Wallabies 2023

[fatprop]

On the Gordon/Lolesio chat.

Noah's a class footy player and has a high ceiling, but I reckon the exclusion from the squad is an intentional test from Jones and selectors to watch his response. The ball's entirely in his court.

Gordon is still developing. He's come on in leaps and bounds this season and much of it seems to be the rest of the team deferring to him on the field and respecting his calls. He's not sitting as deep in the pocket as previous years and his ability to take the ball to the line is really impressive. Comparisons to Quade are only fair in some very limited circumstances, and I reckon him passing flat is one of them.

In terms of selection for the Wallabies? I think they're both potential liabilities but you have to take the good with the bad in key positions like 10. Carter is a hell of a lot more robust and physical without sacrificing the ball playing nous, which will stand him good stead for the tougher and harder physical competition at international level.

They could still take Cooper & Foley whilst having Hodge as the desperation option for the RWC whilst having Noah and Gordon jelly wrestle to start on the November tour & onwards

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Bobby is an 80 min player. Worked hard on that for a few years now to get his body right for that role. I mean you could move the back row & locks around & bring Gleeson on & bobby to 6

This is where the juggling and Holloways ability may come into it. He can shift into the Row if needed.

Could be a good way of managing minutes through the pool games when you can. Saving a guy 20-30 can make a difference in the knockouts

 

[Highlander35]

An interesting option around the make up of our best 23 is whether your planned substitutions can be around replacing both locks rather than a backrower.

To do this with a standard 5:3 bench would need one of the replacement locks to be able to play in the backrow (Holloway). Alternatively he starts at 6 and then shifts to lock for the last half an hour. I'm thinking you lose impact there though.

It works better with a 6:2 split and carrying 2 locks and 1 backrower instead of the normal default of 2 backrowers.

I saw some stats from the Springboks who regularly use 6:2 bench splits and their success from the 2 lock replacements was really high.

Let's say you ended up with a 6:2 split you could have something like:

Bell Porecki Ala'alatoa
Frost Skelton
Holloway Hooper Valetini

Res: Slipper, Lonergan, Tupou, Swain, Neville, Gleeson

As an addendum to this:

Glasgow played the 6-2 double lock bench for much of this season under Saffa Coach Franco Smith to good success for much of this season but was undone, almost directly by it, in the QF game last weekend against a Munster team willing and capable of fronting up physically with a more standard Pack and Bench forward makeup, and being unable to use the bench creatively to unleash the backs against their excellent and comprehensive defensive structures.

While there are certainly other factors at play (Hodge for example in the 23 jersey covers playmaker duties far more effectively than Huw Jones does, only running a single recognised kicker in the team, an identity largely built around being allowing a more open game on both sides due to confidence that you'll win any tryfest), it's a complicated risk that can be exploited by any conventional pack capable of fronting up defensively for the full 80 minutes.

 

[qwerty51]

As an addendum to this:

Glasgow played the 6-2 double lock bench for much of this season under Saffa Coach Franco Smith to good success for much of this season but was undone, almost directly by it, in the QF game last weekend against a Munster team willing and capable of fronting up physically with a more standard Pack and Bench forward makeup, and being unable to use the bench creatively to unleash the backs against their excellent and comprehensive defensive structures

I mean I think a red card to their #10 was just as damaging..
--
Can you imagine replacing Skelton and Gleeson (and Alan) with Phillip, Leota and Tupou. Relentless carrying.

 

[stillmissit]

it's a complicated risk that can be exploited by any conventional pack capable of fronting up defensively for the full 80 minutes.

A pack capable of fronting up defensively combined with a strong centre combination, equally dedicated to solid defence will win a majority of Internationals, assuming that the 9-10 combination is sound and the back 3 can score when the opportunity arises.

 

[upthereds#!]

