Where to for Super Rugby?

[Quick Hands]

The survey is on participation in competitive sport.
Niche as in the areas it is played competitively in, the heart lands. The numbers will fluctuate depending whether those heartlands are surveyed.
I try to explain it in a more long winded way in post #1348 here:

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/co...on-and-aru-plans-for-the-future.16546/page-68

There's something in what you say, and I cautioned on the accuracy on participation statistics for all sports when the survey was first posted.

In the 40 years or so that I have been involved in juniors there has been a definite decline. I'd say that on the northern beaches and north shore that numbers wouldn't have declined by that much. It's in places like Parramatta where there has been a really big decline in that time.

 

[Gnostic]

It is big but not 120k big and I believe the numbers on the rowing site are a bit rubbery



https://www.rowingaustralia.com.au/community-rowing/

Do they count other "rowing type sports" like Dragon boat etc?

 

[chibimatty]

^^^^^^^^^^ I think this thread just jumped the shark. Hawaii? Really?

No, not really. The Hawaii bit's just something fanciful added on at the end, it's not really the focus of the post. Hawaii's too far out of the timezone anyway.

The post was really about the potential of an AUS/JPN solution if the Trans-Tasman idea wasn't an option. In response to Omar's original posting at #1241

 

[p.Tah]

Do they count other "rowing type sports" like Dragon boat etc?

I'm not sure. It would be interesting to see the what categories are grouped together. Competitive Touch football doesn't appear to be in there. It can't be included with the RL numbers because they appear too low.

 

[Gnostic]

Dwyer is a hypocrite.

He made no secret of the fact that if you wanted to be a wallaby you better play for Randwick.

Cheika seems to sing the same song.

Randwick and Uni have shown no real interest in the grass roots - unless, that is, if they happen to be someone else's grass roots, so that in the last 3 years they have recruited oz schoolboys who were juniors at other Shute Shield clubs to the point discussed in the colts 2017 thread where they have so many oz schools players that they'll be playing 3rd grade - they cant play 3rds colts!

As many of us have said warehousing these players slows (if not stops) their development, skews the competition and does SFA for the clubs in the areas where the grass roots might actually sprout.

Uni seem to have backed off a bit on this - and they have fielded juniors sides in state comps in the past, so I assume they are doing something beyond pouncing with bonus points etc. after the HSC.

We need weekly competition to hone the play of our players: as far as I can see the only place this might happen is in the 6 team GPS comp - 5 weeks of competition from which they pick the rep teams: no wonder the conversion rate from oz schools to wallaby is so low.

So for Dwyer to lament the lack of attention to the grass roots is a bit rich: how are the wicks juniors going?

Here endeth the lesson.

If you have want to have a rant at least try and make it factual. 1991 side had:-
Kearns, McKenzie, Poidevin, Campese from Randwick. 4/15. Which of them would you have dropped?
Cheika has that same ideology obviously since I can't remember the last time I saw a first choice Wallaby play club level. Probably 5-6 years ago.

If you are a teacher no wonder the nation has slid so far on the academic stakes.

Didn't you say that the great NRC was the solution to development of Pro players?

As Half said, plenty of people have been predicting this outcome for many years and trying to alert "fans" and officials alike to the dangers but were derided as pessimists and naysayers. Even when proved right the great and knowledgeable of the game can't admit they f*&^%& up and reply with derision again.

 

[chibimatty]

I wonder if this what happened in the West Indies after the ending of the golden era of Windies cricket? Wonder whether the causes were similar.

 

[Gnostic]

I wonder if this what happened in the West Indies after the ending of the golden era of Windies cricket? Wonder whether the causes were similar.

I think you'd need to have a look at the economic situation in the WI at that time.

 

[TOCC]

This is why it's not a simple case of "cut teams to save money", it ignores the economic cost of cutting a team and lost income and revenue that having those 5 teams generate.

The Victorian state government has plans to build a rugby centre of excellence planned into its next budget but the feeling is that Victorians would find it very difficult to accept taxpayers’ money going to a sporting body that had walked away.

