Where to for Super Rugby?

[RedsHappy]

Some interesting inputs today from Payto & Pando (extracted) in News Corp online sources (my emphasis):

"THE Western Force are growing more confident of remaining in Super Rugby after advice from lawyers, and will likely meet the ARU next week to present their case.​

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However, the fact remains that if Melbourne Rebels owner Andrew Cox refuses to sell his licence, legally the ARU cannot remove them, leaving the Force as the only option.​

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What the Force are banking on is a backflip from SANZAAR on the 15-team competition, to restore it to the 18 teams it has now.​

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Perth officials believe they can exhaust enough money and time through legal avenues that the ARU will cave on their decision to remove a team, and they believe their South African counterparts in similar situations will do the same.​

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But remaining with 18 teams and the same format, identified as financially suicidal by SANZAAR, would kill much of the already dwindling interest in Super Rugby now it has become clear that officials think it is second rate."​

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Could any of these developments become any more bizarre and quite extraordinary in the context Super rugby faces in business and fan adherence terms?

The ARU was going to wrap all this up in a mere 3 days from when the culling announcement was made. They obviously thought it would all be 'a simple matter'.

Perhaps they lost the files wherein was to be found the Force-ARU Alliance Agreement and Cox's licensing agreement? Mistakes do happen after all, even in the best run organisations.

If the above media assessment is true, I find it truly staggering that:

(i) the ARU could sign a binding agreement with RugbyWA in August 2016 that, inter alia, would guarantee the Force's existence through 2020 and then, just 8 months later, decide the Force could be culled from Super rugby forthwith and thus give no consideration to the nature of that binding agreement, and​

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(ii) the ARU would seemingly grant a full rugby playing rights license to a party in a major State that permits that party to retain that license solely at its own discretion and without relation to, e.g., team performance KPIs, commercial KPIs such as crowd sizes, sponsorship revenue etc, financial conditions, and such like. What now seems to be the case is that no such conditions exist in this licensing agreement and that Cox can retain the VIC rugby license at his own whim with no formal recourse to any of Rebels' team or business or such like outcomes that would in principle protect the ARU's interests if the licensee (Cox) did not perform to expectations. This all despite the fact that the ARU was/is itself providing Cox large, multi-year cash subsidies to prop up the Rebels' financial losses.​

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If (ii) is in fact like that, in all my global deals with multiple licenses and license rights agreements, I have never seen a rights license agreement as dangerously one-sided and thus highly problematic (for the ARU) as this one involving the ARU and Cox appears to be, and Cox is clearly telling the media etc that this is in fact the way it is and, short of him selling his license, the ARU will have to lump the startlingly one-sided terms they have agreed to.

 

[blues recovery]

I think Hoiles made an interesting point on a Fox show

A decent Melbourne side will not be really noticed (the Storm have been one of the best NRL teams consistently over the last 10 years and no one care in Melbourne and they are still propped up by Murdoch
Now which would be better in the medium to long term?

You're completely incorrect as is The muppet Hoiles
The Storm have very strong traction in what is a busy sporting market . Crowds are now better than most Sydney teams . And they wee sold by News about three years ago to a private owner who is doing very nicely thank you .
Typical of the absolute nonsense being spread by pretty much all parties in this farce

 

[barbarian]

That's a bit much BR.

The Storm have put together a legendary team (albeit illegally) and had a decade of incredible success, head and shoulders above any other NRL side.

And yet they are only drawing 10-15k a match. Where Collingwood games regularly hit 70k+ and they are rubbish.

Comparisons to Sydney teams are fraught because there are 9 of them, all competing for the same market. Only one team in Melbourne.

It just shows the potential success for the Rebels is capped. They aren't going to be hitting Reds-esque 40-50k crowds, or even Tahs-esque 20k+ crowds.
.

 

[Braveheart81]

I found this interesting.

 

[I like to watch]

Interesting, but I believe there's a time lag with attendances.
I'm pretty sure attendances will be down this year, due to changes in structure introduced last year.
I know my viewing habits have changed this year, I'm much more discerning about which games I watch, previously I would pretty much watch any game that was televised.
Not the case this year.

 

[blues recovery]

Come on really
Now you're drawing a comparison to Collingwood !!
Better to draw a direct comparison between Storm crows and Waratah crowds .
Both one team in a city although Waratahs are supposedly in Rugby heartland compared to Storm supposedly unknown .
Melbourne people will support professional Rugby if the team is successful , promotes itself strongly and engages well in what is a very strong local Rugby community .
Crowds and supporter engagement in the early years showed this
28k vs Tahs
18k vs Highlanders
18k vs Crusaders
Fundamental issue is the lack of performance on the pitch and the revolving management door has lead to disengagement of the Rugby base .
Hell even the Rebel Army disbanded .
Can tell you if the club can put together a team capable of threatening for finals football the team should be able to attract an average crowd of around the 15k
mark and at that number the club starts to look financially stable given the reduced cost structure the current owners have in place .

