Where to for Super Rugby?

[Inside Shoulder]

Whilst I hate this decision to cut a team, it baffles me why the Brumbies have been excluded from the discussion.. All teams should realistically be on the chopping block including Reds and Tahs.

Each team should be asssesed through a combination of economic feasibility, opportunity cost and ability and willingness for cultural reform. It's fair to say that NSW and QLD would be retained purely on opportunity costs for Rugby Union pathways and the economic costs to the broadcasters, but it should still be examined case by case.

How did the ARU come to the decision that it was purely between the Force and Rebels, why were no other options considered?

Its a noble thought but how would such willingness even enter the ARU's head as a criteria for anything?

 

[Rugbynutter39]

The joke about all this 'Brumbies are safe (but for hidden and mysterious reasons)' ARU policy is in part that, staying alone, you see as plain as the nose on your face that the ACTRU's dark clouds already circling overhead will worsen and further required material ARU cash bail-outs are likely for this RU (I'd estimate) in the late 2018/2019 period:

- their team performance trends are worsening

- their crowds are falling, and materially so

- their sponsorship levels and 'security' are inevitably becoming more fragile

- the 'past glory days' and relating bragging are now highly diluted in fan attraction and just in terms of real-world current attainments

- they occupy an intrinsically small market that league and soccer continue to build in

- if ASIC deem to prosecute the company, current or ex-directors the costs and distractions and bad PR will be very significant and the ACT police would not have referred to ASIC under corporate law requirements if there were no legally credible issues to consider

- they have an unambiguously awful recent history of very poor board governance and, remarkably, the Chairman who sat over a lot of this looks like being re-appointed

I keep saying it: the 'culling of one' Super team saga is just in truth a side diversion from the real issue: the likely other remaining four are all showing the warning signs of serious commercial and financial crises ahead and, this is the novel and really troubling never-occurred-before-in-Aus-rugby-history part, the negative trajectories of the four are all building in parallel potentially yielding up the mother of all aggregated crises for our highly regarded ARU.

Yep as super rugby is doomed in.current format and whether 5 teams won't really change where we are heading. Aru have so much collateral damage I doubt they would be brave or confident enough to pursue with a plan b and just keep going with plan a despite its failings and continual inevitable decline.

I think rock bottom still has some way to go....

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk

 

[RedsHappy]

Its a noble thought but how would such willingness even enter the ARU's head as a criteria for anything?

Especially as their own 'ability and willingness for cultural reform' of, in the first instance, themselves, has been zero.

 

[No4918]

Everyone seems to forget that this is only for the next, 3 years and then conceivably a 5th team could be added back.

This is the deal that needs to be done with both Sanzaar and the franchise. (a temporary cut only)

I think the return of a fifth franchise in Australia is extremely unlikely. Without a serious turnaround in the fortunes of the competition as a whole, it appears that SANZAAR are going to be very cautious in the future. A SARU board member has even suggested the competition was at its best with 12 teams. Whether you agree or not with cutting a team, the action to remove 3 sides mid-cycle is drastic. Short of the breakup of Super Rugby to form a trans-Tasman or Aus going it alone with there own competition I think a fifth side again in this country is unlikley. Not saying I agree with the decision to cut an Aus team though and keep the Sunwolves.

Going it alone may be an option but would anyone trust the ARU to handle it. Without serious reform of the code from the top down it would be a massive gamble. I don't think that is likely in the short term, no matter how bad things get the people in charge and failing have to much self interest. I'll stick with SANZAAR over putting any faith in the St Leonards mob.

 

[The Honey Badger]

I think the return of a fifth franchise in Australia is extremely unlikely. Without a serious turnaround in the fortunes of the competition as a whole, it appears that SANZAAR are going to be very cautious in the future. A SARU board member has even suggested the competition was at its best with 12 teams. Whether you agree or not with cutting a team, the action to remove 3 sides mid-cycle is drastic. Short of the breakup of Super Rugby to form a trans-Tasman or Aus going it alone with there own competition I think a fifth side again in this country is unlikley. Not saying I agree with the decision to cut an Aus team though and keep the Sunwolves.

Going it alone may be an option but would anyone trust the ARU to handle it. Without serious reform of the code from the top down it would be a massive gamble. I don't think that is likely in the short term, no matter how bad things get the people in charge and failing have to much self interest. I'll stick with SANZAAR over putting any faith in the St Leonards mob.

