Aussie Player Exodus

[KOB1987]

Have you ever been to a local junior rugby league game? Junior numbers are massive.

I have. I’ve also been to a junior rugby game. What is the relevance of that to overall player numbers?

 

[HogansHeros]

The one place Rugby has it over League is the Amature Senior comp. In league it is almost non-existent. I played 1 year of Jail rugby out of school in the local C grade (essentially U19 colts) side and it sucked. The subbies system although flawed is much better.

 

[Wallaby Man]

I have. I’ve also been to a junior rugby game. What is the relevance of that to overall player numbers?

Outside the premier clubs in Brisbane and Sydney there isn’t many rugby clubs that would remotely come close to what junior rugby league clubs are offering in terms of juniors. My local rugby competition in qld has had to combine 2 years worth of players to have sufficient numbers to put a team out, meanwhile my kids this year have decided to play league. Every grade has essentially 2 teams per age grade.

I agree rugby has a monopoly on senior numbers but these numbers don’t come enough to accommodate the massive juniors league has.

 

[KOB1987]

Outside the premier clubs in Brisbane and Sydney there isn’t many rugby clubs that would remotely come close to what junior rugby league clubs are offering in terms of juniors. My local rugby competition in qld has had to combine 2 years worth of players to have sufficient numbers to put a team out, meanwhile my kids this year have decided to play league. Every grade has essentially 2 teams per age grade.

I agree rugby has a monopoly on senior numbers but these numbers don’t come enough to accommodate the massive juniors league has.

It’s certainly not the case in my local comp, and I’m outside Sydney. I did say there were exceptions, yours is obviously one, and there would be others. Also, I’m not necessarily saying there are a lot more rugby players than jail rugby players at the community levels, and maybe there aren’t even more at all. It’s nowhere near 1.8x though, let alone 10x.

 

[Wallaby Man]

It’s certainly not the case in my local comp, and I’m outside Sydney. I did say there were exceptions, yours is obviously one, and there would be others. Also, I’m not necessarily saying there are a lot more rugby players than jail rugby players at the community levels, and maybe there aren’t even more at all. It’s nowhere near 1.8x though, let alone 10x.

x10 is ridiculous whoever said that. But personally would be shocked if it wasn’t x2

 

[KOB1987]

x10 is ridiculous whoever said that. But personally would be shocked if it wasn’t x2

Even the numbers I’m disputing don’t have it as x2, it’s x1.8. You seem to be talking about juniors only and excluding the Sydney and Queensland premier rugby zones for that even, so you’re removing a large proportion of the pool and creating a biased population. I’m talking total participants v total participants.

 

[Sword of Justice]

My local rugby competition in qld has had to combine 2 years worth of players to have sufficient numbers to put a team out,

This is fairly common across all sports that I’ve been involved in.

 

[Wallaby Man]

This is fairly common across all sports that I’ve been involved in.

Never seen it in my local area. I grew up playing the same comp and we never had to combine with the age grade above or below to have sufficient numbers. My kids also play basketball and cricket and definitely isn’t happening in those sports and isn’t happening this year in league.

So fairly uncommon as far as I’m concerned

 

[Marce]

The one place Rugby has it over League is the Amature Senior comp. In league it is almost non-existent. I played 1 year of Jail rugby out of school in the local C grade (essentially U19 colts) side and it sucked. The subbies system although flawed is much better.

That's due the system. In the NFL there are only 1,600 professional athletes in a country of 300 million. That's cause if you have 25 years and you aren't in the system, you don't have a spot. It's cruel.

The Shute Shield players and other should be professionals, in a perfect world. They aren't cause there are not enough funds, sponsorship, viewership

 

[fatprop]

Never seen it in my local area. I grew up playing the same comp and we never had to combine with the age grade above or below to have sufficient numbers. My kids also play basketball and cricket and definitely isn’t happening in those sports and isn’t happening this year in league.

So fairly uncommon as far as I’m concerned

Happened to me in a couple of years junior rugby

 

[KOB1987]

It happens in our comp but mainly because the smaller towns aren't able to field a team for every age group. The bigger clubs will have 2 or even 3 teams entered in each age category.

 

[JRugby2]

Whilst none a world beaters (yet) this is a pretty reaching take.

I think the environment and players around hurt 10s more than their own ability.

Noah
Donaldson
Lynagh
All proven Super Rugby starters

HMP
Bowen
Good prospects

Quade
Foley
Lealifano
JOC (James O'Connor) (James O'Connor)
Test Vets still floating around

Creighton
Edmed
Burey
Jack Deb
Super Rugby able

Harrison
Lucas

Sam Greene? - Regular 10/15 playing in Japan for last few. Wonder if he's playing for his 5 year residency though.

International based but huge potential

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

The one place Rugby has it over League is the Amature Senior comp. In league it is almost non-existent. I played 1 year of Jail rugby out of school in the local C grade (essentially U19 colts) side and it sucked. The subbies system although flawed is much better.

Was going to say. Rugby gets our numbers inflated due to the social aspect of the game in many places. League don't do this. You might get a few in country areas have an occasional run in reserve grade but its very rare.

It's almost all about getting some cash and trying to push further with it. Even Country A graders want to get a NSW Cup gig or metro cup gig.

There are more guys playing at what you would call semi pro/elite adjacent then Rugby. Less exposed when they get to the NRL unlike our guys appearing in Super Rugby and being punched in the face by the increase in speed.

Sam Greene? - Regular 10/15 playing in Japan for last few. Wonder if he's playing for his 5 year residency though.

Good shout. There's even been guys who are probably a bit old now but went to the MLR like Sam Windsor who given the right set up would have made a Super Rugby squad.

