Wallaby Watch 2014

[Braveheart81]

Skelton doesn't appear to be a consistent lineout option though. He's taken 2 all year.

If you look at the Tahs lineout, they almost never have a 7 man lineout and Skelton is almost always in the backline ready for crash ball on their own throw.

It's just unusual that a lock is that crash ball runner. For a lot of teams it will be a back rower. It just depends who is good at that job.

 

[Braveheart81]

I'm a big Skelton fan, but simply put, the only way he gets on the field is if McCalman or Higginbotham is on the field at 8.

IMO Palu is the starting 8, which means Skelton is no chance of starting as you need at least 3 strong jumpers (Jones, Fardy, Simmons).

On the bench he is an option, but only if McCalman or Higginbotham is on for Palu.

At test level, you can't have any less than 3 top line jumpers on the field at once, unless it can leave the line out exposed.

Don't get me wrong, Skelton is playing great, but jumping is a big part of being a lock, so if he can't jump, other combinations have to be there for him to get on the field.

Palu is a perfectly decent lineout option. Dennis and Palu were the Tahs two main lineout options yesterday. Douglas wasn't thrown to once.

I don't see any issue with the lineout with Skelton coming off the bench given we're likely to have Simmons or Jones, Fardy and Palu/McCalman/Higgers on the field when that happens.

 

[Train Without a Station]

As it's announced on Thursday it's rampant squad speculation time! This is what I want to see taking into account form and injuries, though I doubt it will resemble this.

Props: Slipper, Sio, Smith, Kepu, Alexander, Longbottom
Hookers: Squeaky, TPN, Charles
Second Row: Simmons, Jones, Carter, Skelton
Back Row: Fardy, Higgers, Hooper (c), Hodgson, Palu, McCalman
Scrum Half: White, Genia, Phipps
Inside Backs: To'omua, Foley, McCabe, Godwin
Outside Backs: Badger, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Kuridrani, Izzy, Beale, Mogg

Yes no Horwill. He was stripped of captaincy last year due to form only made the EOYT because of injury crisis and was thoroughly average. His form has not improved this year. Time to move on, we desperately need to blood new talent in the second row now instead of hoping he magically gets good again in gold.

Edit: Swapped out Horne for Mogg. For now.

That's completely false. He wasn't a stand out but he was not thoroughly average. He's ball running was not as good as it had been and that's it. Scott Allen did an analysis and found he had been the most effective forward based on ruck work as well.

By all means critique players, and perhaps Horwill is not worthy if selection, though I disagree, but don't start making up past form to justify it.

He also didn't only make the EOYT because of injury crisis. He would have been benched for the England game, but injury meant he started and I think Douglas was on the bench. At worst, he was ranked by the coaching staff as the 3rd choice of 4 locks. So again , don't go making stuff up.

 

[Braveheart81]

That's completely false. He wasn't a stand out but he was not thoroughly average. He's ball running was not as good as it had been and that's it. Scott Allen did an analysis and found he had been the most effective forward based on ruck work as well.

Why am I not surprised?

There is no doubt that Horwill is getting through a lot of work each and every week, but from my viewing, he's not having a big impact with much of it at all. Whether that is partly due to other players not pulling their weight, I'm not sure, but the Wallabies will certainly need more quality and less quantity from Horwill if he is in the team for the June tests.

 

[Deputy Van Halen]

That's completely false. He wasn't a stand out but he was not thoroughly average. He's ball running was not as good as it had been and that's it. Scott Allen did an analysis and found he had been the most effective forward based on ruck work as well.

By all means critique players, and perhaps Horwill is not worthy if selection, though I disagree, but don't start making up past form to justify it.

He also didn't only make the EOYT because of injury crisis. He would have been benched for the England game, but injury meant he started and I think Douglas was on the bench. At worst, he was ranked by the coaching staff as the 3rd choice of 4 locks. So again , don't go making stuff up.

You're correct there actually, my bad. My (incorrect) memory was that he was only playing because of injury crisis. As you say he was definitely in the squad and would have been just been benched if not for said injury.

However I will stand by the fact he's never regained his form since his long term injury in 2012 and should not be picked. His ruck work may be good but he should be bending/breaking lines and smashing people in defense which he's just not. I'll never doubt his passion for the game but his form is just not up to it and probably never will be again.

 

[Train Without a Station]

Other than odd instances, which every player has, I haven't noticed a trend of it. But the point I was trying to make that to say he was "thoroughly average" or that his form has not improved are not true.

I think Qwerty hit the nail on the head regarding the fact that his effectiveness with ball in hand has been dulled. Considering he has put in some decent efforts (Blues game, first half of the Crusaders game for example) hopefully he is getting back to where he once was.

No real bearing on the June tests though, but more an indication to later in the year and beyond if he manages to perform at that level for 80 minutes, and weekly.

 

[Shiggins]

Say what you want about Simmons' form but the Reds lineout has remained one of the best in the comp thanks to Simmons, and to a lesser extent Horwill. I dont think you can afford to leave both out of the starting side. Not only do you lose a lot of test match experience, but you lose that ability in the line-out. I'd keep Simmons for his line-out work and general work rate.


It's debatable as to whether White played better than Genia this round. Genia has won us a lot of test matches. He may not be in top form but he was pretty good on Saturday despite losing Cooper early in the game. White didn't play the house down enough to unseed Genia IMHO.

