After 20 weeks of Rugby we’re down to just two remaining teams. The best two teams. And I don’t think anyone could argue that this final will be a truly epic event. The script could not have been better written. A full house of 50,000 cheering Aussies will be on hand to support their team. Hoping they can win their first trophy in the pro-era. And their opposition are no less than the most successful team in SANZAR, the Crusaders. With no less than 7 pro-era titles to their name. With all that has happened in Christchurch this year even the most ardent Reds fan could not begrudge them an 8th title.
I think this game will largely come down to which team handles the pressure of a final and which team is best able to take advantage of the limited scoring opportunities that present. Both goal kickers will need to be accurate with Ewen McKenzie no doubt hoping that Quade Cooper can kick more consistently than he did last weekend against the Blues.
These teams are at the same time both very similar and very different.
First the similarities. Both teams have tried to develop a team based culture, where the team is greater than the sum of its parts. Both teams have been able to take players who were discarded or unwanted elsewhere and make them better. Both teams are full of hard workers (George Whitelock, Beau Robinson, James Horwill, Brad Thorn, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Daley) whose value is their ability and willingness to do the unfashionable grunt work for 80 minutes. This allows the potency and flair in both teams to shine. Both teams have established cultures where personal ambitions run a distant second to the good of the team. I don’t think there are two teams in the competition that work harder at the breakdown. Both teams have dominated the crucial breakdown area because every player, from 1-22, is willing and able to attack the breakdown like an openside flanker, be it to secure a turnover, retain possession or contest for the ball.
Both teams have shown the ability to change their playing style depending on the situation and the opponent. This shows a rare degree of tactical smarts that comes down to good coaching and most importantly the presence of smart players in key positions (Carter, Ellis, Genia and Cooper). Both teams have shown the ability to win pretty and win ugly. Both teams can win a game up front, or put teams to the sword with dangerously potent backs. They can win tight, dour contests or blow teams away with a flurry of line breaks and tries. Both teams can play a kick-centric game or keep the ball in hand.
But there are some differences too. The Crusaders have some advantages in terms of experience. They have 11 players who have contested a final, compared to the Reds’ two. They have a superior scrum and this could potentially be very important. However, they will be massively disadvantaged with their travel schedule.
As for the Reds, they boast the world’s best half back and an outrageously gifted attacking first five (compared to the conservative Carter). Genia and Cooper will obviously be crucial to any Reds success. The Reds should also be much fresher and more comfortable having played in Brisbane last weekend. The Reds are also a much younger and presumably hungrier team. Whilst some Crusaders players are nearing the end of their careers and many have already tasted Super Rugby success, the Reds are just beginning their run at the top. The hunger for success should be a driving factor for them. Don’t underestimate the travel and youth factor, particularly late in the game if the match is close. I would imagine it would be harder to motivate yourself to dig deep for your team's 8th title than it might be to win your first ever pro-era title. The Reds' players have the opportunity to create some history and I have no doubt this will be highly motivational.
Overall I think this game is too close to call. I hope the Crusaders can pull off what will be a remarkable win, but something inside tells me that it is the Reds' fate to win this season. My heart says Crusaders but my head says the Reds. I believe that teams which play positive, dynamic rugby are nearly always rewarded and no team has been more positive or more dynamic over the past two years than the Reds.
PS - sorry about the length of the post.