Wallabies world cup squad selection

[RedsHappy]

There are really two teams in every conversation. There is the team Deans will pick and then there is the team that the particular contributor would pick. Rarely are they the same. Clearly Deans likes Alexander, Vickerman and McCalman and doesn't like Sharpie. Based on their super form that is akin to lunacy, certainly its at least strange. But Deans has the selection votes and he will pick who he wants. I think everyone is just assuming that as we get closer to the world cup that Deans will stop picking those he likes and will instead pick the best performed players in their positions. Personally, I doubt this will happen. Barring injuries or two disastrous results against New Zealand in the Bledisloe, I would back Alexander and McCalman to be in the starting line-up against Ireland. On form they don't deserve it but based on history I think its very likely.

So for the purposes of this thread, we need to work in two parallel universes - Deans' world where we try to guess who will be picked and the other world where form is the primary determinant along with the potential to fit into the gameplan for the game. Right now our best available front row on form is Kepu, Moore and Baxter. If Robinson, TPN and Slipper were fit then I'd have Robinson, TPN and Kepu with Moore and Slipper on the bench. I would be happy to interchange any of those players, there is little between them. They all play slightly differently (eg TPN has more impact, Moore is more a workhorse) but that's a front row that can deliver all that a front row has to do. Baxter would be fourth prop in case of injury and probably Charles or Hanson the back-up hooker. But that will not be Deans choice. Alexander will be chosen for his ability to score tries and run with the ball. If Slipper is back he might be forced to the bench, and if Robinson is back Kepu will drop out of the 22.

Similarly, on form our locks would be Sharpe and Horwill and our backrow would be Pocock, Palu and Elsom, with Higgers or Samo if Palu doesn't make it back. But it won't happen in Deans' world.

I wish we were in my world and not Deans' world, but I guess that's what they call perspective. But I want to win the Bledisloe and Bill and with Deans choices I think we will fall a bit short.

Fine work Hawko, fine work.

 

[Gnostic]

I must say I am wishing and dreaming of the back page of the paper headlining with Deans sacked, JON, resigns in disgrace.

 

[TSR]

Hawko, I agree with your sentiment - but I do sometimes wonder if we the criticism of Deans is completely warranted. Every coach shows loyalty to certain players - it is unrealistic to think Deans will be any different. He has certainly been prepared to blood new talent and, at the same time make tough decisions on those he thinks do not measure up at a point in time. He is equally criticised for picking guys and leaving guys out, however we are in the best shape in terms of depth we have been in for about 8-10 years. Some of his supposed favourites (eg I have been critical of the selection of Mumm & Chisolm in the past) were probably the best options at the time and are now out of favour with the fitness of other options. He has shown he is prepared to persist with other players - remember Alexander actually scrummaged very well in 2009 (someone pointed out to me that it was the last time Horwell was behind him). Of course we all have our favourites and we think Deans is an idiot for leaving them out. But you can mount a case for almost every overlooked player on this blog (+ half that are in the side) and there will be a chorus of those supporting and opposing your view. eg I agree Sharpe has been in excellent form (and unlucky to be left behind) but believe Simmons is a better fit for what we need from our locks. Deans was also upfront early in his tenure that some of the older players would have to bide their time while he gave others there opportunity. I think he even specifically referred to Baxter. Now that the World Cup is nigh, Baxter is back in the training group. Maybe he'll make the cut, maybe he won't but he doesn't seem as far out of the frame as some of Dean's critics would suggest he is (and again there are plenty who would suggest he isn't far enough).

Long term key Wallabies such as Gregan, Larkham & Latham finished at the start of Deans tenure and George Smith left not long after, but since then the likes of Cooper, Genia, JOC (James O'Connor), Beale, Pocock, TPN have emerged. The Wallabies have a better first XV (IMO), better depth and seem to have a genuine chance to threaten a very good All Black side. Our front row problems may not yet be completely behind us, but we are in better shape then we were. All in all, Deans must be doing some things right.

 

[Groucho]

There are really two teams in every conversation. There is the team Deans will pick and then there is the team that the particular contributor would pick. Rarely are they the same. Clearly Deans likes Alexander, Vickerman and McCalman and doesn't like Sharpie. Based on their super form that is akin to lunacy, certainly its at least strange. But Deans has the selection votes and he will pick who he wants. I think everyone is just assuming that as we get closer to the world cup that Deans will stop picking those he likes and will instead pick the best performed players in their positions. Personally, I doubt this will happen. Barring injuries or two disastrous results against New Zealand in the Bledisloe, I would back Alexander and McCalman to be in the starting line-up against Ireland. On form they don't deserve it but based on history I think its very likely.

