Wallabies v Springboks, Sat 10th August 2.30pm AEST @ Suncorp,

[The Phoenix]

Wow man, you really don't like the Tahs, honestly the way they played this year none should get in except Bell if match fit. I rate out No 9 talent in Aus pretty lame as well. Honestly, I am a Tahs fan and I prefer Lonergan over all other 9's. I see Gordon about the same as Tate and ahead of White. Just my view.

I've always rated Gordon. He's had a thankless task at the Tahs over the past couple of years as captain of an underperforming side but was often their best player. Very happy for him to be first choice 9.

 

[LeCheese]

That's all very well but neither Lolesio nor Donalson have grabbed their opportunities and they have had plenty. 10 is not a placemat, it is a key position for any rugby team. I agree with sticking IF we have a 10 who shows some improvement over some games. Both Donaldson and Lolesio have not done this, particularly Lolesio.

My point is about consistency and building confidence in the role - the below list of starting 10s over the past 4 seasons demonstrates how this has been sorely missing of late. The last time we had some consistency ('21) we had a pretty strong season - other factors at play of course.

Over the past 3 seasons, Carter Gordon strung together the most games with 5; Lolesio has had 3 in a row at most, and Donaldson with 2. You can't build a team like this.

'21​	'22​	'23​	'24​
France 1 - Lolesio	England 1 - Lolesio	South Africa - Cooper	Wales 1 - Lolesio
France 2 - Lolesio	England 2 - Lolesio	Argentina - Cooper	Wales 2 - Lolesio
France 3 - Lolesio	England 3 - Lolesio	NZ 1 - Gordon	Georgia - Donaldson
NZ 1 - Lolesio	Argentina 1 - Cooper	NZ 2 - Gordon
NZ 2 - Lolesio	Argentina 2 - O’Connor	France - Gordon
NZ 3 - Lolesio	South Africa 1 - Lolesio	Georgia - Gordon
South Africa 1 - Cooper	South Africa 2 - Lolesio	Fiji - Gordon
South Africa 2 - Cooper	NZ 1 - Foley	Wales - Donaldson
Argentina 1 - Cooper	NZ 2 - Foley	Portugal - Donaldson
Argentina 2 - Cooper	Scotland - Foley
Japan - Cooper	France - Foley
Scotland - O'Connor	Italy - Lolesio
England - O'Connor	Ireland - Foley
Wales - O'Connor	Wales - Donaldson

 

[Slim 293]

Just missing the 2021 Spring tour there...

Japan - Cooper
Scotland - O'Connor
England - O'Connor
Wales - O'Connor

Also, Donaldson started against Wales in 2022, with Lolesio on the bench coming on for the comeback.

 

[LeCheese]

Just missing the 2021 Spring tour there...

Japan - Cooper
Scotland - O'Connor
England - O'Connor
Wales - O'Connor

Also, Donaldson started against Wales in 2022, with Lolesio on the bench coming on for the comeback.

Whoops - cheers, updated

 

[Braveheart81]

Has Lolesio actually improved that much since 2021? In my view he's still largely the same player.

The argument that the selecting and dropping him often has damaged his confidence or ability falls flat a bit I think because Donaldson is a pretty direct comparison. Same age, similar pedigree (both in the same under 20s side) and Lolesio was a bit ahead of Donaldson then and is still a bit ahead of Donaldson now. Donaldson didn't exposed to test rugby so early but I'd argue they've pretty much continued on the same trajectory irrespective of that. They've both improved as players do as they get to their mid 20s but I don't think either has made a fundamental leap forward in their game (and I think that is much rarer with the early exposure to professionalism meaning they are closer to their potential at an earlier stage than they would have been historically).

It's somewhat a catch-22. Someone might benefit from being selected on an ongoing basis and never having their position questioned but likewise no one has played at close to the level that would demand or warrant that.

There's no obvious answer in my view.

 

[fatprop]

I'll be happy if we're within 10.

