Wales vs Australia, 5 November 2016, (1:30am 6 November AEDT) @ Millenium Stadium

[Micheal]

The Starting XV:

1. Sio
2. Moore (c)
3. Kepu
4. Arnold
5. Coleman
6. Fardy
7. Pocock
8. Timani
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Naivalu
12. Hodge
13. Kuridrani
14. DHP
15. Folau

Rationale:

1-5: pick themselves.

6: Fardy is the obvious replacement for Mumm - they are similar players that provide similar skillsets. Happy to see Mumm out of the 23 and lets hope Fardy takes this opportunity to return to his RWC form.

7: Pocock vs. Hooper. What a problem to have, and I don't think that theres really a 'wrong' or 'bad' decision. Either would take the 7 jersey in any other team in the world, yet they both offer very different things. I think that we should rotate them to give both Hooper a rest (the energiser bunny has barely missed a Tahs / Wallabies game in years), Pocock some playing time but most importantly to not give Pocock too much playing time as he susceptible to injury.

We're heading up to the cold wintery North and considering that Wales play Gatland-ball I think that Pocock is the right player to start. Gatland loves his big "power-game" brutes and his team rarely gets it past 13. Horses for courses and Poey's tighter game causes him to win the selection battle.

8: Timani. He's doing so, so well and he offers something that none of our other forwards can provide. Let him teach the NH sides what a real bruising 8 looks like (Vunipola vs. Timani holy smokes what a match up that'll be). The double seven experiment is over.

9-10: I'm a Phipps / Foley man. I like the quick ball, line threatening running and Foley's stability. I don't think we give up too much in attack and I don't think Foley's kicking is that much of a weakness. Many of you will disagree but I'm fairly confident they'll be selected and I think they certainly should be after their last performance.

12-13: Let Hodge show his wares at 12 in a test match that isn't against the best team in the world at the ground they never lose at. Kuridrani to 13 for the same reasons as Pocock at 7. Not the world's biggest 'Drani fan but he's a solid ball runnerand solid defender with test experience to boot. The 12-13 channel is the main attacking channel for Wales so we need someone who'll tackle all day here. He won't let us down and Folau to be tested at 13 against Scotland.

11, 14-15: Only surprise here is Naivalu. Speight going for the intercept against NZ is a fucking drop-able offense if I've ever seen one. If you've been gifted your first test cap after some pretty average form don't you dare go for an intercept off a set piece play 10m out from our try line in the first half of the game. He let ALP score the world's easiest try.

Aside from that, Speight and Naivalu are pretty similar players but Naivalu edges him on pace and current form. I also thought Naivalu was looking to get quite involved when he came on and I think that should be rewarded.

The Bench:

16. Slipper
17. Hansen
18. AAA / Robertson
19. Simmons
20. Hooper
21. Frisby
22. Quade
23. Speight / McMahon

Rationale:

16-17: Slipper is class yet his form hasn't been fantastic. Let him play back into form as I think his scrummaging can be top-notch and he's about as dynamic around the park as props come. Hansen to get more game time (Moore has been playing too many minutes) and one of the young guns to round off the reserve front row.

19-20: Dob Dimmons has impressed me off the bench of late which says a lot as I fucking hate him as a player. I think we should look to speed the game up in the last 20-30 and he'll help us do this. He's never offered much impact but he's reliable and hopefully some time on the bench will continue to fire him up. Hooper needs no introduction nor explanation.

21-22: To come in the last 20-30 to speed the game up alongside 19-20. Where Quade will play I'm not sure but I have no doubt he'll get considerable minutes at 10 on tour, both in the starting team and from the bench.

23: Either Speight to offer some backline cover, or McMahon to assist with the breaking open of the game in the last 30. McMahon is an absolute animal and deserves to be on the field, but I'm not sure if its optimal for the balance of the team.

A 6-2 split would be possible as many of our backline players are quite versatile (see below), and I think Cheika may be tempted into going for it considering McMahon is exactly the type of abrasive player he loves, and doesn't require too much of a compromise as he is a solid lineout option. Could see him going on for either Timani or Fardy in the second half.