So for the purposes of this thread, we need to work in two parallel universes - Deans' world where we try to guess who will be picked and the other world where form is the primary determinant along with the potential to fit into the gameplan for the game. Right now our best available front row on form is Kepu, Moore and Baxter. If Robinson, TPN and Slipper were fit then I'd have Robinson, TPN and Kepu with Moore and Slipper on the bench. I would be happy to interchange any of those players, there is little between them. They all play slightly differently (eg TPN has more impact, Moore is more a workhorse) but that's a front row that can deliver all that a front row has to do. Baxter would be fourth prop in case of injury and probably Charles or Hanson the back-up hooker. But that will not be Deans choice. Alexander will be chosen for his ability to score tries and run with the ball. If Slipper is back he might be forced to the bench, and if Robinson is back Kepu will drop out of the 22.

Similarly, on form our locks would be Sharpe and Horwill and our backrow would be Pocock, Palu and Elsom, with Higgers or Samo if Palu doesn't make it back. But it won't happen in Deans' world.

I wish we were in my world and not Deans' world, but I guess that's what they call perspective. But I want to win the Bledisloe and Bill and with Deans choices I think we will fall a bit short.

Isn't there already a Deans bichin' thread?

 

[Gnostic]

No Grouch the short sighted closed it this time last year.

 

[Groucho]

Deans is an international rugby coach. Whilst it is adorable that we accountants, hairdressers, bankers and computer programmers believe we're better at coaching and selection at that level, it is highly unlikely that we actually are. When I see what I perceive to be an obvious error from a national coach, the first thing I wonder is what it is I don't understand. Of course it might be true that we could teach Deans a thing or two, it is slightly more likely that he could teach us.

Of course, this doesn't mean we can't disagree and moan to our heart's content! This is the Internet, after all. As long as we keep remembering that it's all a fantasy, and that we're not actually experts, then we'll be alright.

The blue pill, boys, the blue pill.

 

[TOCC]

comeon lads, no need for name calling

 

[Gnostic]

Deans is an international rugby coach. Whilst it is adorable that we accountants, hairdressers, bankers and computer programmers believe we're better at coaching and selection at that level, it is highly unlikely that we actually are. When I see what I perceive to be an obvious error from a national coach, the first thing I wonder is what it is I don't understand. Of course it might be true that we could teach Deans a thing or two, it is slightly more likely that he could teach us.

Of course, this doesn't mean we can't disagree and moan to our heart's content! This is the Internet, after all. As long as we keep remembering that it's all a fantasy, and that we're not actually experts, then we'll be alright.

The blue pill, boys, the blue pill.

Yes Mr Burke.

If I had an employee paid half as much as Deans who performed as badly I sack him and investigate if he falsified his job application. By any assessment criteria he is the worst coach in 30 years. A flawless result sheet from now to 2012 is the only way he can redeem himself to many Wallabies fans.

 

[TSR]

I would have thought Australian rugby was in much better shape now than when he took over. No doubt there have been other contributers, but at least some of this has to be attributed to him.

 

[Richo]

Isn't there already a Deans bichin' thread?

To be fair, Groucho, I don't think Hawko is bitching, as much as offering comment on the strange and consistent discrepancy between the consensus view of the fans on this site and Deans selections. Nowhere does he demand that Deans be sacked, etc. etc. blah blah yada yada yada.

Just sayin'.

 

[Groucho]

To be fair, Groucho, I don't think Hawko is bitching, as much as offering comment on the strange and consistent discrepancy between the consensus view of the fans on this site and Deans selections. Nowhere does he demand that Deans be sacked, etc. etc. blah blah yada yada yada.

Just sayin'.

I know guys. I'm only stirring. But I am happy to stand up for our coaching team in the face of criticism.

 

[Richo]

I know guys. I'm only stirring. But I am happy to stand up for our coaching team in the face of criticism.

Fair.

Personally, I find unrelenting criticism as meaningless and as unquestioning support. (Not to suggest that you're displaying the latter, btw!)

 

[Reddy!]

Isn't there already a Deans bichin' thread?

It keeps turning into a bichin' about Deans bichin' thread thread.

 

[Reddy!]

A flawless result sheet from now to 2012 is the only way he can redeem himself to many Wallabies fans.

It makes me wonder - if the Wallabies do win the World Cup...was it even worth it? Does it really make up for another 4 years without Bledisloe and Tri Nations trophys with a handful of embarressing defeats thrown in for good measure? It's an interesting question. It has already created a precedent for Wallabies teams and other international teams of the future to follow and I'm not sure if it is the right way.

 

[Reddy!]

I would have thought Australian rugby was in much better shape now than when he took over. No doubt there have been other contributers, but at least some of this has to be attributed to him.

