Wallaby 31 players for 2015 RWC

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Jeepers Mark, I reckon there aren't enough Tahs in that team.

 

[Train Without a Station]

So I'm preparing an article based on statistics on what a successful pack yields per game and on that basis looking at what combinations we can use to achieve as close to that as possible.

I'm still putting all the statistics together but already, without looking at the Waratahs and reds I have noticed an alarming difference.

I have used the following packs for SA and NZ for a comparison on the basis that each player was the most frequently used in that position in 2014. The only exceptions are the SA flankers so I assumed Burger will be there and used Coetzee instead of Louw due to only having super rugby stats:

NZ
1. Crockett
2. Coles
3. Franks
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Kaino
7. McCaw
8. Read

SA
1. Mtawarira
2. Du Plesis
3. Du Plesis
4. Etzebeth
5. Matfield
6. Coetzee
7. Burger
8. Vermuelan

Anyway what the statistics say is that for NZ's preferred pack only Whitelock (857) and McCaw (911) have played over 800 mins in the regular season.

For SA only Coetzee has with 1167 and he is unlikely to be a first choice player.

Compare that to Australia and despite only tabulating data for about half the top contenders the following players have played more than 800 minutes:

Mccalman - 1156
Higginbotham - 1199
Palu - 875
Vaea - 903
Alexander - 872
Moore - 934
Pocock - 955
Fardy - 1280 (every minute of every game)
PAE - 939
Toby Smith - 1040
McMahon - 1086
Jones - 1232
Timani - 879
Skelton - 1030
Dennis - 1159
Horwill - 855
Sam Carter - 972

All of our players are playing more than their counterparts. What's even more alarming is many of these players are only under 1000 minutes (of a possible 1280) because of injury, injury recovery or suspension and without that, many likely would have pushed up around 1100 minutes.

I haven't even gotten to comparing output, but if Australia performs poorly and you are looking for a reason, I'd be looking at provincial coaches who have given top line players very little respite in 2015.

 

[#1 Tah]

Don't understand the Mumm hate. Dude was named captain of the dream team in a season where he captained Exeter to the championship. He's a workhorse and a line out technician, which is exactly what we need in a lock.

Imagine coming up against this backline in opposed training:
11: Horne
12: Kerevi
13: Kurindrani
14: Naiyaravoro
15: Folau

It's been a while since we could pack that many big blokes in

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[Train Without a Station]

Because he was good at super level for years but always inadequate at test level. What's different about being good at Premiership level?

And most importantly importantly, how many of the best line out technicians are 196cm?

 

[mouth guard]

Just to generate some discussion, here's mark Ella's starting xv in the Aus this morning:

1. Slipper
2. Moore
3. Kepu
4. Simmons
5. Skelton
6. Dennis - c
7. Hooper
8. Palu
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Beale (blind side)
12. Too mua
13. Kuridrani
14. Ashley-cooper (open)
15. Folau


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Thank F*ck Mark Ella isn't selecting the team....

 

[Merrow]

Don't understand the Mumm hate. Dude was named captain of the dream team in a season where he captained Exeter to the championship. He's a workhorse and a line out technician, which is exactly what we need in a lock.

Imagine coming up against this backline in opposed training:
11: Horne
12: Kerevi
13: Kurindrani
14: Naiyaravoro
15: Folau

It's been a while since we could pack that many big blokes in

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I wouldn't say hate, but did he have the required 60 Wallaby caps? No, about half of what's required, so let's bring him back for a couple of games at the end of the season to make him eligible. Guys like Jones and Coleman put in full super rugby seasons, and frankly should feel ripped off.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Giteau and To'omua I think, with Gits in my mind favourite for starting 12. Kerevi's defence needs some long term remedial coaching to remove the RG influence. This squad will be a start. Beale is there to back up 15 if Folau needs a rest or (heaven forbid) gets injured, and perhaps for versatility on the bench if we go 6:2.

@Hawko, you seem to have a soft spot for the players returning from the NH. First Mumm and now Matt Giteau.

I hope we don't see both Giteau and Beale in the 23. In all likelihood both Horne and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) will be in the 23 and maybe starting. That'd have potentially 4 versatile players in the backline at the one time. Sounds like an Aus cricket team full of all rounders in place of specialists to me. Used to be tried a fair bit but with little to no success.

Give me specialists please, with a minimum, maybe one or two at most, versatile players who cover multiple spots but at a lesser standard. Only Horne and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) would get a run in my team.

Here's hoping some good old fashioned SH common sense will prevail.

 

[#1 Tah]

This isn't about who played for what team in what country though, it's about picking the best players that are eligible. Mumm has signed with the ARU up until 2017 so he's eligible.

The "being good at premiership level is no different" argument doesn't stack up because he was named the best player in the competition by BT Sport... It would have been like not picking Folau in 2014 when he was named player of the year in Super Rugby

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[Brumby Runner]

We should start our "first" 15 against SA and then start a "back-up" 15 against the Pumas. With astute selection of bench players we should be able to do a first cull of who will be going to RWC.

Rest and experimentation should be the byword to our RC campaign, with a full-on tilt at the RWC to follow. I expect the top team to be selected for games 1, 3 & 4 and for the subsequent games.

I agree with a fair bit of what you say, particularly about resting players and some experimentation, but if you are recommending a completely new "backup" 15 then I would take exception. That would be akin to having a second rate Super XV side running around in which a few players who might have the goods to play at the higher level don't get an opportunity to shine because of the other lesser players around them. The Reds this year come to mind where it has been argued that certain players look to be out of form but really they were suffering from being in a team that as a whole wasn't amongst the top sides.

