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Will the Reds make the Final?

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flat_eric

Alfred Walker (16)
Reds are just about done. It's unfortunate that one of the form teams with a potential win loss record of 11-5 will most likely miss out on finals footy but that's the nature of the competition.
 

TSR

Andrew Slack (58)
The good news is there are 4 teams who could slip up and boil overs are not unheard of in this comp. We only need one of these teams to have an off day (or their opponents to come out with a blinder). My hope is that the Sharks slip up, which I see as the most likely upset. And I hope the Brumbies have a win. As P.Tah noted in another topic - I'd much rather see an Australian team genuinely in the top 3.
 

No4918

John Hipwell (52)
Blues can surprise the Brumbies if they don't improve andCheetahs at home can hopefully surprise the Sharks. Long way to go yet. Bonus point is a must this week either way.
 

disco

Chilla Wilson (44)
How does it work if the Reds win with a bonus point next week & the Sharks & Bulls both win without a bonus point, will it come down to for & against or games won?
 
T

Train Without a Station

Guest
Did the Lions not beat the Sharks a few weeks ago? I'd say the Cheetahs rolling the Sharks could be our best hope. That being said, for what could be the last ever game as the Lions, the boys from Jo'Burg may fire up for the Bulls. Does anybody know if this is at Loftus or Coca Cola Park?
 

disco

Chilla Wilson (44)
Well if it's games won then if we win with a bonus point &the Sharks only win then we're in.
YaY
 

tragic

John Solomon (38)
Unfortunately I can't see us getting a bonus point against the tahs - more likely we'll throw caution to the wind and come up short (or even lose - the tahs will take all points on offer and we'll likely sacrifice a few shots at goal to have a crack at the bonus point) Pity we're the first game for the weekend and won't know if the sharks or bulls have bottled it.
I think our season is over - probably by a single point.
Its a shame with a likely 11-5 record when some 10-6 records will get through but I guess that's the way the conference system and bonus point system works.
I really hope the brumbies put up a good showing but I can't see them getting past the first week. Although they've come close they haven't beaten one of the current top seven sides this year and were lucky not to play the crusaders or stormers.
Let's hope 2012 was our anus horribilus with injuries and an aussie side lifts the trophy again next year.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
That's nothing, Tahs missed the 2009 finals by 4 for/against points, had one more win than the Crusaders as well.
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
It happened multiple times for the Brumbies too.......

In the end you've got to have the points.......
 

Woodenspoon

Herbert Moran (7)
That's nothing, Tahs missed the 2009 finals by 4 for/against points, had one more win than the Crusaders as well.
From what I learn from the official website of the competition, with the new conference system if two or more teams have the same points, than the team that has won more matches is up in the ladder.

http://www.superxv.com/about/index.asp

That should mean that if the Reds get five points against the 'tahs and either Bulls or Sharks get only four points, the Reds are in the 6th place and get access to the play-offs. Am I wrong? In this case, access to the play-offs should be only most difficult, but not impossible.
Anyway, it would really be a pity if we didn't see the Reds in the final stage of the competition, they lost a lot of points beacuse of injuries, the've been just unlucky. I reckon that once in the play-offs, they would be capable of doing anything.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
you are correct, it's unfortunate it wasn't in place early because most wins should always trump for/against points.

However as Scotty says, something tells me the Bulls and Sharks are going to get their 5 points quite easily
 

Woodenspoon

Herbert Moran (7)
However as Scotty says, something tells me the Bulls and Sharks are going to get their 5 points quite easily
I don't know much about South African rugby, but I don't see any reason why the Lions and the Cheetahs should make Bulls and Sharks' job easier, especially when those teams often hear rumors about a "forced" merge or relegation from Super Rugby to make space for the Southern Kings. However, it's sure they are not strong sides and as if this wasn't enough they play away.
It'll be more difficult for the Reds to score four tries against the Waratahs and earn the bonus point, that's for sure.
But let's believe in this miracle, the Reds surely deserve it after all they've been through this season and in the last matches they finally got the strenght that took them to the summit of the competition last year.
 

badabing59

Cyril Towers (30)
But let's believe in this miracle, the Reds surely deserve it after all they've been through this season and in the last matches they finally got the strenght that took them to the summit of the competition last year.[/quote]

I'm not sure 'deserve' is the right word. Poor form and injuries have plagued all the S15 teams this season. You have to earn your spot, you don't deserve it just because you won it last year.
 

Scotty

David Codey (61)
They don't deserve it, but they were unlucky with injury.

The were 3 tries up vs the sharks and should have scored another before half time but let them back in the game with a try and some weak defense.

They had the better of the game vs the saders, but a combination of Bryce penalising them 2:1 and their own inability to put the game away meant they lost. This was the game where I said after 'that loss is the one that will keep us out of the finals'.

If they took their points vs the saders or sharks then they would have deserved to be there!
 

Brisbok

Cyril Towers (30)
If they took their points vs the saders or sharks then they would have deserved to be there!

May be true, but I'm sure all 15 teams can point to certain events that happened in their season's and say "If this did/didn't happen, our season would have turned out differently!"

The Reds are not the only team who suffered an injury crisis or were on the wrong end of a weak reffing performance.
 
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