I will be amazed if we are within 10

I am still getting flash backs to previous moments of excitement and hope; before game day reality stomps my soul into the ground

 

[fatprop]

Has Lolesio actually improved that much since 2021? In my view he's still largely the same player.

The argument that the selecting and dropping him often has damaged his confidence or ability falls flat a bit I think because Donaldson is a pretty direct comparison. Same age, similar pedigree (both in the same under 20s side) and Lolesio was a bit ahead of Donaldson then and is still a bit ahead of Donaldson now. Donaldson didn't exposed to test rugby so early but I'd argue they've pretty much continued on the same trajectory irrespective of that.

It's somewhat a catch-22. Someone might benefit from being selected on an ongoing basis and never having their position questioned but likewise no one has played at close to the level that would demand or warrant that.

There's no obvious answer in my view.

He looks very effective behind the ponies machine, but I think any of our options would,

I think he is a solid, but limited unit; a better Tane Edmed

Not an aspiring dominant test 10 you build a side around

That said, he is the best we have in 2024 and we need to work out solutions around his strengths and weaknesses, not swap in and out every week

 

[Braveheart81]

He looks very effective behind the ponies machine, but I think any of our options would,

I think he is a solid, but limited unit; a better Tane Edmed

Not an aspiring dominant test 10 you build a side around

That said, he is the best we have in 2024 and we need to work out solutions around his strengths and weaknesses, not swap in and out every week

They should and generally all do look better at Super Rugby level. Particularly when they're playing on a team that is relatively better than the Wallabies vs our opponents.

I absolutely agree that we shouldn't be swapping every week but likewise I think the benefit of picking and sticking and the detriment of making changes is overstated. The current reality is we have three options who are all very close to each other.

 

[Tomthumb]

It's been said before, but this line of thinking is genuinely problematic. We shouldn't be dropping a 10 (or most positions, for that matter) off the back of one bad game. We've consistently seen that feeling a lack of security inspires absolutely no confidence within a player.

I'm by no means a huge Noah fan, but I do hope Schmidt's told him he's got the keys for the RC. Same would go for Donaldson or Lynagh if they were called upon. Pick and stick.

To be fair Noah has been recalled off 2 bad games and a bad cameo off the bench

I get the feeling Schmidt views Lynagh as his 10 going forward and if his hamstring didn't play up he would already be the starter

 

[Tomthumb]

Has Lolesio actually improved that much since 2021? In my view he's still largely the same player.

The argument that the selecting and dropping him often has damaged his confidence or ability falls flat a bit I think because Donaldson is a pretty direct comparison. Same age, similar pedigree (both in the same under 20s side) and Lolesio was a bit ahead of Donaldson then and is still a bit ahead of Donaldson now. Donaldson didn't exposed to test rugby so early but I'd argue they've pretty much continued on the same trajectory irrespective of that. They've both improved as players do as they get to their mid 20s but I don't think either has made a fundamental leap forward in their game (and I think that is much rarer with the early exposure to professionalism meaning they are closer to their potential at an earlier stage than they would have been historically).

It's somewhat a catch-22. Someone might benefit from being selected on an ongoing basis and never having their position questioned but likewise no one has played at close to the level that would demand or warrant that.

There's no obvious answer in my view.

This is the first season Donaldson has had a decent coach and not been in a yo-yo selection scenario

 

[LeCheese]

I absolutely agree that we shouldn't be swapping every week but likewise I think the benefit of picking and sticking and the detriment of making changes is overstated. The current reality is we have three options who are all very close to each other.

The counterargument to this being that if they're all there or thereabouts, would it not make the most sense to persist with the most experienced 10 and blood the next one coming through (which is what Schmidt appears to be doing)?

As I said, I have no particular allegiance to any of the 10 options, but just think there could be some benefits realised from persisting with one for a bit of time.