 

[dru]

It just shows the potential success for the Rebels is capped. They aren't going to be hitting Reds-esque 40-50k crowds, or even Tahs-esque 20k+ crowds.

Why not?

South Africa is pretty much at commercial saturation. There may be plenty of opportunity to grow the game numbers through transformation, but generally those areas have little to offer in terms of financial viability. South Africa is largely commercially saturated.

New Zealand is also commercially saturated - due to their phenomenal success. But short of population growth, there is little rugby growth opportunity. maintaining their incredible performance would be a notable achievement.

Australia is a complex and highly competitive market. A tough market. But to target for instance, a doubling of fans is possible. Tough, but possible. Even in NSW and Qld, but much more likely in Perth and Melbourne.

A doubling of fan attendance at the Rebels would impact AFL attendance by diddle-squat. It's a tough market to crack, but a potentially lucrative one.

 

[Braveheart81]

Interesting, but I believe there's a time lag with attendances.
I'm pretty sure attendances will be down this year, due to changes in structure introduced last year.
I know my viewing habits have changed this year, I'm much more discerning about which games I watch, previously I would pretty much watch any game that was televised.
Not the case this year.

I agree. There is no doubt a drop in 2017 again and something needs to change.

I hope we somehow end up backflipping on dropping teams and run with one year of 3x6 with H&A against your conference and 3 each against the other two conferences (for one more round than in 2017). Otherwise 8 games against your own conference and 4 each against the other conferences.

 

[No4918]

I agree. There is no doubt a drop in 2017 again and something needs to change.

I hope we somehow end up backflipping on dropping teams and run with one year of 3x6 with H&A against your conference and 3 each against the other two conferences (for one more round than in 2017). Otherwise 8 games against your own conference and 4 each against the other conferences.

Surely it is too late for that now? They would need to go back to SANZAAR and the broadcasters, its a couple of months at least.

In the mean time are we left with sides unable to sign players? Most will take a certain pay packet and sign overseas than risk hanging around.

But I suspect you know that a backflip is virtually no chance of occurring.

 

[Braveheart81]

Surely it is too late for that now? They would need to go back to SANZAAR and the broadcasters, its a couple of months at least.

In the mean time are we left with sides unable to sign players? Most will take a certain pay packet and sign overseas than risk hanging around.

But I suspect you know that a backflip is virtually no chance of occurring.

Yes, I definitely agree that a backflip to remain at 18 teams is extremely unlikely at this point.

Certainly some progress needs to be made soon towards whatever is happening next year. As has been said by many, uncertainty over signing players needs to end so we don't lose players unnecessarily overseas.

 

[Slim 293]

That's a bit much BR.

The Storm have put together a legendary team (albeit illegally) and had a decade of incredible success, head and shoulders above any other NRL side.

And yet they are only drawing 10-15k a match. Where Collingwood games regularly hit 70k+ and they are rubbish.

Comparisons to Sydney teams are fraught because there are 9 of them, all competing for the same market. Only one team in Melbourne.

It just shows the potential success for the Rebels is capped. They aren't going to be hitting Reds-esque 40-50k crowds, or even Tahs-esque 20k+ crowds.
.

To be fair, the Storm had the third highest average attendances in the NRl last year.........

But unlike the Rebels they have a much stronger brand identity in Melbourne despite still being largely drowned out by the AFL and A League.

 

[Braveheart81]

The ARU is not the only sporting body in this country facing a revolt....

Australia's best netballers are threatening strike action this weekend, a Super Netball breakaway to form a rebel competition and a boycott of Diamonds games for the rest of the year unless the state associations re-elect threatened board member Kathryn Harby-Williams at Friday's Netball Australia annual general meeting.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/spo...boycott-over-boardroom-stoush-20170419-gvniwk

Well, the board member didn't get re-elected, so grab your popcorn.

Will be interesting to see if the players follow through with their threat.

 

[Omar Comin']

It just shows the potential success for the Rebels is capped. They aren't going to be hitting Reds-esque 40-50k crowds, or even Tahs-esque 20k+ crowds.

That doesn't really follow. None of us know what the Rebels crowds would be if they had a few successful seasons as it's never happened. There's no reason to assume their ceiling is the same as the Storm's.

One difference, for example, could be that there'd be thousands of existing rugby league fans in Melbourne who support other clubs and who would never switch to the Storm. On the other hand there's thousands of Kiwis, South Africans and British expats in Melbourne that may already like rugby and have casually adopted the Rebels as a new or 2nd team, or could do so, but wouldn't be motivated enough to support them regularly until they had some success.

