Wallabies Watch

[Richo]

It's not meaningless as a measure, it's simply like all statistics: it needs to supplement the eye-test and not replace it.

It's certainly more meaningful than "my impression is that..."

 

[Bowside]

You can't take stats on rugby games as gospel. They are almost always inaccurate, and vary widely between source.

I still look at them from time to time, but it's no substitute to watching the game, or even better, going to the game and focusing on watching a single player (to see what they do off the ball).

 

[southsider]

Do you (or anyone else) know exactly how the run metres are calculated? It seems to me that it is a measure of how far the player runs with the ball after he receives it. It does not appear to be a measure of how far he gets over the gain line. If that is the case, I believe it is meaningless. A player like Cliff Palu will generally take the ball much deeper than say a prop or lock nearer the breakdown. His rum metres might then be far greater than the other, but he more often than not still gets caught behind the gain line, where the other (Scott Sio for example) might make only a couple of metres but that is invariably over the gain line and gets the defence moving backwards. I know which measure I think has more value.

yep i work for fox sports, we do it from where they get the ball, not how far over the advantage line

 

[Brumbieman]

So that's why Palu has great run metres, at odds with what I see from his ball carries 75% of the time?

 

[Scotty]

Considering the Reds play with a flat line, this would have their run stats down compared to other teams?

 

[lewisr]

Considering the Reds play with a flat line, this would have their run stats down compared to other teams?

The Reds have the highest running metres of any team and the fact they play with a flat line further shows that their attack has not been effective this year. Oh wait....

 

[cyclopath]

Do you have running metres and tries scored stats for Oz teams? I'd be interested to see how they all stack up.

 

[lewisr]

cyclopath http://www.sanzarrugby.com/superrugby/competition-stats/team-ranking/

 

[cyclopath]

cyclopath http://www.sanzarrugby.com/superrugby/competition-stats/team-ranking/

Thanks for that. Looking at raw data, it puzzles why the Tahs are not doing better, but then look at tackle success - quite low. Still, 2nd for tries, run metres. Reds leading run metres and carries - much lower in tries which must be all those held-up / disallowed ones.

 

[lewisr]

Thanks for that. Looking at raw data, it puzzles why the Tahs are not doing better, but then look at tackle success - quite low. Still, 2nd for tries, run metres. Reds leading run metres and carries - much lower in tries which must be all those held-up / disallowed ones.

No probs. As with all statistics theres some issues behind them... I would say alot of the tahs stats came out of the Southern Kings Game. A match like that dramatically shifts all those stats. They ran in like 7 tries didnt they?

Reds have been crap at finishing this year for some reason. They're usually a very lucky team and get the 50/50 calls but it hasnt gone their way. I think the only ones I've been genuinely shocked about are the ones from last weekend.

 

[cyclopath]

No probs. As with all statistics theres some issues behind them. I would say alot of the tahs stats came out of the Southern Kings Game. A match like that dramatically shifts all those stats. They ran in like 7 tries didnt they?

Reds have been crap at finishing this year for some reason. They're usually a very lucky team and get the 50/50 calls but it hasnt gone their way. I think the only ones I've been genuinely shocked about are the ones from last weekend.

11 tries, which skews them, but even if they just got 5, they'd be top third for tries still. The run metres / carries encourage me the most after years of crap in that department. Yeah, Reds finishing looks to be the sticking point. I blame Cooper.
I'm farking kidding!

 

[lewisr]

11 tries, which skews them, but even if they just got 5, they'd be top third for tries still. The run metres / carries encourage me the most after years of crap in that department. Yeah, Reds finishing looks to be the sticking point. I blame Cooper.
I'm farking kidding!

Yeh well I blame Deans! Bloody Deans. Bloody Cooper. Bloody muppets.

Edit: I think their past few weeks have been absolutely brilliant so I don't think the stats are lying as such. Start of the season they weren't playing bad, just getting over the whole Waratah not knowing how to win issue they've had. The Reds have some serious work to do if they are to beat them in a few weeks time.

 

[Joe Blow]

Samo anyone?
He has so much power and makes ample yards from a standing start in the thick of it. Palu is out of form and Deans may pull Samo out of nowhere as a very smart last 6 pick.
Custom made for the Lions series!

 

[RoffsChoice]

Samo has been doing okay in club rugby from what I've heard, but wasn't particularly effective against the Stormers.

 

[tigerland12]

I only saw the first half of the Reds match, but I thought Radike was relatively ineffective as well. Doesn't really break past a jog most of the time as well.

 

[USARugger]

Samo had a few 'ok' runs from a static start but really didn't contribute much else. If this was 2011 or prior Samo we were talking about I'd be singing a very different tune. I absolutely love the guy but even my personal bias can't override the fact that starting him over Quirk was a bit of a mistake (unless Quirk was in some serious need of a rest).

 

[Richo]

Samo anyone?
He has so much power and makes ample yards from a standing start in the thick of it. Palu is out of form and Deans may pull Samo out of nowhere as a very smart bizarre last 6 pick.
Custom made for the 2001 Lions series!

Fixed that for you.

 

[Cosmo Jones]

Thanks for that. Looking at raw data, it puzzles why the Tahs are not doing better, but then look at tackle success - quite low. Still, 2nd for tries, run metres. Reds leading run metres and carries - much lower in tries which must be all those held-up / disallowed ones.

It puzzles me why they dont use folau as much as they could, the guy's a weapon and always manages to create something out of nothing yet they dont take advantage of it. Baffles me

 

[Brumbieman]

Trying to learn how to become a team and not rely on one player? I like it, Folau is just another wheel in the cog, and if he goes the Tahs won't lose their manhood in attack.

Someone is finally turning the Waratahs into a team, and not about time. If they do well next year, playing attractive rugby (hopefully Folau sticks around), I think we might finally see Aussie rugby get the boost its been needing since 2003. A good Lions series, Link takes over after Dingo is lynched for the EOYT, we start winning things again and we'l get the crowds back. The Tahs HAVE to be successful, and playing entertaining rugby, they simply must, because they're the only rugby team in an entire league oriented city. They represent rugby to Sydney folk, and the shit they've served up the last few years has hurt our code.

 

[Athilnaur]

No probs. As with all statistics theres some issues behind them. I would say alot of the tahs stats came out of the Southern Kings Game. A match like that dramatically shifts all those stats. They ran in like 7 tries didnt they?.

not to single you out but this is fallacious logic. Of course a lot of those stats came out of the Kings game, the Tahs thrashed the Kings. Something the Brumbies didn't do, do we discount the brumbies game too?

Statistics are a means of keeping an objective assessment but only if your data source is objective and only if you have enough data. 15 rounds of super rugby is a lot of data. 95 games. 355 odd players. 7,600 minutes of rugby. 114,000 minutes of player time. Up to 1,040 minutes of individual player time.

Statistics are only a general indicator, but they are a lot more reliable than the various one eyed opinions we all run into - including our own quite often.

Rant over.