 

[Slim 293]

To be fair Noah has been recalled off 2 bad games and a bad cameo off the bench

To be fair, Noah was overall pretty good in the first Wales test...

 

[stillmissit]

I'll be happy if we're within 10.

DC we will have a decent idea after the first qtr. if the guys have stood up, it will be a case of whether they are fit enough to hang in there. If they are it could be very interesting.

 

[stillmissit]

My point is about consistency and building confidence in the role

Thanks for the spreadsheet it is very interesting.
My point has been made here by others and that is 'Wallabies shouldn't be a training ground'. I have advocated enough youngsters who I thought had talent, but neither Lolesio or Donalson have been among them.
If you are suggesting Lolesio should hold a place until a better 10 turns up then I understand but choose to disagree. Had it been C.Gordon, then I might agree as I thought he had more headroom. None of this is satisfactory as good teams are built around talented 9/10 and a decent pack.
I think we will have the pack next year but the 10 ain't there, nor is it obvious who is coming up yet.

 

[stillmissit]

It's somewhat a catch-22. Someone might benefit from being selected on an ongoing basis and never having their position questioned but likewise no one has played at close to the level that would demand or warrant that.

BH, It is mostly a problem of players, if we had a couple of young 10's competing for the position then it might have been different but the reality is that these two (plus Lynagh off the bench) are what we have. Schmidt will understand their strengths and weaknesses but as he has done since he took over, he will deal with reality and not dreams and hopes.
Harrison might have driven them both to improve. had he not been injury prone.

 

[KOB1987]

To be fair Noah has been recalled off 2 bad games and a bad cameo off the bench

I get the feeling Schmidt views Lynagh as his 10 going forward and if his hamstring didn't play up he would already be the starter

I was thinking exactly the same thing as I was reading through the last couple of pages, sans the bit about his hamstring, I reckon Schmidt is happy to nurture him along regardless.

 

[LeCheese]

Thanks for the spreadsheet it is very interesting.
My point has been made here by others and that is 'Wallabies shouldn't be a training ground'. I have advocated enough youngsters who I thought had talent, but neither Lolesio or Donalson have been among them.
If you are suggesting Lolesio should hold a place until a better 10 turns up then I understand but choose to disagree. Had it been C.Gordon, then I might agree as I thought he had more headroom. None of this is satisfactory as good teams are built around talented 9/10 and a decent pack.
I think we will have the pack next year but the 10 ain't there, nor is it obvious who is coming up yet.

Apologies, I probably wasn't clear - by building confidence in the role I wasn't referring to learning how to be a 10, but the ability to play their game with the confidence that they aren't going to be immediately dropped should they make an error or two.

Autonomy, confidence, and psychological safety are all core tenets of performance in any professional environment.

 

[dru]

Clearly plenty of fans are calling the 10 from recent years of supporting the Wallabies. Which is understandable.

Schmidt has had three games to get a squad together, work team roles into the squad, re-set basics, and I mean basics. We can expect game plan, strategy etc to continue developing. He said from the start that he would need to work through a few options before he really knew who his best 23 was. We aught be comfortable with giving him some time, I reckon.

I'm completely comfortable with Lolesio starting at 10 at this point in the RC. I anticipate some continuation of "playing from 9" both because of the opposition and the stage of development under Schmidt.

 

[stillmissit]

Autonomy, confidence, and psychological safety are all core tenets of performance in any professional environment.

In my job (20+ years ago), it was Autonomy without the 5-1 shock (ie trusted to closely watched), confidence until they proved it was only skin deep and psychologically no safety as fear was always driving them, myself and the whole industry.
Similar to pro Rugby you are 'skating on the thin ice of mock life' (Pink Floyd) one bad injury, a form slump and a long term career becomes a short one.

 

[Tomthumb]

To be fair, Noah was overall pretty good in the first Wales test...

Really? He missed an easy goal kick and missed touch badly leading to Wales disallowed try

pretty low bar if that’s a good game