Where to for Super Rugby?

[sunnyboys]

Australian Super Rugby teams are verging on this ^^^^ description already...


and aren't we already at a small cohort of fans?? note the drop from 700k+ for tests down to 50-60k for Super Rugby games.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

The Wayne Smith article isn't that surprising. Of course we're not masters of our SANZAAR destiny - we never have been.



Now RA are faced with an unpalatable choice: run it back with a format that's not working, or blow it up and walk away and hope you can build something with the rubble that remains.



The local comp is fine and would work as the A-League and NBA do - a cheap local imitation of the rich foreign leagues, where a small cohort of fans watch talented youngsters, ageing vets and players who aren't quite good enough for Europe battle it out.



Then our Wallabies fly in for the international season and we maybe pick up our wider fanbase.



So really the situation is the same as it was a year ago, and 600 pages ago. We're between a rock and a hard place.



Fuck.

.

My concern is really to move forward it requires bold and brave decisions and given RA has lost a lot of credibility I don't think they are prepared to be brave or bold and which is required (and why like many think they are likely to agree to new super rugby concept that does not take us forward and only benefits NZ) and where in contrast Twiggy can be brave and bold with his plans. There has got to be some sort of leverage here for wider oz professional rugby to get more out of twiggy's plans and money. But like all we are still none the wiser if that is even close to reality.

 

[Braveheart81]

Australian Super Rugby teams are verging on this ^^^^ description already.


and aren't we already at a small cohort of fans?? note the drop from 700k+ for tests down to 50-60k for Super Rugby games.

Yes, but there is international interest in this competition and with that comes enough money to make it run at a reasonable level.

There seems to be an underlying assumption that RA should ditch Super Rugby even if the alternative of a domestic competition is financial suicide in the hope that more people would be interested.

People seem convinced that having games on FTA even if we're paying to make that happen would bring in a massive new fanbase.

RA needs to tread carefully but taking the position that they are crazy not to turn their back on NZRU and Super Rugby etc. because the suggestion being offered isn't perfect for them is pretty crazy in my view.

 

[barbarian]

What are Twiggy's plans though? Some on this thread are putting an awful amount of faith in a product that is yet to be even announced.

I am pro-Twiggy and think RA should be working with him, but I'm not ready to declare Twiggyball the future of the game until I see what it actually is.......
.

 

[sunnyboys]

on the $$$... Super Rugby will send oz rugby broke eventually. with crowd and viewer numbers being what they are, revenue from game days and merch sales will be in free fall - that impacts the state unions - Reds have been broke before and the same conditions are in place for them to go broke again - and i would think other teams are barely holding it together. RA will need to pick up that tab. There is no way that a continuation of Super Rugby will get an increase in broadcast dollars. the next deal would be the same a last AT BEST - and probably backwards in real terms. however going backwards in nominal and real terms and is a strong possibility.

Comps that bleed fans and viewers eventually bleed money. its coming.

 

[Dan54]

Having now read Wayne Smiths Article "Super Solutions to resist change" in the Australian it confirmed we are a million miles away from NZ in terms of what they want out of Super Rugby vs what Australia needs out of it.

NZ wants round robin format so that all their top NZ sides don't have to play a lower Super Rugby side in quarter finals. .

You don't really believe that do you RN? I can tell you the reason NZ are keen on a round robin is because the players are saying it to hard to play the other NZ teams twice , look at the injuries as a point.
You know because Wayne Smith says it doesn't actually mean it true!!
You just have to listen to when players are interviewed, you will get more idea than reading an article by Wayne Smith I woukld think.
I will add Super 12 was by far the best version of the comp, and lo and behold it was round robin!!

 

[hoggy]

on the $$$. Super Rugby will send oz rugby broke eventually. with crowd and viewer numbers being what they are, revenue from game days and merch sales will be in free fall - that impacts the state unions - Reds have been broke before and the same conditions are in place for them to go broke again - and i would think other teams are barely holding it together. RA will need to pick up that tab. There is no way that a continuation of Super Rugby will get an increase in broadcast dollars. the next deal would be the same a last AT BEST - and probably backwards in real terms. however going backwards in nominal and real terms and is a strong possibility.

Comps that bleed fans and viewers eventually bleed money. its coming.