Backline Permutations:

Player: main position, secondary position, (tenuous cover if needed).

Phipps: Halfback, (wing).
Foley: Flyhalf, inside centre, fullback, (wing).
Naivalu: Wing, outside centre.
Hodge: Inside centre, outside centre, wing, fullback.
Kudridrani: Outside centre, (wing), (inside centre).
DHP: Wing, fullback, (outside centre).
Folau: Fullback, wing, outside centre.

Frisby: Halfback.
Quade: Flyhalf, fullback, (inside centre), (wing).

 

[wamberal]

Micheal,


I think you are over-egging it a bit by saying that both Pocock and Hooper would be a first choice for every other country.

 

[Twoilms]

With it to be 9 Phipps and 10 Foley I would definitely go with Izzy at 13 and get the Tah combo that looked pretty decent together.

DHP at fullback and I guess Speight and Sefa on the wings.

No idea about the backrow, but I suspect it will be the same pack as last test.

Offensively, i'd say thats close to our best backline but boy is it soft defensively.

 

[Micheal]

Micheal,


I think you are over-egging it a bit by saying that both Pocock and Hooper would be a first choice for every other country.

Am I?

Both consistently deliver better performances than either Matt Todd (more Pocock-like), Sam Cane (a fusion) or Ardie Savea (more Hooper-like)?

Their average performances and their highlights reels (certainly Hoopers) are far better. Although admittedly, their NZ counterparts would probably push them the closest.

Likewise, on average they are consistently better than Jaco Kriel, James Haskell (despite his form in the England vs. Aus series - that was career best), Chris Robshaw, Warburton, Tipuric etc. etc.

Who do you think is consistently (or at peak performance) better than either Hooper or Pocock?

 

[Twoilms]

Am I?

Both consistently deliver better performances than either Matt Todd (more Pocock-like), Sam Cane (a fusion) or Ardie Savea (more Hooper-like)?

Their average performances and their highlights reels (certainly Hoopers) are far better. Although admittedly, their NZ counterparts would probably push them the closest.

Likewise, on average they are consistently better than Jaco Kriel, James Haskell (despite his form in the England vs. Aus series - that was career best), Chris Robshaw, Warburton, Tipuric etc. etc.

Who do you think is consistently (or at peak performance) better than either Hooper or Pocock?

TBH i wouldn't be that unhappy with Warburton over either of them. Or Matt Todd.

 

[Micheal]

TBH i wouldn't be that unhappy with Warburton over either of them. Or Matt Todd.

Well I strongly disagree. It'd be interesting to see what Gatland and Hansen thought, not that we'd ever get an honest opinion out of them within 5 years of them leaving their current gigs.

 

[wamberal]

If they are both that good we really should be winning a lot more games, mate. (And so should the Tahs, BTW).

 

[Scrubber2050]

The Starting XV:

1. Sio
2. Moore (c)
3. Kepu
4. Arnold
5. Coleman
6. Fardy
7. Pocock
8. Timani
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Naivalu
12. Hodge
13. Kuridrani
14. DHP
15. Folau

Rationale:

1-5: pick themselves.

6: Fardy is the obvious replacement for Mumm - they are similar players that provide similar skillsets. Happy to see Mumm out of the 23 and lets hope Fardy takes this opportunity to return to his RWC form.

7: Pocock vs. Hooper. What a problem to have, and I don't think that theres really a 'wrong' or 'bad' decision. Either would take the 7 jersey in any other team in the world, yet they both offer very different things. I think that we should rotate them to give both Hooper a rest (the energiser bunny has barely missed a Tahs / Wallabies game in years), Pocock some playing time but most importantly to not give Pocock too much playing time as he susceptible to injury.

We're heading up to the cold wintery North and considering that Wales play Gatland-ball I think that Pocock is the right player to start. Gatland loves his big "power-game" brutes and his team rarely gets it past 13. Horses for courses and Poey's tighter game causes him to win the selection battle.

8: Timani. He's doing so, so well and he offers something that none of our other forwards can provide. Let him teach the NH sides what a real bruising 8 looks like (Vunipola vs. Timani holy smokes what a match up that'll be). The double seven experiment is over.

