Where to for Super Rugby?

[cyclopath]

Bill might be busy trying to get his car back at the moment.

 

[mudskipper]

Let's put down some facts around special assistance received by the Rebels.
2013 - $5.5m loan, since written off.
2014 - $3.3m loan, since written off.
2015 - increased support to Rebels of $1.6m
Imperium takeover June 2015 to 2021. $2.5m less than the other franchises.
Net difference $7.9m

In contrast Brumbies have lost money for 14 years straight, and have only avoided massive bailouts through selling of the family jewels in dubious circumstances. With a reported $1.5m left in the bank, there is every chance they will begin draining the ARU coffers in the next two years.






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Brumbies have invested in a 30 year paid in full up front state of the art team and training facility in Canberra... ACT government is looking to build a new $350 million stadium in Civic for the Brumbies and other teams. This wont be built if the Brumbies are cut...

 

[Quick Hands]

Remember the ARU are stating all participants there aren't they? Juniors? I'd say most of our participants are under 14.


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But remember, the ARU double and triple count people (as they acknowledged in their last annual report). So if a boy at primary school plays club rugby, plays 15 a side at school and the school also plays in a 7s tournament or gala day, that boy is counted three times in the stats.

 

[Quick Hands]

so,when is the ARU going to lift the maxwell smart cone of silence and say something?

They probably have little or no idea what to say. Maybe they are running things past some focus groups and/or corporate spinmeisters before uttering anything.

As they have the power of veto over any changes to super rugby, they really have nowhere to hide if one team has to go. And I'd suggest that they are deep in hiding.

Your use of Maxwell Smart and the ARU in the same post (intentionally or not) is quite apt.

 

[chibimatty]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7...cipation-australia-december-2016-201703200905

What's discouraging about that is how many of the sports with falling percentages are firmly part of Australian sports cultural identity. Tennis, cricket, netball, Aussie Rules, lawn bowls, billiards/snooker, hockey, rugby league, squash and rugby have all taken hits. Sports which are American or global; soccer, basketball, track and field, baseball are all on the increase.

I dunno if I'm being overly dramatic, but in the bigger scheme of things, that looks like an unfortunate cultural loss there.

 

[mst]

Brumbies have invested in a 30 year paid in full up front state if th art team and training facility in Canberra. ACT government is looking to build a new $350 million stadium in Civic fir the Brumbies and other teams. This wont be built if the Brumbies are cut.

Um, No. The Brumbies "invested" nothing, they are merely tenants who have pre-paid an undisclosed amount of rent, the period of time which that amount covers is also undisclosed. The money is gone and there is nothing to show for it. No capital, no investment, and no returns. They are at the mercy of the ACT Government and UC. The facility is also a shared facility occupied and used by other sporting organisations. This deal is what sounded the alarm bells for Jones and some details remain suppressed by the court order.

If it was capital their financial position would not be so precarious. On top of this "arrangement" the ACT Government also kicked in about $2mil in 2016.

 

[Gnostic]

Bill might be busy trying to get his car back at the moment.

Insurance - 2017 model coming up.

 

[half]

Just on the over 14 player numbers Roy Morgan say we have 48K. Others point out I assume correctly about junior numbers below that.

I have been doing a little back of the envelope calculations and its worth sharing if only as a discussion point.

I am going to make two broad assumptions, even if wrong they hopefully are not that far out.

Assumption 1 === 20% of the players are between 14 & 20.
Assumption 2 === 15% of the players are over 30.

Combining the under 20 and over 30 is 35%.

Assumption 3 === 35% from above of the older playing base are either too young or old for Super Rugby.

35% 0f 48, 000 = 16, 800 say 17, 000.

Taking away the 17, 000 from the 48, 000 = 31, 000.

We have 5 Super Rugby sides lets say a squad size is 35 players.

5 sides of 35 players = 175 players needed for Super Rugby.

taking the 31, 000 available players / 175 players needed = 177 say 178.

