RWC 2011 QF1: Ireland v Wales (W Pool C v RU Pool D)

[the plastic paddy]

I think this will be one of the best games of the tournament.


Ireland have surprised me. As I have mentioned before they had just two good games in the last 12 months before the RWC IMO and their trial form was poor. Even their first RWC game against the USA was problematic.


Against Oz they played their best game since against England in 6N and they looked handy against Italy too. I have written about Ireland on another thread so won't rehash that stuff again, but it is good to see SOB getting the plaudits he deserves now. I said before the RWC that he will be one of the stars of the tournament and I think it will be close to the mark. The comment didn't resonate with some folks on the forum who hadn't seen a lot of him before, but I'm sure they appreciate his quality now – yet he is playing out of position.


Most of the Ireland team are playing well. 1. Healey is scrummaging better than I thought he would and Ross is keeping his form as one of the best THPs in Europe. The scrum contest against Wales, who have the heaviest pack in the RWC, will be interesting - provided Ireland can keep Court off the field for a long time.


I'm pleased to say that my prediction that 10. ROG would be starting in the money games ahead of Sexton came true, but wrong in a sense because I thought he would start against Oz also.


And by the by: who in Ireland, or any other part of the world, thought that young 9. Conor Murray , probably 4th ranked at Munster 12 months ago (and who played from the bench for the winning Munster dirt-trackers against the Wallabies), would be starting for Ireland in the Quarter Final of the RWC?


The Ireland team is as expected. They have been lucky that they haven't had any major injuries since 7. Wallace was hurt before the team left for NZ, because like Oz, their depth is not great. So long as 13. BOD, 5. POC, 7. SOB and 3. Ross stay healthy they could surprise some people even more than they have already.


I wrote before the RWC that the Leinster and Munster players had so much experience in HC and ML finals that they could turn that into an advantage after the pool stages. That holds true.
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I would have had Murray starting against Aus but doubted if DK would be that adventurous. Conor Murray, with luck with fitness, could well prove to be one of the great SHs of all time IMHO. He has only started 11 first class games!!! Staggering when you think about it. Looking forward to seeing how he gets on against Phillips, I think the young fella will more than hold his own.

 

[Lee Grant]

Wales

If Ireland has surprised me, Wales haven't. They were decent in parts the 6N excepting for their poor discipline, and an indifferent performance against France. Then recently they were more impressive than Ireland were in the trial games and even in the game they lost (the 1st of the England trials) their forwards played well.


They were on the rise and they even impressed in the 1st round loss against the Boks. Wales boasted that after their training camp in Poland they would be one of the fittest sides at the RWC and you can see that they are.


It looks like Wales will be on the go with their backline chock full of attacking players. A few month's back I wouldn't have thought 10. Priestland would be playing there ahead of 23. Hook; nor S.Jones, who will be watching from the grandstand. Nor would I have thought that Halfpenny would be playing fullback. [And help me out here CB: how often has he played there for the Blues, as I can't remember too many times?] He'll be handy kicking the long goals, but one expected that if Byrne was going to be overlooked, then Hook would get the gig.


I thought that Shane Williams was a tad lucky to be in the main side returning from injury. He was lazy on defence against the Boks when Hougaard scored. Caught close in, he turned his back to the threat initially to post himself wider, and super-sub was through. Still, he's a match winner and is still an automatic choice when fit.


As with SOB for Ireland I think Aussies are appreciating 7. Warburton more, excepting those who remember his playing against Oz nearly a year ago. Not too many would have known about big, teenage winger North and have probably been gob-smacked, as I was watching him for Scarlets early last season. The lad is going to be around for a long time.


Wales fans will be chuffed about how 12. Roberts has played recently. IMO he had been notably average since his brilliant Lions tour; so his return to form comes at the perfect time.


Now that 1. Jenkins is fighting fit and seemingly match fit also, the Wales scrum should be formidable, and no change will be given Healey by 3. Adam Jones either. Apart from in the scrums, Jenkins adds extra busyness in the contact zone and, yes, we still remember his pilfers against the Wobs on our last EOYT. It's a pity that 2. Rees wasn't fit enough to come to NZ but you can't have everything.