Other contributors:
QLD Reds playing an unprecedented entertaining style of rugby
QLD Reds winning the Super Rugby title
Young excitement machines Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Kurtley Beale, James O'Connor, Drew Mitchell and Digby Ioane ensure the popularity of the Wallabies continue and are some of the most marketable faces in Australian sport.

 

[Reddy!]

I know guys. I'm only stirring. But I am happy to stand up for our coaching team in the face of criticism.

You do know he is a kiwi right?

 

[Hawko]

Deans is an international rugby coach. Whilst it is adorable that we accountants, hairdressers, bankers and computer programmers believe we're better at coaching and selection at that level, it is highly unlikely that we actually are. When I see what I perceive to be an obvious error from a national coach, the first thing I wonder is what it is I don't understand. Of course it might be true that we could teach Deans a thing or two, it is slightly more likely that he could teach us.

My post was not designed to start a Deans bitch session. I genuinely do not understand the underlying strategy, and the most perplexing part is the selection at THP and 8. Its the same thing I do when a coach does something that doesn't look right to me, I try to figure out what I don't understand. I am a supporter, not a rugby coach. My problem with the national coach is that I do not understand what he is trying to do with his forward selections for what is a crucial match in this year's campaign. Unlike others, I do not believe that Hong Kong got the monkey off our backs, but I do believe that a win at Eden Park this year certainly would. Apart from the four key matches at the WC, this match for mine is the most important to win this season for the reason that it would establish psychological dominance. So why aren't the form players being selected?

The other problem I have is that Deans does not clearly communicate what he is trying to do. Maybe this is all part of the Sun Tzu strategy to confuse the enemy and not let them understand what the team strategy really is. I do recognise that informing supporters is not very high on the coach's agenda and I don't think it should be. But given that all that we supporters have to go on are the on-field performances to help us define our team's intent, I still don't understand. (I do by the way understand what Graham Henry is doing from his team selections this year and I do think he's making the best he can out of what he's got).

I understand the back's strategy and selection. What we have now is a clear direction in how we want to play the game and from 9 outwards we have a team that can beat New Zealand. All the players in the backs demonstrated in the Super comp that they had the capability to contribute at the level required except for AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), who proved that on the EOYT. Not only do I understand the back's strategy, but until Mitchell returns I think the best performed players are on the park in a coherent package that is our best chance to take down NZ on Saturday.

Its the forwards selections I don't get. The blue pills don't help. They just drain the blood away from my thinking areas to other parts, which leaves me even more confused.

 

[TOCC]

Do people expect Robbie Deans to hold a public forum and explain every selection decision and tactical decision he makes or something?
It bewilders me why people think that Robbie needs to explain his decisions to the public, in doing so giving an insight into whatever tactical decision they have made.
There is a reason that the coaches and players talk so vaguely about such things.

 

[Hawko]

Do people expect Robbie Deans to hold a public forum and explain every selection decision and tactical decision he makes or something?
It bewilders me why people think that Robbie needs to explain his decisions to the public, in doing so giving an insight into whatever tactical decision they have made.
There is a reason that the coaches and players talk so vaguely about such things.

I agree. Its not the coach's key KPI to tell the supporters what the team strategy is, its not even in the top 100. But I do expect that if I look at the on field performances over a reasonable period I will get some understanding of what we are trying to do and why we are selecting particular players. With the backs I totally get it and I think we've got the right combinations on the park for this weekend. Its just the pack that doesn't make sense to me and I fear that come Saturday we will be back in our no. 2 box after yet another close loss.

 

[TSR]

Yes Reddy, I agree that Qlds success is of great benefit to the Wallabies - but it alone won't win the World Cup. Kurtley Beale openly credits Deans with turning him from a player with potential to the player he is today (even though Deans is on record as having not actually remembered the specific conversation). I also wonder how many other coaches would not have been prepared to back JOC (James O'Connor) & Pocock so young and stick with them so that they are now experienced internationals. Drew Mitchell came back a better player through last years international season (after initially being dropped). I even think Quade Cooper turned the corner after being picked (some would say undeservedly) for the 2009 EOYT and forcing his way into the test team.

I 100% agree that sacrificing 4 yrs of results for the WC is not an acceptable strategy. But, realistically did we have a lot of choices. We were hardly at a high point in 2007 and several of our key performers moved in straight after the WC. I don't know that we could realistically expect great results in 2008 or 2009.

Hawko, for my part, sorry - I didn't mean to imply that you were starting a bitch season. While I do think Deans deserves some credit for he improvement (IMO) of Australian rugby over the term of his tenure, I do agree that it is sometimes very hard to follow his selections and work out exactly what his strategy is. But I am forever hopeful that better times are ahead and think we are ever chance in the WC.