Waratahs 2013

[rugbyisfun]

See attached for your reading pleasure (had the day off, just watched the reply). I know this post is specific to a match, but I thought I would post in the Tahs thread for general comment about the style of play.
I wanted to have a simple look at the 'average amount of passing' the Tahs are executing (passing and offloading). By passes, I mean any passes by any player other than the halfback or person standing at halfback
No surprises. They really are an absolute disgrace.
112 phases attempted v the Cats with 49 passes and 7 offloads completed.
Thats an average of two passes per phase.
(You will notice that the number of offloads is also equal to the number of Tahs linebreaks.....hmmm, Im sure one of the other Aussie S14 teams has been offloading really well....).

Gain line %'s was scored at 51%. Another shithouse stat.

So my interpretation. What the phark are they doing at training??!?!

Bang it up into brick walls phase after phase, no footwork, no leg drive, don't look for offloads, and don't attempt to shift the ball to players who are/may be in a better position than you....??

 

[rugbyisfun]

See attached for your reading pleasure (had the day off, just watched the reply). I know this post is specific to a match, but I thought I would post in the Tahs thread for general comment about the style of play.
I wanted to have a simple look at the 'average amount of passing' the Tahs are executing (passing and offloading). By passes, I mean any passes by any player other than the halfback or person standing at halfback
No surprises. They really are an absolute disgrace.
112 phases attempted v the Cats with 49 passes and 7 offloads completed.
Thats an average of two passes per phase.
(You will notice that the number of offloads is also equal to the number of Tahs linebreaks...hmmm, Im sure one of the other Aussie S14 teams has been offloading really well..).

Gain line %'s was scored at 51%. Another shithouse stat.

So my interpretation. What the phark are they doing at training??!?!

Bang it up into brick walls phase after phase, no footwork, no leg drive, don't look for offloads, and don't attempt to shift the ball to players who are/may be in a better position than you..??

I did attach a spreadsheet with my tally system, not sure if it worked?

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Can't see any spreadsheet. May have dropped off somewhere along the way. Perhaps a PM to a Mod may help.

I have found that posting in forums is not quite as simple as attaching an attachment to an Outlook email.

While generally good, this forum software is not entirely WYSIWYG.

 

[rugbyisfun]

I did attach a spreadsheet with my tally system, not sure if it worked?

 

[rugbysmartarse]

It's never too early for Tah's fans to start wringing their hands.

or talking up the tahs chances next year

 

[rugbyisfun]

Looks like it has worked here. FYI. Each row is a new possession. Columns start with the possession type (KR = kick received, TO = turnover, S = scrum etc etc.), the last column is how each particular possession ended.

 

[Braveheart81]

Looks like it has worked here. FYI. Each row is a new possession. Columns start with the possession type (KR = kick received, TO = turnover, S = scrum etc etc.), the last column is how each particular possession ended.

So in your stats, a pick and go or a single pass from halfback to a ball runner equates to no passes?

 

[rugbyisfun]

So in your stats, a pick and go or a single pass from halfback to a ball runner equates to no passes?

Correct

 

[Dave Beat]

Look I disagree, specifically the Tahs our centres are fine, they aren't terrible, but they can play better (as I said before errors are the issue); and as for 13s who pass more? Like who?

Here is a list of all the other 13s in the comp, just which one is the unselfish 13 who doesn't 95% of the time tuck it up under the arm and go for it. Even Smith does it.

Kuridrani, Jordaan, Harris, Stanley, Fruean, Engelbrecht, Cooke, Nanai-Williams, Sadie, Emery or Smith?

Fat Prop, have a look at the Tahs Website Roster, how many players call them selves an "Inside Centre", or an "Outside Centre"?
Suggests a shortage??
Meaning players are playing outside their preferred position.

 

[Braveheart81]

Fat Prop, have a look at the Tahs Website Roster, how many players call them selves an "Inside Centre", or an "Outside Centre"?
Suggests a shortage??
Meaning players are playing outside their preferred position.

I think it's pretty arbitrary and I doubt the players specify what they want listed on the website.

I believe Berrick Barnes has said multiple times that inside centre is his preferred position.

Adam Ashley-Cooper has barely played at fullback in recent years for any team. If he still thinks fullback is his best position then he is kidding himself.

 

[qwerty51]

They did say dislocation or fracture and I think he was cleared of the fracture

Scrap that he's out for 6 weeks with surgery.

So the centre options are basically AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) an Horne. Who goes where? I'd prefer Horne at 13 I reckon he sets up outside men better.

 

[Braveheart81]

Scrap that he's out for 6 weeks with surgery.

So the centre options are basically AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) an Horne. Who goes where? I'd prefer Horne at 13 I reckon he sets up outside men better.

I wasn't impressed by Horne at all when he came on.

I'd actually give AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) another run at 12, Turner a crack at 13 and put Mitchell back into the starting side.

I'd leave Horne on the bench again.

 

[JSRF10]

Although I was set against it a few weeks ago now is the time to give Folau a go at 13. He constantly gets his hands free in the tackle and is regularly beating the first man. The more we can get him the ball the more he'll create for others, I think if he sticks with rugby he is going to be a superstar.
We do run the risk of him being exposed there defensively but as I said before, the upside is too big not to try and its hardly as if he could do worse than how our centres have done this year.
12 is a problem at the moment given BB is confirmed out, but for the time being I'd move AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) into there however yet to be convinced by him this season.