I think Wales will shade Ireland in this one, thinking that Ireland have been playing above themselves, but I will not be surprised if I am wrong because of the experience of a lot of the Ireland players in finals rugby.
.

 

[Lee Grant]

I would have had Murray starting against Aus but doubted if DK would be that adventurous. Conor Murray, with luck with fitness, could well prove to be one of the great SHs of all time IMHO. He has only started 11 first class games!!! Staggering when you think about it. Looking forward to seeing how he gets on against Phillips, I think the young fella will more than hold his own.

That's a big call paddy and a big call by Deccie. Who would have thought that when TOL had that freak accident and Murray got a bench spot for Munster and then a start, that he would supersede everybody at Munster eventually and even get in the RWC squad?

Sliding doors.

 

[Cardiffblue]

No, you don't. Dim Count Wellycula ar yr bbenchio.

Bloody Hell Thomond- hadn't noticed that! The man they call Brian prefered at outside half to Wellies. That's going to take some thought to work out permutations. Spose Hook can cover more positions -still, I'd have thought that Jones' experience and nerve might prove crucial. Don't like this. As they say elswhere, 'the gnome has gone for a walk outside'

 

[Cardiffblue]

Lee - regarding your post above.

Great analysis - feeling calmer. Just one point re: Shane- agree he hasn't shone, but when Wales were butchering everything, it was Shane that rescued the move for try and killed the game for Samoa

 

[Lee Grant]

CB - how often does Halfpenny play fullback for the Blues? I can't remember too many times.

Once out of about how many, roughly?

 

[Cardiffblue]

Point taken but do you think Hook is playing well enough to pick at FB? In my selection on this site I couldn't pick between them. As Rugby Nick pointed out, Hook isn't a FB either. In the end I just think they have chosen the 22 that are 1) on form and 2) offer the greatest flexibility in terms of positional replacements. You are right. there's an argument for keeping backs as per last weekend just swapping Byrne for Hook. It'd have been be a massive call to leave a fit Shane out tho.

 

[Lee Grant]

Yeah - I never thought ickle would be dropped, just that he was lucky that they didn't judge his defensive lapse against the Boks more harshly. He can tackle as you will remember in a RWC trial defending his goal line once, head on, but sometimes his diligence is wanting. Have a look at that incident again if you get the chance. I don't recall anybody mentioning it and Hougaard may have been too hard to stop anyway. If not it may have lost the game.

The only reason I thought about Hook as fullback is that I have seen him play there quite a bit, but not Halfpenny. Still he is the ideal sub since he can play 10,12,13 and 15 and will be useful from the bench, especially if Priestland loses his nerve.

I think ROG will try to find Halfpenny out of position, but let's see.

Davies may have felt unlucky to be left out of the starting team since he has been in good form after being quiet in the trials, but he should impact well from the bench. Another who has taken my eye is Scott Williams. I've never rated him much but he has his hand up now. I don't rate the reserve props and hookers in the squad though. The starting 3 should play as long as they can - not that Ireland is notably better off.

For me most impressive thing about Wales since the start of the trials has been that they have a huge pack that play big with it. I have never noticed that much before, even when they got the Slam a few years back.

 

[Scotty]

I can see Ireland reverting to a similar game plan they employed vs the Wallabies. A Bomb-a-thon where they slow the game down as much as possible.

The result of the game basically comes down to how much Ireland are allowed to slow the ruck down, how much they are allowed to extend each stoppage and how effective Wales are at countering these tactics.

I am would like to see Wales win as they play with the ball in hand, and it is great to watch. If we can get a Wales vs Aus or NZ final it will be good for rugby, and hopefully negate some of the damage done by the 2007 RWC.

The best outcome for a spectacle point of view for this game is for Wales to get an early lead which will force Ireland to use their backline (which is quite good when they do use it).

