by denying the Brumbies option and no doubt have made it clear the future financial losses will be his alone.

The WF are not susceptible to this coercion, it is play rugby or nothing. Not to mention public and media support which the ARU would have noted to support their decision making, enough bad press as it is. Especially if Mr Cox was to walk away in 2yrs time.

Sorry about the jumbled comments. I personally think all teams should be kept or all teams participate in the sustainability test.

 

[FiveStarStu]

Is the narrative not that he was asking for 4.75m at the start now that has presumably risen to 10m as he does have the ARU over the barrel.

He has never asked for any amount of money to sell the Rebels. That is made up. He bought the team. He wants the team.

I would call that a bloody good business deal considering he was actually paid to take the Rebels off the ARU's hands, even at the lower amount. So he can surely keep his pride amongst the business circles.

By taking away their toy? I don't think so.

Force fans were told the fuel pills worked and that the ARU Alliance Agreement was to specifically keep the Force until 2020. Pinch of salt I would say on what Cox is saying, as a Force fan I have been burnt too many times to know that if the smoke is there then the truth often follows.

Cox has far more to lose than the Rebels in this instance. That's why he's fighting.

 

[BLR]

Sorry about the jumbled comments. I personally think all teams should be kept or all teams participate in the sustainability test.

Hell, we should have this done consistently. An efficiency test of sorts.

The Tahs have the most stacked roster however through I can only presume poor management/coaching have been very underwhelming over the years. What do they talk about at the end of year meetings when all goes tits up despite the advantages handed to them?

The Force have been rotting since the Firepower thing went down, imagine if we had a look and re-structured the way we run things sooner instead of having to endure years of mediocrity?

 

[FiveStarStu]

yes agree, I also think this is not what he signed up for, his expectations of success would have been far higher.

This is not necessarily true.

The VC firm he runs, Imperium, specialises in turning firms around. His TGI Fridays purchase from Boags (now Lion Nathan) took ten years to see consistent profits.

He was/is in this for the long haul.

 

[BLR]

He has never asked for any amount of money to sell the Rebels. That is made up. He bought the team. He wants the team.

You are making a whole lot of assumptions here. 'That is made up' how do you know? Why do you trust the viewpoint that he hasn't against the multiple articles saying those figures I mentioned? It seems you are being willfully ignorant to me.

By taking away their toy? I don't think so.

The business communities toy? Does it actually get that much support? I mean, last game you had around 6,000 fans at the game. The Force aren't much better I get that but is the corporate pull of the Rebels ACTUALLY that strong considering all the other more popular options in Melbourne?

Cox has far more to lose than the Rebels in this instance. That's why he's fighting.

He was in the red by $2 million last year. What benefit is he actually getting out of running this operation. 'Connections?' There are ways to get connections without losing $2 million a year.

 

[Sauron]

Would not be surprised if this whole process remains as opaque as it has been thus far, only to have court action commence, and a confidential settlement reached.

Everyone saves face. Cox gets to fight The Man, and the ARU get to hide just how much this is going to cost them.

 

[FiveStarStu]

Would not be surprised if this whole process remains as opaque as it has been thus far, only to have court action commence, and a confidential settlement reached.



Everyone saves face. Cox gets to fight The Man, and the ARU get to hide just how much this is going to cost them.

To be honest, I see this going the same way as well.

Then in a year we wonder why the grassroots money never eventuated.