Where to for Super Rugby?

[KOB1987]

Just because the Brumbies are 'safe' doesn't mean the merger is off the table. It could just be a backdoor arrangement whereby Cox becomes a part owner of the Brumbies, which gives them both some working capital and management expertise.

From Wayne Smith this morning:

“We’re interested in anything that will help grow the game, settle this mess and ensure the viability of the Melbourne licence.”
With that quote, Melbourne Rebels owner Andrew Cox gave his clearest indication yet he is prepared to consider a Rebels-Brumbies merger as a means of finally resolving the Australian Rugby Union’s dilemma of which of its five Super Rugby teams to cut before next season.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/spo...r/news-story/bf1fca0f9be63e6a977d28a12b5333a6

 

[Brumby Jack]

Whilst Cox might be open to the idea, it also would require the Brumbies to agree to it and I can't see them doing that anytime soon.

It's starting to sound like Cox bought something without due dilligence.

 

[blues recovery]

Whilst Cox might be open to the idea, it also would require the Brumbies to agree to it and I can't see them doing that anytime soon.

It's starting to sound like Cox bought something without due dilligence.

Yeah like and by the way just letting you know at anytime of our choice we can cut you from our little party
That bit he clearly missed in his due diligence discovery

 

[stoff]

Whilst Cox might be open to the idea, it also would require the Brumbies to agree to it and I can't see them doing that anytime soon.

It's starting to sound like Cox bought something without due dilligence.

How are the licences set up for the Brumbies, Reds and Tahs? Are there contracts in place guaranteeing them participation?

On Cox, I think he is smart enough to know he was never going to make money out of a rugby team, despite public assertions to the contrary. I think he has also been smart enough to maximise his loss mitigation by milking as much as he can out of the ARU, and he continues to do so.


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[Slim 293]

Just because the Brumbies are 'safe' doesn't mean the merger is off the table. It could just be a backdoor arrangement whereby Cox becomes a part owner of the Brumbies, which gives them both some working capital and management expertise.

From Wayne Smith this morning:

You're one day and several pages late on that...........

The ARU and Brumbies have already quashed the idea.

 

[Slim 293]

Also, that must be Wayne Smith's fourth article in a week on the subject............

Dog's got a bone.

 

[I like to watch]

They can't sack the Brumbies because they told them they wouldn't and they altered their position as a result.
Next.

Verbal assurances trump written undertakings...
It can only end in tears, for ARU

 

[KOB1987]

You're one day and several pages late on that.....

The ARU and Brumbies have already quashed the idea.

Take that with a grain of salt!

Have you heard the saying 'where there's smoke there's fire'? There's a reason he keeps banging on about it.

 

[Slim 293]

Take that with a grain of salt!

Have you heard the saying 'where there's smoke there's fire'? There's a reason he keeps banging on about it.

What smoke?

Wayne Smith is the only journo pushing this idea.

 

[RedsHappy]

Verbal assurances trump written undertakings.
It can only end in tears, for ARU

The joke about all this 'Brumbies are safe (but for hidden and mysterious reasons)' ARU policy is in part that, staying alone, you see as plain as the nose on your face that the ACTRU's dark clouds already circling overhead will worsen and further required material ARU cash bail-outs are likely for this RU (I'd estimate) in the late 2018/2019 period:

- their team performance trends are worsening

- their crowds are falling, and materially so

- their sponsorship levels and 'security' are inevitably becoming more fragile

- the 'past glory days' and relating bragging are now highly diluted in fan attraction and just in terms of real-world current attainments

- they occupy an intrinsically small market that league and soccer continue to build in

- if ASIC deem to prosecute the company, current or ex-directors the costs and distractions and bad PR will be very significant and the ACT police would not have referred to ASIC under corporate law requirements if there were no legally credible issues to consider

- they have an unambiguously awful recent history of very poor board governance and, remarkably, the Chairman who sat over a lot of this looks like being re-appointed

I keep saying it: the 'culling of one' Super team saga is just in truth a side diversion from the real issue: the likely other remaining four are all showing the warning signs of serious commercial and financial crises ahead and, this is the novel and really troubling never-occurred-before-in-Aus-rugby-history part, the negative trajectories of the four are all building in parallel potentially yielding up the mother of all aggregated crises for our highly regarded ARU.

 

[Brumby Runner]

What smoke?

Wayne Smith is the only journo pushing this idea.

And just not sure exactly what he's been smoking.

 

[RedsHappy]

How are the licences set up for the Brumbies, Reds and Tahs? Are there contracts in place guaranteeing them participation?

On Cox, I think he is smart enough to know he was never going to make money out of a rugby team, despite public assertions to the contrary. I think he has also been smart enough to maximise his loss mitigation by milking as much as he can out of the ARU, and he continues to do so.
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My own view FWIW is that Cox's biggest want-to-get out of this whole culling process is bigger and longer term cash subsidies from the ARU.