9-10: I'm a Phipps / Foley man. I like the quick ball, line threatening running and Foley's stability. I don't think we give up too much in attack and I don't think Foley's kicking is that much of a weakness. Many of you will disagree but I'm fairly confident they'll be selected and I think they certainly should be after their last performance.

12-13: Let Hodge show his wares at 12 in a test match that isn't against the best team in the world at the ground they never lose at. Kuridrani to 13 for the same reasons as Pocock at 7. Not the world's biggest 'Drani fan but he's a solid ball runnerand solid defender with test experience to boot. The 12-13 channel is the main attacking channel for Wales so we need someone who'll tackle all day here. He won't let us down and Folau to be tested at 13 against Scotland.

11, 14-15: Only surprise here is Naivalu. Speight going for the intercept against NZ is a fucking drop-able offense if I've ever seen one. If you've been gifted your first test cap after some pretty average form don't you dare go for an intercept off a set piece play 10m out from our try line in the first half of the game. He let ALP score the world's easiest try.

Aside from that, Speight and Naivalu are pretty similar players but Naivalu edges him on pace and current form. I also thought Naivalu was looking to get quite involved when he came on and I think that should be rewarded.

The Bench:

16. Slipper
17. Hansen
18. AAA / Robertson
19. Simmons
20. Hooper
21. Frisby
22. Quade
23. Speight / McMahon

Rationale:

16-17: Slipper is class yet his form hasn't been fantastic. Let him play back into form as I think his scrummaging can be top-notch and he's about as dynamic around the park as props come. Hansen to get more game time (Moore has been playing too many minutes) and one of the young guns to round off the reserve front row.

19-20: Dob Dimmons has impressed me off the bench of late which says a lot as I fucking hate him as a player. I think we should look to speed the game up in the last 20-30 and he'll help us do this. He's never offered much impact but he's reliable and hopefully some time on the bench will continue to fire him up. Hooper needs no introduction nor explanation.

21-22: To come in the last 20-30 to speed the game up alongside 19-20. Where Quade will play I'm not sure but I have no doubt he'll get considerable minutes at 10 on tour, both in the starting team and from the bench.

23: Either Speight to offer some backline cover, or McMahon to assist with the breaking open of the game in the last 30. McMahon is an absolute animal and deserves to be on the field, but I'm not sure if its optimal for the balance of the team.

A 6-2 split would be possible as many of our backline players are quite versatile (see below), and I think Cheika may be tempted into going for it considering McMahon is exactly the type of abrasive player he loves, and doesn't require too much of a compromise as he is a solid lineout option. Could see him going on for either Timani or Fardy in the second half.

Backline Permutations:

Player: main position, secondary position, (tenuous cover if needed).

Phipps: Halfback, (wing).
Foley: Flyhalf, inside centre, fullback, (wing).
Naivalu: Wing, outside centre.
Hodge: Inside centre, outside centre, wing, fullback.
Kudridrani: Outside centre, (wing), (inside centre).
DHP: Wing, fullback, (outside centre).
Folau: Fullback, wing, outside centre.

Frisby: Halfback.
Quade: Flyhalf, fullback, (inside centre), (wing).

Michael

well thought out post.

However, I'll betya pounds to peanuts Chek will start with both Pocock and Hoops. Something about leopards and spots.

Suppose the team will be announced sometime on Thursday, our time

 

[Scoey]

Warburton isn't the player he started out to be but I agree that Todd is up there with the best currently. I don't think Michael's claim is outrageous at all.

If they are both that good we really should be winning a lot more games, mate. (And so should the Tahs, BTW).

Nope. It's a team game, two excellent players in one position will not win you 'a lot more games'.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I know we've already had two or three 'most important' test matches this year, but this one could really be the one which establishes the credentials of the Wallabies over all of them. We were flat and sub-standard against the English, just on a par or slightly better than Argentina and a very poor South Africa, and just more than daylight behind the ABs, despite some thinking we challenged them in Bledisloe 3. Arguably, that was a very flat performance by the ABs and maybe we were really only in the game while they were making uncharacteristic mistakes.