 

[eastman]

That's due the system. In the NFL there are only 1,600 professional athletes in a country of 300 million. That's cause if you have 25 years and you aren't in the system, you don't have a spot. It's cruel.

The Shute Shield players and other should be professionals, in a perfect world. They aren't cause there are not enough funds, sponsorship, viewership

Not true Marge, one of the benefits of rugby is that it doesn’t have to be that brutal (and you don’t have to be that fit). Whereas league is just hard/ tough work.

There will always be demand for amateur senior rugby.

 

[Wallaby Man]

Was going to say. Rugby gets our numbers inflated due to the social aspect of the game in many places. League don't do this. You might get a few in country areas have an occasional run in reserve grade but its very rare.

It's almost all about getting some cash and trying to push further with it. Even Country A graders want to get a NSW Cup gig or metro cup gig.

There are more guys playing at what you would call semi pro/elite adjacent then Rugby. Less exposed when they get to the NRL unlike our guys appearing in Super Rugby and being punched in the face by the increase in speed.


Good shout. There's even been guys who are probably a bit old now but went to the MLR like Sam Windsor who given the right set up would have made a Super Rugby squad.

I work for a company here in Aus and NZ that collects data on so much stuff. Here is what I found when looking at it. (I can’t give direct numbers as would potentially be in breach).

Nationally

All ages - roughly 1.5x the amount of league players than rugby
Juniors - more than twice the amount of league juniors
18-24 - more league but numbers start to catch up in participants.
25+ - more league players still

Major rugby states

(NSW)

Juniors - roughly 50% more league than union participants
18-24 - league very marginally more, fairly even
25+ - fairly similar

(QLD)

Juniors - 5x more league juniors
18-24 - 50% more league participants
25+ - 3x more league

And because people have discussed NRL and Super Rugby in NZ. Here is some stats based on age

14-17 - almost 3x watch more rugby
18-25 - fractionally more NRL watchers
25-50 - fractionally more Super Rugby watchers
50+ - 2x Super Rugby viewers

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

So the fact we carry a social aspect of the game and still lag behind is a big problem.

That 18-24 is prime for the social game and Colts which our big Clubs can run 3-4 sides where a lot of League Clubs will run 1 under age and if you don't get picked you have been basically cut from the squad. We always had a handful of League blokes come for a run and they enjoyed it because you can find a grade for your speed/interest.

I'd love to see the age averages of Premier Grade comps in NSW, QLD, ACT. It's got to be coming down quick. Rarely do you have the blokes 28+ now staying on like they use to. Usually only a pro coming back from injury or dropped back. Whilst the standard is good it doesn't help the 21 year olds to just be playing guys a year or two older than them. I want the Jack Barretts having to deal with the 29 year old Prop who's been doing it forever.

 

[KOB1987]

I guess that explains why my perception was different to what was being reported - the big difference is in Qld, I had my blue goggles on.

 

[Sword of Justice]

I guess that explains why my perception was different to what was being reported - the big difference is in Qld, I had my blue goggles on.

I think there is an element of validity to that reading but my perception is that AFL and soccer have been more successful in NSW which eats the lunch of both Rugby and League but especially League. Rugby only competes with League in QLD. At least my perception.

 

[Braveheart81]

My response re the Petaia/NFL chatter. I believe the NFL scouts have a lot more idea of what they are looking for than any of us.

Arguably the International Pathway Program is as much about creating overseas interest in the NFL than it is about uncovering players. If they weren't additional to the rest of the squad none of these players would be close at the point they are signed.

depends on the definition. He will make a team, participate in preseason.
If Val Holmes and Hayne can find their way into a squad of 53. Petaia being a international rugby player certainly is a chance

Neither of them made a 53 man roster. They were kept outside that as practice squad members.

Val Holmes was trying to play wide receiver which is very difficult without a background in the sport.

I think running back is the only logical position for NRL/rugby athletes to try and play but likewise I don't think any of them are really likely to make it.

The massive units trying to play O Line like Jordan Mailata might happen a bit more but that was a three year project. I think more teams will invest in that sort of path because the potential payoff is huge but there are also very few guys like that. Will Skelton has the frame but then you need that guy to head to the US before they've really started into their career because they need to be young to have a chance at succeeding with the conversion.

I think Mailata was ideal in the sense that he was obviously an excellent athlete but was likewise a bit big to really succeed in league.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Arguably the International Pathway Program is as much about creating overseas interest in the NFL than it is about uncovering players. If they weren't additional to the rest of the squad none of these players would be close at the point they are signed.


Neither of them made a 53 man roster. They were kept outside that as practice squad members.

Val Holmes was trying to play wide receiver which is very difficult without a background in the sport.

I think running back is the only logical position for NRL/rugby athletes to try and play but likewise I don't think any of them are really likely to make it.

The massive units trying to play O Line like Jordan Mailata might happen a bit more but that was a three year project. I think more teams will invest in that sort of path because the potential payoff is huge but there are also very few guys like that. Will Skelton has the frame but then you need that guy to head to the US before they've really started into their career because they need to be young to have a chance at succeeding with the conversion.

I think Mailata was ideal in the sense that he was obviously an excellent athlete but was likewise a bit big to really succeed in league.

Yeah Mailata was probably too big and would have lacked the ability to maintain leg speed for an entire NRL game. They got him at the right age to let him develop and train him in technique. He probably could have played Rugby as an 8 but would have needed his interest.

Was actually reading about how the PI % is climbing quickly across the NFL and College football. I’d expect even more scouts to be travelling down here and through the pacific looking for monsters. Hawaii and Utah got them onto it.