That's nothing, Tahs missed the 2009 finals by 4 for/against points, had one more win than the Crusaders as well.
From what I learn from the official website of the competition, with the new conference system if two or more teams have the same points, than the team that has won more matches is up in the ladder.
http://www.superxv.com/about/index.asp
That should mean that if the Reds get five points against the 'tahs and either Bulls or Sharks get only four points, the Reds are in the 6th place and get access to the play-offs. Am I wrong? In this case, access to the play-offs should be
only most difficult, but not impossible.
Anyway, it would really be a pity if we didn't see the Reds in the final stage of the competition, they lost a lot of points beacuse of injuries, the've been just unlucky. I reckon that once in the play-offs, they would be capable of doing anything.