Under plans currently before the government, the rugby centre would operate in partnership with a Melbourne university, with plans for scholarships that would tap into the fact that rugby is a global game.

 

[Quick Hands]

While I wouldn't necessarily accept the figures in the Morgan Research as gospel, I would point out that in the ARU Report of 2015 at 7.6% in 15 a side rugby was reported on page 24.

I'd reckon there would be a similar decline for most of the past 10-15 years - certainly in the past 10. So at the very least, the Morgan numbers are in the right post code.

https://issuu.com/australianrugbyunion/docs/aru_web?e=24291087/34741796

 

[wamberal]

This is why it's not a simple case of "cut teams to save money", it ignores the economic cost of cutting a team and lost income and revenue that having those 5 teams generate.

Of course it is a complex calculation. That is why it would be absolutely stupid for the ARU to come out and say anything at all until all the decisions have been made, and the financial and other fallout can be quantified, the interested parties have been consulted (and perhaps some pertinent negotiations conducted) to the extent that they can be.

 

[Strewthcobber]

While I wouldn't necessarily accept the figures in the Morgan Research as gospel, I would point out that in the ARU Report of 2015 at 7.6% in 15 a side rugby was reported on page 24.

I'd reckon there would be a similar decline for most of the past 10-15 years - certainly in the past 10. So at the very least, the Morgan numbers are in the right post code.

https://issuu.com/australianrugbyunion/docs/aru_web?e=24291087/34741796

The 2001 number seems much harder to believe than the 2016 one to be honest.

https://www.clearinghouseforsport.gov.au/Library/archive/digital_archive/rugby_union

2002 ARU annual report for 2001 had 33,700 seniors, 39,000 Schools (regular competition), 2000 women and 17,000 golden oldies. So something like 90,000 14+ participants

Add in 29,000 juniors, and 15,000 schools (gala days etc) for a total of 135,000.

2012 was the last year the ARU reported numbers based on some kind of reality in the annual report.

2012 ARU annual report had 41,225 seniors, 45,500 Schools (regular competition), 1300 women and 17,500 golden oldies. So something like 115,000 14+ participants

The total including sevens, schools (gala days) and juniors was 323,000 - so we're probably starting to get into the world of double counting now.

Has the damage really been that bad in the last 4 years?

 

[Brumby Runner]

The ARU have the power of veto - so if there is any reduction in teams then they are complicit in that reduction. They can't fob the blame off to the Kiwis or the Saffers.

This is I suspect the reason why they have said nothing - they have no idea how they are going to explain it and retain any credibility at all.

Which is why a merger would be the more likely option to cut one franchise. In their liitle minds, they would probably believe they are doing a good thing to keep some sort of reduced rugby presence in two centres rather than lose one altogether. What they seem to miss is that a merger would take on the worst aspects of any committee designed camel. Initially there would be a loss of many of the top notch players they claim we have too few of, and there is no guarantee, indeed probably no likelihood, of the merged side improving to become a force within Super Rugby and consequently we could look forward to further falling supporter bases over time.

 

[TOCC]

Of course it is a complex calculation. That is why it would be absolutely stupid for the ARU to come out and say anything at all until all the decisions have been made, and the financial and other fallout can be quantified, the interested parties have been consulted (and perhaps some pertinent negotiations conducted) to the extent that they can be.

Interested parties consulted?
Like the fans, teams and players?

CEO's of teams have been kept in the dark, there has been little dialogue from the ARU down to the club and they all remain uncertain of their futures. It's impacting in negotiations of contracts for sponsors, suppliers and players.

It's a absolute joke..

 

[wamberal]

The interested parties in terms of contractual obligations. That would include the franchises. Do you have any evidence that the franchises are not being kept in the loop?

As for the players and the fans, well, sorry old chap, we are not involved in the negotiations.


If this is a joke, I for one am not laughing. But it is the reality.

 

[louie]

If you have want to have a rant at least try and make it factual. 1991 side had:-
Kearns, McKenzie, Poidevin, Campese from Randwick. 4/15. Which of them would you have dropped?
Cheika has that same ideology obviously since I can't remember the last time I saw a first choice Wallaby play club level. Probably 5-6 years ago.