 

[blues recovery]

To be fair, the Storm had the third highest average attendances in the NRl last year...

But unlike the Rebels they have a much stronger brand identity in Melbourne despite still being largely drowned out by the AFL and A League.

Agree completely but playing finals football pretty much every year since their inception might have a bit to do with it .
I've lived in Melbourne for six years now and outside of direct support for the Storm there is little or no League community here compared to a vibrant local Rugby community waiting for a team and club worthy of its support

 

[No4918]

Agree completely but playing finals football pretty much every year since their inception might have a bit to do with it .
I've lived in Melbourne for six years now and outside of direct support for the Storm there is little or no League community here compared to a vibrant local Rugby community waiting for a team and club worthy of its support

The bolded bit i take as a being a massive problem. A club worthy of its support? Really?

What a joke. I bet they were all lining up before the Rebels saying give us a club to support. Now they have to be worthy. What does that mean? Successful? Well guess what, most clubs are not successful. If they do have success, and the crowds fail to show up, will the goal posts be moved again?

The vibarant local Melbourne rugby community has had ample opportunity to support the club. They have failed to do so. Now its too late.

 

[daz]

Agree completely but playing finals football pretty much every year since their inception might have a bit to do with it .
I've lived in Melbourne for six years now and outside of direct support for the Storm there is little or no League community here compared to a vibrant local Rugby community waiting for a team and club worthy of its support

Absolutely. Melbourne likes winners, and the Storm did themselves no harm in winning the comp several times early in their startup.

The fact that it was done illegally had fuck all to do with it, and didn't harm the brand much at all; if anything, stripping the titles only increased the Vic v NSW rivalry, and as a result, Melbourne folded the hard done by Storm into their collective bosom - ergo, on-going and sustainable support was formed early, and formed hard.

Please don't compare Collingwood 70K turnout to watch a shit team, to the Storm's 15K and the Rebels 9-ishK average. In Melbourne, kids are tit fed milk the colour of the AFL team Mum and Dad support - they are the biggest game in town, and right now, they are rolling over the so-called rugby heartlands.

Rugby League does not have that same ingrained Melbourne support to any large degree, and if there is a local RL comp here equivalent to the Dewar Shield I have not heard about it.

Real Rugby in Melbourne has a thriving comp from kids to Dewar to Super Rugby, and a fan base that is largely untapped in the BIGGEST sporting market in Oz. What it doesn't have is any real PR penetration; I almost never see the Rebels in the paper, on tv, on billboards, on trams, on anything. The Rebels have an awesome social media presence but they are preaching to the fucking choir. The need to get out like a swarm of bee's and flood the town to those who may be interested in attending a Super Rugby game on an AFL off-day.

But to make it stick, the team needs to win a few more games than they do. I'm confident that when we get a few of the Force players at the end of this season, that will happen a bit more.

 

[Leo86]

^^^^ Vulture

Almost as bad as certain individuals gleefully rubbing their hands together at how this current travesty can self serve them.

I know your comment was tongue-in-cheek

Rugby is still going to have the problem of Europe enticing our players away. The only thing i see holding players here from a team that was axed is those who have contracts and the 2019 RWC. After of which, like always, mass exodus, same issues then as now. ARU being useless

 

[wamberal]

Interesting post, daz. Rugby has actually got quite a significant history in Victoria, in fact Victoria has beaten NSW (back in Weary Dunlop's day, but still....)


I lived and worked there many years ago, still remember going to the old Olympic Park to see the French touring team put the cleaners through Victoria. There were a few thousand present, from memory.


From a very small sample of people that I keep in touch with, I suspect that rugby is seen as more of a players' game than something to watch, either live or on the box.


Another way of putting it I guess is that the social aspects of the game are the biggest thing going for it. Melbourne is a class conscious society, rugby certainly ticks some useful boxes, not to mention its presence in the GPS system and presumably the universities.


I firmly believe that we need to use this rare comparative advantage to the max.

 

[daz]

^^^^ Vulture

Almost as bad as certain individuals gleefully rubbing their hands together at how this current travesty can self serve them.

I know your comment was tongue-in-cheek

Mate, I'm only laughing because if I don't, I'll be crying.

The pure reality is that all Force and Rebel fans are standing against the wall waiting for the rifles to fire.

We may as well have some fun with it before we go!

 

[Omar Comin']

Surely it is too late for that now? They would need to go back to SANZAAR and the broadcasters, its a couple of months at least.

Would it be that difficult to switch the Sunwolves with the 5th Australian team in the 15 team model? It'd be a pretty straight swap as they'd be in exactly the same conference and in pretty much the same time zone. And it would save some money in terms of travel.

This would be preferable to Fox Sports and you'd have to think at least neutral to the other broadcast partners, other than those in Japan, and I've never read anywhere that the broadcast deal in Japan is significant?