We should expect to beat Wales, but if our form against the ABs has been over-stated, then this could be/will be a close contest. If we should lose, then I think not only the chance of a grand slam will have evaporated at the first hurdle, but there will be a whole lot of new doubt being cast over the Wallabies as a team, as individuals and also over the coaching staff, their selections and game plan.

As I said, this could be the most important test match for the Wallabies this year.

 

[Scoey]

It's no secret that the AB's are operating on a plane above everyone else at the moment. We should absolutely not be happy with that and be doing everything possible to beat them but aside from this, we should be absolutely intent on making the clearest statement that we are number 2. Each one of these tests is our biggest test of the year moving forward.

 

[Viking]

Am I?

Both consistently deliver better performances than either Matt Todd (more Pocock-like), Sam Cane (a fusion) or Ardie Savea (more Hooper-like)?

Their average performances and their highlights reels (certainly Hoopers) are far better. Although admittedly, their NZ counterparts would probably push them the closest.

Likewise, on average they are consistently better than Jaco Kriel, James Haskell (despite his form in the England vs. Aus series - that was career best), Chris Robshaw, Warburton, Tipuric etc. etc.

Who do you think is consistently (or at peak performance) better than either Hooper or Pocock?

Consistently = no-one.

Peak performance = Ardie Savea.

 

[PeterK]

The Starting XV:

1. Sio
2. Moore (c)
3. Kepu
4. Arnold
5. Coleman
6. Fardy
7. Pocock
8. Timani
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Naivalu
12. Hodge
13. Kuridrani
14. DHP
15. Folau

.

A better team than Cheika will select, purely because Pooper is not selected.

Wales have poor defense out wide AND against the high ball.

So I would put Folau on the wing, and DHP at F/B.
Additionally so the kick pass could be used and better highball chases to be used Cooper should start.

Foley runs the ball better but just does not release the players outside him, he creates little for them.

 

[Twoilms]

A better team than Cheika will select, purely because Pooper is not selected.

Wales have poor defense out wide AND against the high ball.

So I would put Folau on the wing, and DHP at F/B.
Additionally so the kick pass could be used and better highball chases to be used Cooper should start.

Foley runs the ball better but just does not release the players outside him, he creates little for them.

What does this mean exactly? By 'release' do you mean that time he released Speight on his outside down the tryline for what was a near certain try (lol)?

 

[PeterK]

What does this mean exactly? By 'release' do you mean that time he released Speight on his outside down the tryline for what was a near certain try (lol)?

Of course he has done it on an occasion or 2.

Off set piece attack he just can't get the players outside him involved.
He rarely puts players on into gaps.

He can run the ball and when he makes a break he does pass the ball to players in support.

With 65% possession he could not create any tries or at best 1 the disallowed one.
Same story against england, with mountains of possession he creates little. He is such a limited playmaker he needs another one at 12 like Beale to get outside backs involved.

 

[Viking]

What does this mean exactly? By 'release' do you mean that time he released Speight on his outside down the tryline for what was a near certain try (lol)?

I think he means putting players through gaps. He didn't do that on that occasion, he ran the gap himself (not that it was wrong in that occasion - it was great play but built on his individual running game not his passing or vision).

 

[Kev]

Apologies if this has been answered but how does one watch this match? It's not on free-to-air (Ch 10)??!!!!

 

[Viking]

Apologies if this has been answered but how does one watch this match? It's not on free-to-air (Ch 10)??!!!!

You don't. We all sleep instead then watch the replay when hopefully some nice chap uploads it on YouTube.

Because screw BeIN Sports.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Hey Seb, don't you think your vitriol is a bit misplaced being aimed at beIN sports? Surely the only reason it's not being shown on FTA is because the FTA channels are too tight fisted to shell out for the rights. BeIN is only involved because none of the precious FTA channels put up the cash, and apparently they then outbid Foxtel. Not that the last bit matters much to Foxtel customers because BeIN is available through the Fox Sports package.

 

[Slim 293]

So, it was mentioned elsewhere that BEIN is offering free subscription over the next 12 days which will cover the first two tests...........