 

[Cardiffblue]

My dream (one of many) is that we get far enough ahead early to take the pressure off. You're right tho Scotty. The Irish tactic will be absolutely as you describe. Hopefully, unlike Australia, it won't take us by surprise. 26 hours to go til we find out.

watched highlights of wales vs Ireland 2003 this morning. Brought me down to earth with a bump. God we were cr@p that day. Had to watch my grand slam vids again to pick myself up

 

[Hugh Jarse]

CB

Stop taking so much caffine and have a good lie down.

 

[Thomond78]

Are you joking?

By comparison with most of his countrymen, CB's as happy as Mongo in a golf-cart. Take a look at Gwlad, FFS; the regular Hot Belief Injections from the Optimism Gnome's Hosepipe of Hope have them as frantic as a Turk in a nursery.

 

[Thomond78]

Are you joking?

By comparison with most of his countrymen, CB's as happy as Mongo in a golf-cart. Take a look at Gwlad, FFS; the regular Hot Belief Injections from the Optimism Gnome's Hosepipe of Hope have them as frantic as a Turk in a nursery.

 

[Cardiffblue]

Are you joking?

By comparison with most of his countrymen, CB's as happy as Mongo in a golf-cart. Take a look at Gwlad, FFS; the regular Hot Belief Injections from the Optimism Gnome's Hosepipe of Hope have them as frantic as a Turk in a nursery.

Had to switch gwlad off after that 'Warburton out' thread started - strangled the gnome and kicked him 50m down the road. He's back now, mind

 

[Rugby Nick]

It looks like Wales will be on the go with their backline chock full of attacking players. A few month's back I wouldn't have thought 10. Priestland would be playing there ahead of 23. Hook; nor S.Jones, who will be watching from the grandstand. Nor would I have thought that Halfpenny would be playing fullback. [And help me out here CB: how often has he played there for the Blues, as I can't remember too many times?] He'll be handy kicking the long goals, but one expected that if Byrne was going to be overlooked, then Hook would get the gig.
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Maybe half a dozen games, and almost always against poor oppo, none in the Heineken cup for example. But iirc he did start out playing rugby there, and he was certainly our most dangerous player vs Samoa when he came on at 15

 

[Rugby Nick]

I think ROG will try to find Halfpenny out of position, but let's see.

Better to aim at the wings imo. Shane has never been great when targetted with bombs, and George North! (exclamation point explained here - http://welshrugbyblog.co.uk/5-reasons-wales-will-win-the-rugby-world-cup/ - which Gagger never blwydi posted on here) has looked fallible under the high ball. Given that a mixture of high bombs out wide and clever corner kicks should be the order of the day. That said get it wrong and you have Shane, Halfpenny and George North! running it back at you - not a good sight for defenders...

 

[Cardiffblue]

Hey Nick, How's the weather forecast for wellington tomorrow?

 

[Rugby Nick]

Hey Nick, How's the weather forecast for wellington tomorrow?

rain in the morning, clearing up for the afternoon. From a Wales PoV let's hope it does clear nicely. Wet will favour RoG/Irish pack

 

[#1?]

Hey Cardiff Blue. Your Location says Sydney. You are new here, so I guess you are over from Wales on holiday for RWC. Why are you in Sydney and not in NZ? If you are in Sydney why are you not out and about doing all the standard Tourist things that UK usually do?
With your posting history it looks like you are stuck in a hotel room with a laptop, and Fox Sports 3 on getting an overdose of rugby. No real live footy on at the moment, you must be getting twitchy from withdrawal symptoms.

 

[Cardiffblue]

Hey Cardiff Blue. Your Location says Sydney. You are new here, so I guess you are over from Wales on holiday for RWC. Why are you in Sydney and not in NZ? If you are in Sydney why are you not out and about doing all the standard Tourist things that UK usually do?
With your posting history it looks like you are stuck in a hotel room with a laptop, and Fox Sports 3 on getting an overdose of rugby. No real live footy on at the moment, you must be getting twitchy from withdrawal symptoms.

I live here. Stuck at a computer in work- Can't afford the airfare to get to wellington. Watching last week's game was a challenge to find a pub that showed it- even the mickers were dressed for Ire vs Ita but were watching NRL