 

[Dave Beat]

I think it's pretty arbitrary and I doubt the players specify what they want listed on the website.
I believe Berrick Barnes has said multiple times that inside centre is his preferred position.
Adam Ashley-Cooper has barely played at fullback in recent years for any team. If he still thinks fullback is his best position then he is kidding himself.

Maybe, I referenced that only to show the shortage and it's not just at the tah's, on the WOBs thread there is much debate.
We have 2 specialist 12's in Taps & Lilo.
Then 13 is a lottery

 

[Braveheart81]

One problem with having Folau at 13 is we will lose a lot of work at the breakdown which is needed to retain possession (or achieve a turnover when the 12 or 14 has made a tackle).

I think after having his best game at fullback and particularly his work under the high ball we should just leave him there for the time being. I wouldn't mind seeing him at 13 eventually but I think he has a lot more to learn before it would be a good idea.

What I do want to see is him taking on the line more. I remember one moment in particular when he fielded a kick and would have run past four of our forwards to hit the defensive line. It was the ideal time to run the ball back at full pace and try and break the line as he had lots of support to retain the ball at the breakdown assuming he got tackled.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Realistically I don't think the inherited squad thing is much of an issue. We have an excellent squad on paper and whilst I am sure Cheika would have tinkered with it a bit if he got to oversee re-signings last season (and more specifically who wasn't re-signed), I can only see him changing a couple of players.

I think you speak a lot of sense BH (not just in this post).
That implies to me that you would expect him to make only a few unforced changes which when coupled with forced changes (i.e. blokes going elsewhere off their own bat) could lead to some turnover.
So here are my questions:

1. who are the "unforced" changes?
2. who replaces them?

These are huge questions, i accept. If you could answer them you'd probably be a s15 coach.

 

[Hawko]

If that's true then I don't think he's a good coach. It's like calling him da Vinci cos he's painting the Mona Lisa by numbers but he doesn't have the right colours. Or watching him trying to make one of those fit-together bookcases from K-Mart without enough screws and calling it carpentry.

Hell, it's like going to the Chicago Bulls in 1992 and trying to build your game plan around Bill Cartwright and Stacey King.

In my humble opinion it is way too early to be dumping on the Waratahs coach. They have had four games and three trials together. Only one of the trials had the bulk of the Wallaby contingent. They are trying to play in a totally different way to what they are used to. This is doubly true for the Wallabies who have had truly Foley-esque coaching for several years. In style, Foley is probably the closest coach to Deans we have in Australia. Four Super games is not enough to purge that crap out of your system.

You don't win a Heineken Cup with a crap coach. Cheika just needs time and a bit of an end of season clearance sale to turn things around. We were never going to make the finals this year anyway.

 

[Braveheart81]

I think you speak a lot of sense BH (not just in this post).
That implies to me that you would expect him to make only a few unforced changes which when coupled with forced changes (i.e. blokes going elsewhere off their own bat) could lead to some turnover.
So here are my questions:

1. who are the "unforced" changes?
2. who replaces them?

These are huge questions, i accept. If you could answer them you'd probably be a s15 coach.

I don't think there are really any unforced changes. If you want someone enough you can probably keep them but to do so you'll lose other players.

The players you're most likely to lose would be those who have been on Wallaby contracts and then don't get a new one (or think that they won't get a new one) and thus there will be a lot less money on offer in Australia and the overseas option looms much larger.

So just to remove any doubt, the players who are already contracted for 2014 are: Crawford, Dennis, Hodge, Hooper, McCutcheon, Ryan.

I think it will more be a case of working hard to retain the players that are viewed as crucial (or very difficult to replace) and working from there.

I think plenty of the 'stars' that aren't playing that well are still likely to be offered new contracts, they will potentially just be for less money than they are currently on. Let's take people like Lachie Turner and Rob Horne. If it got to the stage where Cheika thought that in an ideal world these guys weren't going to be in his matchday 22 (or 23 next year) you wouldn't want them among your highest paid players but I'd almost certainly say that Cheika (or any coach) would have them in their squad if the money they accepted was right in relation to their place in the pecking order.

Players that will be deemed not necessary will be: Luke Holmes (and Fitzpatrick), Brendan McKibbin, Grayson Hart, Greg Peterson or Ollie Atkins or both (Atkins was announced right around the time of Cheika. Not sure if Cheika had any influence on his signing. If not, Atkins will probably go, if he did I'd imagine Atkins will get another contract).

I'd say that Mitchell, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Kepu, Horne, Carter, and Turner will only be kept if the price is right.

I think Barnes, Sitaleki Timani and Palu will almost certainly all head overseas.

 

[fatprop]

Fat Prop, have a look at the Tahs Website Roster, how many players call them selves an "Inside Centre", or an "Outside Centre"?
Suggests a shortage??
Meaning players are playing outside their preferred position.

I don't know whether the players or an intern fills that stuff out, but we have plenty of 13s, (Horne, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) & Kingston) 12s? Well 2, Carter & Barnes, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) at a pinch. That isn't a terrible position

 

[JSRF10]

Cheika recruited very wisely in Leinster and transformed the team from a powder puff pack and inconsistent backs into Heineken Cup winners, and in doing so laid the foundations for Leinster to make the next team into the top ranked team in Europe. However it took him 2 off seasons of recruiting before he got the team properly together.
If he gets time and support he has shown in the past he can put successful teams together, the only thing he can't for the Tahs which he was able to do with Leinster was open the checkbook and go after the missing piece of the jigsaw. I highly doubt the ARU would sanction a big money move for a 2014 equivalent of what Elsom was in 2008, however when at Leinster the IRFU (at that time) would have no problem going after superstars for him.