As I know bugger-all about the French squad, is it logical to assume that if the players from last week's "Top 14 final" are being 'rested', the French teams for the second and third tests will be stronger? If that is so, then would the omission of Genia from the 23, and Horwill from the 15, in the first test be more "understandable"?
I've been doing my research in an attempt to be the biggest know-it-all in the box Saturday night so I feel qualified to answer:
Maybe. It depends.
The French coach is notorious for doing whatever he likes without any apparent reason. This team, on paper, doesn't look like the strongest the French could put together but the French can't really ever be judged on paper. Their big wins have all been upsets so labeling the French weak may only make them stronger.
That said, the key player rested is Remi Tales (Castres #10) and he's been replaced by the bloke who didn't even make the bench for Toulon's final; Monsieur Michalak. Michalak is good (played some great football early in the season until Sir Johnny took over) but the side will be stronger with Remi there. It's worth noting that Michalak has 68 caps though, so its not like he'll be a major liability.
The Injury to/choice to rest Dusatoir does weaken the side a little, but mostly in terms of leadership. The Franco-African Le Roux is realistically just at good around the park. Also, Antoine Burban who is on the bench as Flanker cover is also an imposing force on the field.
The weak point, In my esteemed opinion, is the centre pairing. Fofana and Fickou will be looking for big shots (they have some wicked highlights on youtube) which will create big holes for Izzy to slide through. Watch for Matt To'omua to bounce out while Kuridrani runs a hard and obvious unders line with Tooms hitting Izzy running straight - My hot tip is you'll see this on the second attacking opportunity in the French half from outside the 22.
The other peculiar selection is Felix LeBourhis on the blind wing - He's a centre. It's not that strange in the context of Adam Two-dads playing wing too but I think we'll see him struggle on Saturday.
P.S. I look forward to seeing Sam Carter break people in half on Saturday.