This means for every 178 players of age playing Rugby in Australia now you need to be the best in 178 to make it into a Super Rugby side.

If I look back to my days at the mighty Smithfield Rugby and even with Rose coloured glasses I struggle to recall anyone of this talent and even if I look at those soft cocks from St Ives we used to play in the Pig Cup at the start of each year I struggle to see across the two clubs that degree of talent.

Just thinking aloud maybe too much time on my hands.

 

[mudskipper]

Um, No. The Brumbies "invested" nothing, they are merely tenants who have pre-paid an undisclosed amount of rent, the period of time which that amount covers is also undisclosed. The money is gone and there is nothing to show for it. No capital, no investment, and no returns. They are at the mercy of the ACT Government and UC. The facility is also a shared facility occupied and used by other sporting organisations. This deal is what sounded the alarm bells for Jones and some details remain suppressed by the court order.

If it was capital their financial position would not be so precarious. On top of this "arrangement" the ACT Government also kicked in about $2mil in 2016.

They purchased a 30 year prepaid facilities lease.., 30 years.... Yes share with the Raiders which makes sense... Their past facilities were poir... tte former CEO made hus own troubles and costt the vlub greatly... No other club as invested in such a facility with their own money..... N

 

[The torpedo]

Insurance - 2017 model coming up.

In the meantime, he has to drive an old car from the '60s

 

[Ulrich]

What's discouraging about that is how many of the sports with falling percentages are firmly part of Australian sports cultural identity. Tennis, cricket, netball, Aussie Rules, lawn bowls, billiards/snooker, hockey, rugby league, squash and rugby have all taken hits. Sports which are American or global; soccer, basketball, track and field, baseball are all on the increase.

I dunno if I'm being overly dramatic, but in the bigger scheme of things, that looks like an unfortunate cultural loss there.

How's the general economy in Aus?

 

[Quick Hands]

Just thinking aloud maybe too much time on my hands.

Leaving aside your numbers half, it's obvious (or should be obvious to those running the game), that as your junior player base shrinks, there will be a knock on effect at all other levels of the game.

It's taken 15 years for this to hit the elite level (super and test rugby), but that's how long this has been coming. ARU, NSWRU et al have been getting warnings about this from those at the coal face for 15 years. Their own figures should also have set alarm bells ringing. Sadly the junior player base has continued to shrink, so things are more likely to get worse before they get better.

 

[Ulrich]

Leaving aside your numbers half, it's obvious (or should be obvious to those running the game), that as your junior player base shrinks, there will be a knock on effect at all other levels of the game.

It's taken 15 years for this to hit the elite level (super and test rugby), but that's how long this has been coming. ARU, NSWRU et al have been getting warnings about this from those at the coal face for 15 years. Their own figures should also have set alarm bells ringing. Sadly the junior player base has continued to shrink, so things are more likely to get worse before they get better.

If this is the case, what has been done, or attempted, in trying to rescue this and set it on the right course?

Has a study been conducted to determine why this is the case?

Does anyone seem to care?

 

[dru]

How's the general economy in Aus?

Feel that I should respond as it's the kind of question I ask about RSA. Note I speak as a non expert and responses may depend on your politics.

The Aus economy is a mixed bag. We just broke some kind of international record of years in a row without a recession. 25?

But growth has been dipping around 2% which is below trend and not really enough to keep things static. Better than much of the world though.

Agriculture is improving (floods and drought the usual issues) but mining fell of a cliff, clawing its way back. We rode the mining boom through the GFC. Tourism has had probs for ages. Education, a big sector here has mixed results. We more or less killed manufacturing by not continuing to support vehicle manuf. the $Aus is overvalued creating export issues.

Wealth is growing in the top 1% but stagnant elsewhere.

Govt lending is OK but budgets have structural issues where money is spent outside of true investment and has built in future probs. govt is in paralysis, ransomed by minor parties and independents, and a lack of bi-partisanship, where it is very hard to get legislation through. Happens whichever side you vote for. Budget is not likely to become more sensible while that continues.