I think it's easy to forget that in the last squad, it was Mcreight that Samu kept out. If Mcreight is in, and with the rise of Gleeson - I can see Samu being squeezed which is a shame. But they can't afford to carry Hoops, Samu, Gleeson and Mcreight in 4/6 spots. Not enough range there.

IMO

Hoops, Gleeson, Samu & Mcreight are going for 3 spots
Wilson, Valetini, Leota, & Holloway are going for 3 spots.

Hanigan is liked by Eddie but Holloway has him beat as a lock/6 and Swinton (a personal favourite of mine) would have to kill it on his return to battle with Leota and Wilson for a spot in the 'finalist 4'.

 

[upthereds#!]

An interesting option around the make up of our best 23 is whether your planned substitutions can be around replacing both locks rather than a backrower.

To do this with a standard 5:3 bench would need one of the replacement locks to be able to play in the backrow (Holloway). Alternatively he starts at 6 and then shifts to lock for the last half an hour. I'm thinking you lose impact there though.

It works better with a 6:2 split and carrying 2 locks and 1 backrower instead of the normal default of 2 backrowers.

I saw some stats from the Springboks who regularly use 6:2 bench splits and their success from the 2 lock replacements was really high.

Let's say you ended up with a 6:2 split you could have something like:

Bell Porecki Ala'alatoa
Frost Skelton
Holloway Hooper Valetini

Res: Slipper, Lonergan, Tupou, Swain, Neville, Gleeson

2 full locks is not that common. Mostert was the SA player and he was absolutely considered a blindside aswell

Without mucking up your starting team or the rest of them (only locks and br)
res. 16. Lonergan 17. Slipper 18. Tupou 19. Arnold 20. Leota 21. Gleeson

Hopefulyl Swain won't be near the wallaby squad, and Neville unfortunately get's squeezed out if Eddie gets his way.

 

[Braveheart81]

Hopefulyl Swain won't be near the wallaby squad, and Neville unfortunately get's squeezed out if Eddie gets his way.

I reckon it's pretty wide open after Frost and Skelton especially considering two potential options in Philip and Rodda aren't playing.

 

[Dctarget]

I reckon it's pretty wide open after Frost and Skelton especially considering two potential options in Philip and Rodda aren't playing.

A trio of Skelton, Frost and an Arnold would be quite nice for the 23.

 

[Highlander35]

I mean I think a red card to their #10 was just as damaging..

Tom Jordan wasn't going to be the man to unlock that defence even before his injury and card, we weren't winning that game regardless without a substantial change in tactical mindset that player selection had prevented.

 

[qwerty51]

Phillip might be back this week? Think he'll make it, he's got 4 games left to make an impact.

Rodda is the tough one, at his best he's one of our first picked (he's the best ruck shifter we have). But he missed so much of last year and now this year with the same injury? He needs to get back asap but can you trust him not to break down again.

I have a feeling Arnold is well within Eddie's plans, he's singled him despite being uncapped and overseas - he wants him involved and he's playing very well for Toulouse, bit on inside info on a few key Frenchmen isn't the worst either (same goes for Skelton).

We'll pick 4 locks and it'll be 2 from those 3 IMO. Neville, Swain, Hosea nope.

 

[Misunderstood fan]

Eddie said he was taking 3 10s. But I think the 3rd has to be able to play somewhere else. Like a To'omua or JOC (James O'Connor) (James O'Connor). I'm sure he would have liked Donaldson to do better and be able to cover 15. Most likely in this squad, Hodge.

However could still be Quade, Foley and Gordon - but seems like a wasted spot. But who do you back in vital international games as the 2nd string - the proven performer who you know can deliver, or the young gun. Is the WC the place to 'blood' someone? He would have to start 2 of the 3 RC games IMO to know.

If there are 3 10s you go will the experience of QC (Quade Cooper) and Foley, then the options are …
Hodge: Covers 10 to 15
Gordon: Specialist. Well you could almost say he could cover flanker. Plays like one. Ha.