I think a core of the first 15 needs to start in all matches, with perhaps a couple of the newbies starting in the 'éasier' games and a couple more on the bench. Or alternatively, start up to 5 or 6 but have a very strong bench to close the game out. Give the new players a chance to show what they can (or can't) do in what is still a strong all round side.

 

[KOB1987]

I think that giteau, Mitchell and mumm all need to get game time in the first 2 matches so that they can be lined up relative to their alternatives. There is simply no other way to find out where they are at.

 

[Highlander35]

This isn't about who played for what team in what country though, it's about picking the best players that are eligible. Mumm has signed with the ARU up until 2017 so he's eligible.

The "being good at premiership level is no different" argument doesn't stack up because he was named the best player in the competition by BT Sport. It would have been like not picking Folau in 2014 when he was named player of the year in Super Rugby

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Yeah. But it's not quite an appropriate analogy. The best NH locks playing in the English Premiership miss about 5 games between the November Internationals and the Six Nations, then get rested further for Champions cup fixtures, meaning that it's hard for blokes like Geoff Parling, Alyn Wyn Jones, Courtney Lawes, Jim Hamilton etc. to make that team since they'll only play 12-14 games in the prem per year. I wouldn't have the numbers, but would assume Mumm would be close to 20 fixtures played.

So it'd be like Mogg winning fullback of the season, because Dagg, Ben Smith, Le Roux and Folau all played 9 or 10 games to his 15ish, then not selecting him for the Wallabies.

 

[Strewthcobber]

I haven't even gotten to comparing output, but if Australia performs poorly and you are looking for a reason, I'd be looking at provincial coaches who have given top line players very little respite in 2015.

The international coach really should have put his foot down on this

 

[Brumby Runner]

This isn't about who played for what team in what country though, it's about picking the best players that are eligible. Mumm has signed with the ARU up until 2017 so he's eligible.

The "being good at premiership level is no different" argument doesn't stack up because he was named the best player in the competition by BT Sport. It would have been like not picking Folau in 2014 when he was named player of the year in Super Rugby

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Nah - more like picking Rocky Elsom after he was named the best player on the planet. Look how good that turned out for us.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Yeah. But it's not quite an appropriate analogy. The best NH locks playing in the English Premiership miss about 5 games between the November Internationals and the Six Nations, then get rested further for Champions cup fixtures, meaning that it's hard for blokes like Geoff Parling, Alyn Wyn Jones, Courtney Lawes, Jim Hamilton etc. to make that team since they'll only play 12-14 games in the prem per year. I wouldn't have the numbers, but would assume Mumm would be close to 20 fixtures played.

So it'd be like Mogg winning fullback of the season, because Dagg, Ben Smith, Le Roux and Folau all played 9 or 10 games to his 15ish, then not selecting him for the Wallabies.

And iirc wasn't Brock James given player of the year, or at least for his position, in one of the NH comps recently. I fear there is quite a differential in the standard of the NH comps against the standard of Super rugby.

 

[SammyP]

Just to generate some discussion, here's mark Ella's starting xv in the Aus this morning:

1. Slipper
2. Moore
3. Kepu
4. Simmons
5. Skelton
6. Dennis - c
7. Hooper
8. Palu
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Beale (blind side)
12. Too mua
13. Kuridrani
14. Ashley-cooper (open)
15. Folau


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Doesn't he know Horne isn't spelt T-o-o-m-u-a and Naiyaravoro definitely doesn't start with a K!. Moore Slipper and Simmons ... well thats just an oversight.

FFS

 

[fatprop]

My 2 cents

1. Slipper
2. Moore
3. Kepu
4. Simmons
5. Skelton
6. Fardy
7. Hooper or Pocock
8. Higgers
9. Phipps
10. Foley or Cooper
11. Tomane
12. Lealiifano or To'omua
13. Kuridrani
14. Ashley-cooper
15. Folau

16 Hanson
17 Holmes
18 Sio
19 Arnold
20 McCalman
21 Genia
22 Mitchell

I don't see the "or"s as the best bench options

 

[TOCC]

My 2 cents

1. Slipper
2. Moore
3. Kepu
4. Simmons
5. Skelton
6. Fardy
7. Hooper or Pocock
8. Higgers
9. Phipps
10. Foley or Cooper
11. Tomane
12. Lealiifano or To'omua
13. Kuridrani
14. Ashley-cooper
15. Folau

16 Hanson
17 Holmes
18 Sio
19 Arnold
20 McCalman
21 Genia
22 Mitchell

I don't see the "or"s as the best bench options

This is my lineup as well, the only change would be that I don't see Lealifano as starting.

 

[Benaud]

My 2 cents

1. Slipper
2. Moore
3. Kepu
4. Simmons
5. Skelton
6. Fardy
7. Hooper or Pocock
8. Higgers
9. Phipps
10. Foley or Cooper
11. Tomane
12. Lealiifano or To'omua
13. Kuridrani
14. Ashley-cooper
15. Folau

16 Hanson
17 Holmes
18 Sio
19 Arnold
20 McCalman
21 Genia
22 Mitchell

I don't see the "or"s as the best bench options

I'd have the same starting XV, with all 3 of your ors starting.

Think TPN, Horwill and Giteau will be on the bench.

 

[BDA]

Maybe an extra player too

 

[fatprop]

This is my lineup as well, the only change would be that I don't see Lealifano as starting.

I see him as a better "10/12" than To'omua who I see as more of a "12/10"