For sure the 2017 Rebels are not performing to his 2015 business and financial plan for them. I'd strongly suspect he knows that to keep the Rebels solvent for the next 2-3 years he has to either invest more cash himself or, much more palatably, persuade the ARU to do so (above its material existing cash subsidy levels ongoing).

I think in part the notable clue somewhat validating this assessment was when in his last heavy press release Cox stated firmly a view that 'a lot of the $6m saving from culling a club should go directly back the existing franchises'.

I suspect something like this scenario will emerge when the Force are being finally culled:

'Bill, Coxey here. I will not pursue what my lawyers advise me in an excellent case for $Xm damages against the ARU, and now that the ARU has endorsed its support for the Rebels as one of the surviving four, then in exchange the ARU must provide the Rebels $Xm pa and for X additional years over current arrangements in place. This can be afforded from the savings from the Force cull. If this is not forthcoming, I simply may have to consider closing the Rebels down and this would be catastrophic for the ARU as all those media deals' income to you would have to come down by a big % with only 3 Super teams here. So Bill, take the deal I'm offering you now mate'.

 

[wamberal]

Gee we are small beer. The NRL and AFL talk in tens and hundreds of millions. We talk in nickels and dimes.

 

[Killer]

The joke about all this 'Brumbies are safe (but for hidden and mysterious reasons)' ARU policy is in part that, staying alone, you see as plain as the nose on your face that the ACTRU's dark clouds already circling overhead will worsen and further required material ARU cash bail-outs are likely for this RU (I'd estimate) in the late 2018/2019 period:

The ARU is finding it more and more difficult to cut the WF with the amount of support they are garnering amongst rugby people and the media.

This is clearly a prob because in the 4 team scenario Foxtel would prefer the WF are culled and not the Rebs.

The probable outcome/compromise here IOT keep the Rebs, is the Rebs/ Brumbies merger(another word for in effect culling the Brumbies)

This too will be difficult due to some ARU Management and Board support for the Brumbies (tho it seems not much public or media support) but is imo becoming their only real option?

Basically it is now whether Foxtel will accept this compromise?

 

[Killer]

messed that up, here is what I said

The ARU is finding it more and more difficult to cut the WF with the amount of support they are garnering amongst rugby people and the media.

This is clearly a prob because in the 4 team scenario Foxtel would prefer the WF are culled and not the Rebs.

The probable outcome/compromise here IOT keep the Rebs, is the Rebs/ Brumbies merger(another word for in effect culling the Brumbies)

This too will be difficult due to some ARU Management and Board support for the Brumbies (tho it seems not much public or media support) but is imo becoming their only real option?

Basically it is now whether Foxtel will accept this compromise?​

​

 

[RedsHappy]

Whilst Cox might be open to the idea, it also would require the Brumbies to agree to it and I can't see them doing that anytime soon.

It's starting to sound like Cox bought something without due dilligence.

Which just goes to show how corporately egotistical, strategically foolish and out of touch with reality they are.

In the medium-term, the ACTRU/Brumbies is actually the most exposed and financially and commercially vulnerable of all the RU franchisees.

They'd be very wise to at least give serious consideration to a part-relocation and merger designed to drive down integrated costs per $ of income earned and drive up their security and sustainability of that income.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Which just goes to show how corporately egotistical, strategically foolish and out of touch with reality they are.

In the medium-term, the ACTRU/Brumbies is actually the most exposed and financially and commercially vulnerable of all the RU franchisees.

They'd be very wise to at least give serious consideration to a part-relocation and merger designed to drive down integrated costs per $ of income earned and drive up their security and sustainability of that income.

and when it becomes infected with the Sydney and Brisbane private school/GPS ethos of self-satisfaction the whole country will be worse off.
The Reds, Tahs and Rebels have all proved they could not organise a fuck in a brothel

 

[RedsHappy]

Australian rugby 2017-version:

Every bastard thinks they're better than they really are, and every bastard puts their hate of some other bastard ahead of figuring out how to properly save themselves, in partnership or otherwise.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Australian rugby 2017-version:

Every bastard thinks they're better than they really are, and every bastard puts their hate of some other bastard ahead of figuring out how to properly save themselves, in partnership or otherwise.

fixed

 

[TOCC]

Which just goes to show how corporately egotistical, strategically foolish and out of touch with reality they are.

In the medium-term, the ACTRU/Brumbies is actually the most exposed and financially and commercially vulnerable of all the RU franchisees.

They'd be very wise to at least give serious consideration to a part-relocation and merger designed to drive down integrated costs per $ of income earned and drive up their security and sustainability of that income.

Whilst I hate this decision to cut a team, it baffles me why the Brumbies have been excluded from the discussion.. All teams should realistically be on the chopping block including Reds and Tahs.

Each team should be asssesed through a combination of economic feasibility, opportunity cost and ability and willingness for cultural reform. It's fair to say that NSW and QLD would be retained purely on opportunity costs for Rugby Union pathways and the economic costs to the broadcasters, but it should still be examined case by case.

How did the ARU come to the decision that it was purely between the Force and Rebels, why were no other options considered?