An issue with Super rugby has been that the competition itself has not grown in value, often those extra broadcast $ have come from simply adding more & more content, Super 12 may have been able to work around the structural issues, but at the time it was all Expand or Die.

Without competing interests the RA just find themselves forever backed into a corner, those grassroots funds will never eventuate as you will never be able to release funds.

If the broadcast deal remains the same as 2015, you are effectively taking a 20% pay-cut, any less well all of a sudden you are taking real hit, all they can do is reduce expenses.

Sort of what happens when you've sold the Kitchen sink.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

What are Twiggy's plans though? Some on this thread are putting an awful amount of faith in a product that is yet to be even announced.

I am pro-Twiggy and think RA should be working with him, but I'm not ready to declare Twiggyball the future of the game until I see what it actually is...
.

Yeh I am actually not convinced twiggy ball as go alone viable or best option but joint RA-twiggy ball co-ordination could be and put the power back in the hands of Australia to control its own destiny which it Cleary can’t with super rugby and SANZAAR. That is why I keep banging on about hope for RA and twiggy’s team to pool resources and work on better option together.


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[gel]

But what part of that is going to bring in new fans, moving the deckchairs achieves what?

The fact that our teams will be motivated to play better by a finals system that relies purely on merit.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

You don't really believe that do you RN? I can tell you the reason NZ are keen on a round robin is because the players are saying it to hard to play the other NZ teams twice , look at the injuries as a point.

You know because Wayne Smith says it doesn't actually mean it true!!

You just have to listen to when players are interviewed, you will get more idea than reading an article by Wayne Smith I woukld think.

I will add Super 12 was by far the best version of the comp, and lo and behold it was round robin!!

Thanks Dan54 - ok I can see broader reasons why NZ would want round robin but still not convinced serves oz interests from the fact a cross borders competition as it stands does not allow for equalisation of teams and uncertainty of outcome. AFL addresses imbalance by draft system where teams finishing lower get priority picks, Twiggy trying to address this for WSR via marquee player system and also trying to get those oz players who play for any WSR team eligible for Wallabies. Point being we need a system to make for better equalisation of talent across teams across borders for Super Rugby to work imho. And yes Super 12 was successful but I doubt it would be now as people have moved on from that in oz and really want to be able follow teams playing in time zone friendly formats, but also where uncertainty of outcome. When Super 12 was played oz rugby was stronger as was SA cf NZ teams, but to make such a competition sustainable we need a situation where you can address such imbalances as kills interest in the game and in particular in oz where strong rival domestic football codes of NRL, AFL and Soccer that are domestic based and hence don't have the same problems of cross border politics and has the tools to provide for equalisation of talent etc.

Super Rugby is good for NZ but doomed for Oz as different market with highly competitive rival domestic based football codes and hence oz interests clearly not aligned with NZ interests. Super Rugby as it stands is dead and round robin format will do nothing for oz as that is not the issue for oz teams to address increasing disinterest in Super Rugby.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

The fact that our teams will be motivated to play better by a finals system that relies purely on merit.

Motivated vs just can't match NZ team standards are two different things.

 

[stoff]

You don't really believe that do you RN? I can tell you the reason NZ are keen on a round robin is because the players are saying it to hard to play the other NZ teams twice , look at the injuries as a point.
You know because Wayne Smith says it doesn't actually mean it true!!
You just have to listen to when players are interviewed, you will get more idea than reading an article by Wayne Smith I woukld think.
I will add Super 12 was by far the best version of the comp, and lo and behold it was round robin!!

Given the respective depth and level of both countries at the moment, the quickest way to ensure more kiwi derbies is to swap to a round robin for a year or two before the game goes completely bust here.


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[zer0]

.....we need a situation where you can address such imbalances as kills interest in the game and in particular in oz where strong rival domestic football codes of NRL, AFL and Soccer that are domestic based and hence don't have the same problems of cross border politics and has the tools to provide for equalisation of talent etc.

Super Rugby is good for NZ but doomed for Oz as different market with highly competitive rival domestic based football codes and hence oz interests clearly not aligned with NZ interests.