You think the Sun Wolves will remain long term?

 

[No4918]

You think the Sun Wolves will remain long term?

Prob not. The decision to keep them over an Aus side is from reports due to pushing from NZRU. I don't agree with it. There goal apparently is to increase competitiveness and the quality of the competition yet keep a side that has been less competitive than one of the two to be chopped. Those situations usually come down to money.

But when the Sunwolves are cut. I still don't think Aus will immediately go back to a fifth team.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^^^^^^^^ it really should've happened from day one, or at least from this year, but once the Top League dates get pushed back & more Japan Internationals sign for them* the Sunwolves will be far more competitive than they currently are.

*Japan captain Michael Leitch intends to sign for them from 2019 & possibly earlier depending on what form Super Rugby takes in 2018 & how/ if he figures in Jamie Joseph's RWC planning:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...to-play-super-rugby-for-the-sunwolves-in-2019

I suspect that where the captain leads, others will follow.

 

[half]

Just back or late Sunday from 3 weeks in the US on business and was away for all the decisions when they were made and have posted a couple of youtubes since I have been back and some rating stuff.

I have forced myself to consider the call made by the ARU and my reaction.

I acknowledge the call, made by the ARU, astonished at the result, sadden is way too polite, I am bewildered at the call.

For me it’s the final straw, I have been arguing about ARU incompetence for at least 30 years. So many issues from management of local district park teams to the mid 90’s destruction of our traditions for a media company, Mac Bank stadium [Concord Oval] the list is long.

There comes a point when you have to say, they won’t listen, everything is short term thinking to calm the beast that is subscription TV.

I am speechless and overwhelmed but not surprised at such a dumbfounded decision.

This decision is incredulous and is made essentially to solve short term subscription ratings.

I place no blame on the media broadcasters, the ARU has had so long to fix this and wasted so many opportunities its beyond sad, its IMO negligent. Those in charge never sort to change our structure, and develop a national competition with all stakeholders included in the discussion.

Australia today is a super competitive sports market, with other codes aside from Rugby all talking expansion of their National Domestic Competitions. The ARU have sat by and watched as league and AFL rebuilt after the mid 90’s. Sat by and watched the A-League grow, sat by as cricket developed its BBL with both male and female teams, watched as the W-League in soccer, Netball, AFL women’s, Basketball rebuild both male and female, the Tour down Under, V8’s etc.

I am now lost to the game will more than likely make this my last post. I will go along to Woy Woy oval and watch some games but that’s it for me.

I will join the many others who over the last 60 years have moved to other codes. Given the wife and her playing of soccer, it’s were I will probably finish up.

Bye all for the foreseeable future and the best of luck with your rugby desires.

In closing good luck with getting a new body off the ground, you need a Frank Lowy or similar, maybe Alan Jones has the interest of the game at heart and has arguably the ability to set up a new group. But you will need a well know leader.

Again good luck.

 

[Dan54]

Yep I think the Sunwolves are going to be a permanent part of Super rugby however it pans out, whether we end up ever going back to 5 Aus teams in foreseeable future is doubtful, unless the comp has 2 divisions I think. I unfortunately believe it will take a good 5 years at the very least to get the required numbers for player depth. I really think super will expand in Asia or the Americas beforehand, if only for TV money.

 

[KOB1987]

See you half, I hope the weather is fairer wherever you end up. Moreso I hope we see you back here one day, it means things have improved.

 

[Killer]

messed that up, here is what I said

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The ARU is finding it more and more difficult to cut the WF with the amount of support they are garnering amongst rugby people and the media.​

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This is clearly a prob because in the 4 team scenario Foxtel would prefer the WF are culled and not the Rebs.​

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The probable outcome/compromise here IOT keep the Rebs, is the Rebs/ Brumbies merger(another word for in effect culling the Brumbies)​

​

This too will be difficult due to some ARU Management and Board support for the Brumbies (tho it seems not much public or media support) but is imo becoming their only real option?​

​

Basically it is now whether Foxtel will accept this compromise?​

there is also the little matter of legal contracts held by both the Rebs and the WF.
The ARU are probably trying to give a perception that they are protecting the Brumbies when in reality they know it can't happen if they don't want everyone trawling through their dirty laundry and maybe Foxtel's as well? They don't even have the confidence to make any kind of statement for fear of being rebuffed as it is.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

*Japan captain Michael Leitch intends to sign for them from 2019 & possibly earlier depending on what form Super Rugby takes in 2018 & how/ if he figures in Jamie Joseph's RWC planning:

Funny name for a japanese person.
A cynic might think the sunwolves are merely a 7th super team for NZ

there is also the little matter of legal contracts held by both the Rebs and the WF.