Even burgess was in front of genia. I haven't seen genia do anything apart from pass recently. His kicking has been well bellow the likes of whites. You can't underestimate having a bloke in the test side that can nail penalties from 50 consistently. White brings too much to the table. Genia is lucky to have his bench spot. Let's hope that happens and gives him some motivation to find form. Quade has been playing white well so we can't blame him. The reds pack hasn't been as good as previous years and have nothing on the brumbies pack. Maybe this is the reason

 

[Train Without a Station]

Once again DVH, I disagree. He is a lock. You are describing a number 8.

Those things in a lock are also great, if he is taking care of business in the line out, the scrum, being a solid defender and hitting rucks.

Perhaps my memory and knowledge and lacking but I just can't remember all these great line bending and breaking locks that people expect Simmons and Horwill to be.

 

[cyclopath]

Once again DVH, I disagree. He is a lock. You are describing a number 8.

Those things in a lock are also great, if he is taking care of business in the line out, the scrum, being a solid defender and hitting rucks.

Perhaps my memory and knowledge and lacking but I just can't remember all these great line bending and breaking locks that people expect Simmons and Horwill to be.

Retallick.
Whitelock.


But to be fair, I don't expect Simmons to be a blunt instrument. Horwill, as @qwerty51 rightly said, has lost some of his grunt in contact that he used to have. I'm less pessimistic than some who think he's past it at all, but he is not near where we all want to see him. I'd be interested to see if he regains some fire in a Wallaby setup, rather than the Reds environment which is visibly sucking the life out of him at the moment.

 

[Train Without a Station]

People say he is past it in one breath and then say tight forwards mature later in the next.

He may never fully return to his physical best due to injury. It will pan it in the next 12 months and we'll all know for sure either way though.

 

[Braveheart81]

The biggest problem with Horwill and Simmons this season is that invariably, they are getting outplayed around the field by their direct opponents in most games in my opinion.

It's all well and good for the set piece to be solid and in the most part, the Reds scrum has been solid and the lineout excellent, but the physical contest in the loose between the forward packs is what decides many games. It seems to me that the Reds pair are losing this battle against much less fancied opposition far too frequently.

It's worrying that we could go into a test series with a pair that are getting outplayed by people not even close to making test teams.

 

[Benaud]

The advantage of Simmons is his lineout form hasn't faded. He was killing it late last year and we need someone in the side to control that area. There are elements of his game that are hard to swallow right now but I'd be picking him.

Horwill is a different matter. His form last year wasn't good. His form this year has been worse. He doesn't add any more to the lineout than Jones or Carter, and has been thoroughly outplayed by both all year. His recent vented frustrations highlight a beaten man that can't understand what's gone wrong with himself or his team. To pick him, you have to rely solely on form from 2-3 years ago.

I think Jones and Simmons will be the locks. Skelton offers a different but complimentary skillset and looks like a great bench option. Whether Horwill is picked in the squad as injury cover looks to be a straight battle with Carter. Given his current state of mind and the deleterious effect it could have on the squad, I'd be more inclined to go with Carter.

 

[Dumbledore]

The biggest problem with Horwill and Simmons this season is that invariably, they are getting outplayed around the field by their direct opponents in most games in my opinion.

It's all well and good for the set piece to be solid and in the most part, the Reds scrum has been solid and the lineout excellent, but the physical contest in the loose between the forward packs is what decides many games. It seems to me that the Reds pair are losing this battle against much less fancied opposition far too frequently.

It's worrying that we could go into a test series with a pair that are getting outplayed by people not even close to making test teams.

And the Reds scrum was pretty comprehensively beaten yesterday by a pack that will have at best one or two players in the Wallaby squad. Now that's obviously not only on Simmons and Horwill, but if they're going to be praised for when things go well they have to take some stick for when it doesn't.

Horwill looks deeply, deeply, unhappy with where he's currently at to me. I'd say he'd benefit most of anyone by getting into the Wallabies camp. That said, and I've mentioned it a few times, he lacks 'pop' in contact these days. Doesn't explode into people, either in the carry, tackle, or ruck. He's still an enormous man, and strong, but his body doesn't look like it's capable of what it used to be. If Link decides he wants Jones starting, I wouldn't be surprised to see Horwill lined up next to him - experience goes a long way and Jones could learn a lot from him.

 

[swingpass]

my bolter is Neville, now playing really well. great scrummager(TH), capable in the line out, really good defender and a massive engine. if Douglas is overlooked they may go for him. I think he is just a bit above Carter at the moment but seriously think these two, jones and coleman are the form locks.

BUT incumbency has always been a huge advantage, so simmons and horwill are likely to remain "in situ"

 

[Train Without a Station]

I think Carter is well ahead of Neville. He's put in 2 years of consistent high quality performances, not 2 weeks.

 

[swingpass]

don't disagree, but "at the moment" Neville is playing like he did 2 years ago when he went on the EOYT. I think both probably should be in the mix for RC and RWC but can't see the Wallabies blooding 3 or 4 new locks before next year.

 

[Scrubber2050]

No one can lift Skelton - thats why he doesn't jump

 

[en_force_er]

I like 1 bolter a squad. Ewen doesn't seem to, which is sensible.

Deans certainly did and some panned out (Hynes, Genia, and McCabe).

 

[Viking]

I'd have Carter as my first bolter for lock. There is lots of questions over his physicality at Test level but I had the same questions over Fardy before he debuted and he has been one of our best wallaby performers.

 

[daz]

Interesting comments by Link before the RedvRebels game. He said he has a weekly "whiteboard" meeting where the form players get discussed.

But he also takes a bit of historical performance along with longer range future view when picking the team.

What does all that mean? Fucked if I know. I guess we will find out on Thursday.