Should this not be the concern of Australia's domestic competition? Play Super Rugby in the S12/14 era sprint at the start of the season, then everyone goes to their own respective domestic competitions that they have full control over. If Australia wants to run a 20+ week competition with a draft, timed scrums, 9 point tries, flashing lights and what-have-you, then go for it. Might even package it up with the NPC and Currie Cup for a broadcasting deal (or not, IDK).

This is how it worked/works for NZ and SA and seems like what JO'N should've done a decade ago, instead of trying to do it on the cheap via Super Rugby.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Should this not be the concern of Australia's domestic competition? Play Super Rugby in the S12/14 era sprint at the start of the season, then everyone goes to their own respective domestic competitions that they have full control over. If Australia wants to run a 20+ week competition with a draft, timed scrums, 9 point tries, flashing lights and what-have-you, then go for it. Might even package it up with the NPC and Currie Cup for a broadcasting deal (or not, IDK).



This is how it worked/works for NZ and SA and seems like what JO'N should've done a decade ago, instead of trying to do it on the cheap via Super Rugby.

To establish a domestic comp takes money - RA have none and when they did have money for something like this post 2003 lions tour is when they should done this - but now the only way they could do this is to hitch themselves to twiggy....but I see no evidence of ongoing dialogue between Twiggy and RA so this does not appear to be happening.....

 

[Dan54]

The main thing that worries me with all the talk of not wanting to be in Super rugby because NZ teams are stronger is you are wanting to start rugby's version of the A league where the Aussie comp is an inferior comp and so only produces inferior international team.I would guess within 2 WCs of Wallaby team coming from such a comp , we would all be moaning as Wallabies struggle to get out of pool stages of WC, as the Socceroos have. I seriously doubt whether that is going to help the game here. I don't actually believe that soccer is as strong here as many seem to think, it is a game supported mainly be expats.

 

[Braveheart81]

Soccer is also a different kettle of fish internationally because every major team is used to their players playing in international leagues around the world and only gathering in international windows.

That is not the norm for the tier 1 countries in rugby so if we did start doing that we would be putting ourselves at a major disadvantage.

 

[sunnyboys]

on Super Rugby vs Domestic comp.

There is only one window of opportunity to start your 'drawcard' comp in Oz. and that is Feb/march. this is because of our national sports rhythm. starting a comp in August will never allow it to be successful. any comp played in that time slot is destined to be unsupported. we dont have the history of the NPC and Currie Cup to provide momentum to a comp starting when everyone else in the country is ending.

NRC will never be more than a development comp whilst played in Sept and Oct.

Feb to July is it. especially from 2020 onwards. that is the one we need to get right. Super Rugby has had the prime slot and has done nothing but lose fans. I'm not sure what more evidence people are waiting for...

Playing kiwi teams is meant to make us better.... guess what folks? this year could be the 16th year of not holding the Bled! how has playing kiwi teams made us better???? yet we continue on like halfwits banging our heads against the same wall. Ireland didnt pley kiwi teams all the time to get to #2. its a nonsense argument.

and all the while our crowds and viewers dwindle. our competing codes swallow up the talent.

maybe we could run up the white flag like football and start playing in summer!

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Well "IF" Twiggy can make some success with WSR in 2019 and RA agree to a super rugby model that does little more than offer a round robin format you can bet there will be a queue of oz Super Rugby sides wanting to join Twiggy ball - especially if they get Japanese and Fiji side. So I seriously hope Twiggy Ball can be successful to present another option but given we don't know much about what it will look like and sides involved this is a big unknown at this point as launching a new competition is no easy feat especially when will only involve 1 oz side (at least initially).

 

[half]

. I don't actually believe that soccer is as strong here as many seem to think, it is a game supported mainly be expats.

You base this on what, how you feel.

I am so so so so so so so so over rugby folk who brush off what others are doing.

 

[kiap]

you are wanting to start rugby's version of the A league where the Aussie comp is an inferior comp and so only produces inferior international team.

That thought process doesn't work. The Socceroos weren't making it to the World Cup before the A-League was started.

The Supe is a constricted bowel. Every season it goes on, the more and more shit builds up and compacts. It will waste away what's left of the game's financial base and is twisting the life out of Australian rugby.

The sooner Super Rugby is scrapped (or just goes bust and dies of its own accord) the better.