If you are a teacher no wonder the nation has slid so far on the academic stakes.

Didn't you say that the great NRC was the solution to development of Pro players?

As Half said, plenty of people have been predicting this outcome for many years and trying to alert "fans" and officials alike to the dangers but were derided as pessimists and naysayers. Even when proved right the great and knowledgeable of the game can't admit they f*&^%& up and reply with derision again.

That was 26 years ago. Useless to the current situation. Randwick have barely been a show of their former serves since 2004. Useless almost.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

If you have want to have a rant at least try and make it factual. 1991 side had:-
Kearns, McKenzie, Poidevin, Campese from Randwick. 4/15. Which of them would you have dropped?
Cheika has that same ideology obviously since I can't remember the last time I saw a first choice Wallaby play club level. Probably 5-6 years ago.

If you are a teacher no wonder the nation has slid so far on the academic stakes.

Didn't you say that the great NRC was the solution to development of Pro players?

As Half said, plenty of people have been predicting this outcome for many years and trying to alert "fans" and officials alike to the dangers but were derided as pessimists and naysayers. Even when proved right the great and knowledgeable of the game can't admit they f*&^%& up and reply with derision again.

Not one of them was a local junior.
Poidevin played as an adult for UNSW before going to Randwick.
Players playing Shute Shield in 1990/91 were told if they wanted tests to go to Wicks - one of them was in the 1991 RWC squad and played no games in the tournament.
Assuming i did say that the NRC was the path to producing better pro players: do you not recall the Randwick bleating (along with Uni) about not being able to stand alone?
Doing positive damage to the Cockatoos in the first year by having their spokesman talk about how they would stand alone the next season?
Randwick considers itself the litmus test of rugby - if they're happy everyone else should be or is irrelevant.
FFS, they used to bleat about never seeing their imported Wallabies and NSW players until the finals.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Dwyer is a hypocrite.
He made no secret of the fact that if you wanted to be a wallaby you better play for Randwick.
Cheika seems to sing the same song.
Randwick and Uni have shown no real interest in the grass roots - unless, that is, if they happen to be someone else's grass roots, so that in the last 3 years they have recruited oz schoolboys who were juniors at other Shute Shield clubs to the point discussed in the colts 2017 thread where they have smany oz schools players that they'll be playing 3rd grade - they cant play 3rds colts!
As many of us have said warehousing these players slows (if not stops) their development, skews the competition and does SFA for the clubs in the areas where the grass roots might actually sprout.

Randwick and Uni have done a great job in attracting talented school leavers to their Clubs and in doing so have minimised the risk of those players being lost to league.

If the authorities allow this to happen it will continue to happen, whether it's right or wrong.

I agree with you, but it's on the authorities to be proactive regarding this issue and find a solution to this problem without chasing players away from the game.

Sure: the idea that the Tahs let Folau (for his many limitations as a rugby player) sign with Uni is an absolute disgrace - sure he never plays for them but he might have pulled a lot interest if he'd signed for the 2 blues or Penrith.

 

[Quick Hands]

Has the damage really been that bad in the last 4 years?

Hard to say, there's certainly been a decline. The ARU report a 7.6% decline in the 12 months to their 2015 annual report. I'm taking that figure as being as accurate as these things can be. The accuracy of the 63% figure reported by Morgan is up for debate, particularly as the figures are likely to be rubbery - perhaps the 63% decline is reflective of the past ARU (and other sports too) practice of using dubious means to inflate figures, making a decline look worse than it otherwise might be.

Regardless, I think its hard to argue that there's been anything other than a significant decline in rugby participation over the past 15 years. The logical consequence of such a decline is a decline in the player pool for the elite game and thus a decline in the standard of elite level players.

 

[Quick Hands]

^^^As we've now entered the phase where we are debating how accurate the statistics are, it's time to bring in my old friend Mark Twain for a bit of comic relief.

 

[Twoilms]

We could probably pick up an extra few thousand fans just by removing the rolling maul.