The ARU are probably trying to give a perception that they are protecting the Brumbies when in reality they know it can't happen if they don't want everyone trawling through their dirty laundry and maybe Foxtel's as well? They don't even have the confidence to make any kind of statement for fear of being rebuffed as it is.

The ARU are estopped by prior conduct and representations from cutting, culling or otherwise merging the Brumbies- you guys need to factor that into your world view

 

[Omar Comin']

Funny name for a japanese person.
A cynic might think the sunwolves are merely a 7th super team for NZ

Leitch moved to Japan when he was 15, speaks the language fluently and is a Japanese citizen.

 

[dru]

See you half, I hope the weather is fairer wherever you end up. Moreso I hope we see you back here one day, it means things have improved.

Can only agree. Very sad Half, you'll be missed.

 

[Brumby Runner]

TOCC,

Money talks, and given that big money comes from the broadcasters, maybe, just maybe, they had a say in that part of the process?

 

[wamberal]

TOCC,

Money talks, and given that big money comes from the broadcasters, maybe, just maybe, they had a say in that part of the process?

Wash your mouth out!!!! Money?????

 

[RedsHappy]

..........

I have forced myself to consider the call made by the ARU and my reaction.
.......
For me it’s the final straw, I have been arguing about ARU incompetence for at least 30 years.

Again good luck.

Hell mate, arguing re that for 30 years would be enough to kill any man or beast! There has been so much of it to go around.

'What doesn't kill you makes you stronger'; I guess that phrase is apposite today.

half, I'd just like to say:

- many of your pieces here really inspired and moved me

- your sincerity and passion for this great code always shone through

- you had the guts and the admirable fortitude to stand up for your beliefs and even more so stand up to those in power and supposed prestige that you could see were not fulfilling properly for the Australian rugby community what they were entrusted to fulfil

- you always strove to see how rugby could be made better, much better, in Australia

For all of that, I for one salute you as I am sure will many others here.

Your 'goodbye' today is in many ways a sad thing, but more so it is a marker of the depths of disillusionment that has befallen so many Australian rugby fans in recent years.

And so many never put pen to paper to tell us, they just go, maybe, often, forever.

 

[I like to watch]

.......The ARU are estopped by prior conduct and representations from cutting, culling or otherwise merging the Brumbies- you guys need to factor that into your world view [/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]

Talk about painting yourself into a corner.
Who haven't they guaranteed a spot in the comp?
I bet a Billy P is kicking himself.
When you nitpick with legal niceties, you have to understand how the option you are taking differs to the standard option.
Having WF on their balance sheet with total control, looks like the smarter option now

 

[Killer]

Funny name for a japanese person.
A cynic might think the sunwolves are merely a 7th super team for NZ


The ARU are estopped by prior conduct and representations from cutting, culling or otherwise merging the Brumbies- you guys need to factor that into your world view

I am all for keeping the 5 teams, but it seems due to the incompetent buffoons at the ARU one has to go.
It seems to be that the Rebs & the WF have signed contracts guaranteeing their position in super rugby until at least 2020.
It seems that all the Brumbies have are unenforceable promises from the ARU. I'm sure the WF & the Rebs from experience will tell you that they, the ARU, are an unreliable self serving ally at best.
Therefore when it comes to the crunch they will be protecting themselves. That means, imo, not allowing any dirty deals to be exposed in a court case which seems to only be an option to the WF and the Rebs.
Unfortunately this leaves the Brumbies exposed.
I personally think all teams should band together and ask/tell the ARU to re think the super options with SANZAR to allow five teams from Aus and then they should sack themselves.

 

[Blue]

ARU have spoken. Brumbies are safe - no cut or merger.

They really are incredibly bloody stupid in the way they are handling this.