There are real problems in the energy market and the housing bubble has been predicted to burst for years. May do sooner or later.

It's a mixed bag, but overall shouldn't be gravely impacting pro sport, albeit sponsorship will be getting harder.

 

[Ulrich]

Feel that I should respond as it's the kind of question I ask about RSA. Note I speak as a non expert and responses may depend on your politics.

The Aus economy is a mixed bag. We just broke some kind of international record of years in a row without a recession. 25?

But growth has been dipping around 2% which is below trend and not really enough to keep things static. Better than much of the world though.

Agriculture is improving (floods and drought the usual issues) but mining fell of a cliff, clawing its way back. We rode the mining boom through the GFC. Tourism has had probs for ages. Education, a big sector here has mixed results. We more or less killed manufacturing by not continuing to support vehicle manuf. the $Aus is overvalued creating export issues.

Wealth is growing in the top 1% but stagnant elsewhere.

Govt lending is OK but budgets have structural issues where money is spent outside of true investment and has built in future probs. govt is in paralysis, ransomed by minor parties and independents, and a lack of bi-partisanship, where it is very hard to get legislation through. Happens whichever side you vote for. Budget is not likely to become more sensible while that continues.

There are real problems in the energy market and the housing bubble has been predicted to burst for years. May do sooner or later.

It's a mixed bag, but overall shouldn't be gravely impacting pro sport, albeit sponsorship will be getting harder.

Thanks. I did not mean to come across as condescending. I was wondering whether your economy might have started shrinking more significantly than usual which may have some explanation in the shrinking of your sports.

For the most part SA "appears" the same economically as Australia if compared to what you have written, particularly in agriculture and mining. Tourism has been down due to politics and nothing else (requirement of birth certificate etc).

The Rand may be very very slightly undervalued presently, but there's just so much risk in this country as it is.

Back to the sports, economically your outlook is not as bright, but significantly brighter than the SA reality and where it's headed.

 

[dru]

^^^ You did not come across condescending. I think it a pertinant question.

 

[mst]

They purchased a 30 year prepaid facilities lease.., 30 years.. Yes share with the Raiders which makes sense. Their past facilities were poir. tte former CEO made hus own troubles and costt the vlub greatly. No other club as invested in such a facility with their own money... N

No. Not the case. The raiders have there own facilities (purpose built and not shared and capital) like other major sports in Canberra. A lot of sports use the $1 land deal available from the ACT Government to build and create capital. The co- tenants are / were UC linked (like the UC Capitals) bit I believe some have already moved on. Details around the lease ate scant but I find it incredible if people believe that they could pre pay 30 years rent with the little money they had.

 

[kiap]

I was wondering whether your economy might have started shrinking more significantly than usual which may have some explanation in the shrinking of your sports.

The more interesting idea may be the other way round, i.e. the country has become fat and soft on a relatively easy street. People have plenty other things to do besides watch and play sport.

Lean by necessity and hungry often breeds hardness and success. We had some of that in past times. Less of it now.

One third of the population doesn't know what a recession is. Not saying the economy is great but since 2000 we've had an average of 3 per cent growth, compared to Canada's 1.9 per cent and US with 1.8 per cent.

[of course, it could just be be down to maladministation by the sports]

 

[Braveheart81]

There has been a big drop off in organised sport in the teen years and adult years. That has been partly offset with growth in social sport but massively the switch is to go to the gym for exercise etc.

How many people do you think had gym memberships 15 years ago compared to today?

I think a lot of that is due to people having busier and more varying schedules and not being able to commit to being in the same place at the same time each and every week.

 

[wamberal]

Australian sport was, basically, the sport of the old British Empire. Our non-indigenous population used to be heavily skewed towards people of that ancestory, and the Irish.


Post war that started to change, and each successive wave of migration from different parts of the world has brought with it changed attitudes towards sport.


When I was a kid sport was important. Both for me to participate in, and also to watch. The changes to our demographic make-up have had a huge influence on general attitudes towards sport.