JOC (James O'Connor) and Donaldson not up to it. And Gordon is ahead of Noah in all aspects regardless of playing in a test.

 

[Members Section]

If there are 3 10s you go will the experience of QC (Quade Cooper) (Quade Cooper) and Foley, then the options are …
Hodge: Covers 10 to 15
Gordon: Specialist. Well you could almost say he could cover flanker. Plays like one. Ha.

JOC (James O'Connor) (James O'Connor) and Donaldson not up to it. And Gordon is ahead of Noah in all aspects regardless of playing in a test.

Foley cant be completely dismissed he has guided his side in Japan to almost undefeated home & away season

 

[Misunderstood fan]

Foley cant be completely dismissed he has guided his side in Japan to almost undefeated home & away season

I included him. QC (Quade Cooper) and Foley are definitely 1 and 2. I’d go Gordon as 3 and also take Hodge as a backup for 10 to 15. There’s room.

 

[qwerty51]

I included him. QC (Quade Cooper) (Quade Cooper) and Foley are definitely 1 and 2. I’d go Gordon as 3 and also take Hodge as a backup for 10 to 15. There’s room.

I really doubt we take 3 10s and Hodge.

There's likely only 14 back spots. Take off 3 for 9s. 2 for Quade and Foley and you're left with 9 spots.

Kerevi, Ikitau, Foketi certs.
Kellaway, Korobiete, Wright, Petaia certs.

Two left, if you're including Hodge and Gordon you're left with no outside backs outside a 23, risky if one gets injured and we're putting Hodge in the 23. I think it'll be Hodge (to play as 10 v Portugal and backup anywhere else last) and either Mark N (Nawaqanitawase) or Pietsch.

 

[Misunderstood fan]

I really doubt we take 3 10s and Hodge.

There's likely only 14 back spots. Take off 3 for 9s. 2 for Quade and Foley and you're left with 9 spots.

Kerevi, Ikitau, Foketi certs.
Kellaway, Korobiete, Wright, Petaia certs.

Two left, if you're including Hodge and Gordon you're left with no outside backs outside a 23, risky if one gets injured and we're putting Hodge in the 23. I think it'll be Hodge (to play as 10 v Portugal and backup anywhere else last) and either Mark N (Nawaqanitawase) (Nawaqanitawase) or Pietsch.

Hodge needs to lift his game but is the logical choice. Gordon might have to keep training back here incase QC (Quade Cooper) or Foley go down. Only a flight away.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

It disgusts me, but this is how Donaldsons name remains relevant. He can play 10 & 15. If he can have a good finish to the year who knows... I don't want him in the squad I'm just pointing out he's the type of guy they want. Some people though Bryce Hegarty might be around there to start the year as well.

 

[Misunderstood fan]

It disgusts me, but this is how Donaldsons name remains relevant. He can play 10 & 15. If he can have a good finish to the year who knows... I don't want him in the squad I'm just pointing out he's the type of guy they want. Some people though Bryce Hegarty might be around there to start the year as well.

Can Gordon play fullback? Yeah, Donaldson not showing he’s got the smarts.

 

[qwerty51]

It disgusts me, but this is how Donaldsons name remains relevant. He can play 10 & 15. If he can have a good finish to the year who knows... I don't want him in the squad I'm just pointing out he's the type of guy they want. Some people though Bryce Hegarty might be around there to start the year as well.

He's not really doing anything better than Hodge and doesn't have a long boot.

 

[Highlander35]

I can't see how you can justify a 3rd fly half and Hodge in the squad. If you select three out and out 10s, you're expecting to use two of them in every matchday squad, and Hodge becomes supernumerary, as someone like Perese or Petaia become far more valuable as bench options.

If you select Hodge, then it's with an eye to using his versatility to avoid having an out and out 10 in reserve and to provide matchday cover in case of injury & suspension. If both fly halves fall under injury louds you need to bite the bullet and have the more injured one be swapped out.