Wales vs Australia, 5 November 2016, (1:30am 6 November AEDT) @ Millenium Stadium

[fatprop]

Yeah, Speight is big, tough and fast. I thought he would be the obvious choice to mark North especially with Kuridrani defending inside him

 

[tragic]

It is my long held opinion that less jumpers only means worse quality ball, rather than no ball at all. This isn't perfect, but we can deal with it.

Reasoning:
- Short line outs. The may clog the midfield and ruin 1st phase opportunities, but we'll get the ball.
- Front of the line out ball. With misdirection you should be able to win this most of the time - professional teams even often leave this WIDE open. Why? Because it's shit ball and the 5-10m you lose is often the difference between getting the ball wide or getting clogged up at 12.

Plus, I presume they've been building towards this over the last couple of the weeks and giving Lopeti heaps of PSS work around line outs.

We tried the short lineout earlier this year and got owned. NZ and Eng just put a superior jumper against every man in our lineout. And they knew exactly where we were throwing it because of our limited options.
Granted Wales lineout is weaker but I hope this is not the new blueprint for the spring tour or we're in for a frustrating few weeks.

 

[PeterK]

Nah, Latu's a classic impact player. He'll be used the same as Nau: 10-15m of high intensity.

I hope Latu gets 20 mins, Moore has usually slowed down a lot by the 60 min mark

 

[Twoilms]

I really don't get the whining. Looks a good team to me, more or less the one we saw take it to the AB's for 60. Hopefully Timani can continue his rapid progression. Most predicted Hodge, Foley etc to stay. The only real surprise is Pooper (v2), with no line-out option at 6. The way i see it, chek sees he's coming up against a side with two open-sides and has a choice of attempting to dominate the lineout, which IMO we wouldn't have done anyway, or strengthen the field elsewhere. So unlikely to see that backrow again against a full strength line-out but fine for what we face this weekend.

Think the Welsh side is being overplayed a bit. Halfpenny isn't the imperial fullback he was for the Lions and they are missing 3-4 key first teamers. Will be close as usual but unless we have another Bled 1 performance we ought to come out on top.

Edit: Our Discipline in this game will be critical.

 

[PeterK]

Thats a pretty rubbish assessment of Henry Speight. He probably hasn't really broken through on the test arena but is lightning quick with plenty of potential. I dont see any better wingers waiting to take his spot.

No he is not lightening quick anymore.
He does not have genuine pace, never came back from his injuries.
He has been caught from behind often. He showed his lack of pace in 7's.
He has not had 1 good test and has enough opportunities. His defence is poor as well but better than DHP so at the min they should be swapped around.
Naivalu would have been a better choice, he is a lot quicker.

 

[PeterK]

If Cheikas true to form, barring injury or unless foley has an absolute shocker,
Cooper will get the last 5-10'mins.

and even worse he will be on the wing

 

[Twoilms]

No he is not lightening quick anymore.
He does not have genuine pace, never came back from his injuries.
He has been caught from behind often. He showed his lack of pace in 7's.
He has not had 1 good test and has enough opportunities. His defence is poor as well but better than DHP so at the min they should be swapped around.
Naivalu would have been a better choice, he is a lot quicker.

DHP is good defensively, except against the AB's out wide. Where no one defends well.

 

[Brumby Runner]

My biggest concern with Poey playing 6 is that it will encourage Hooper to play wider off the ruck than he does when Pocock isn't in the side at all. Hooper's best game was his last when he was needed closer to the breakdown.

Then, there is the problem of both of them potentially meerkatting at scrum time. I presume the plan is that Poey will play 8 on opposition feed to allow him quick access to the breakdown when Hooper tackles the No 10 or 12. But if past practice is any guide, that could mean both Hooper and Pocock will have their heads up at the scrum, and we will be going backwards at a pace.

I would have preferred Fardy to start at 6. If the strongest backrow to challenge at the breakdown was wanted, then Pocock at 7 and Timani at 8. If a strong running game was wanted from one of the backrow, then Hooper at 7 and Timani at 8. Either way, best players for their respective positions for the game plan, not just shoe horning in the best players.

I do hold to the belief that Fardy is out of form. He does give away unnecessary penalties but that should be able to be rectified by a quiet talk with him by the coach. Otherwise, he has been playing pretty much as he had over the past few years when he established himself as the undoubted best No 6 for the Wallabies. The issue with his non-selection seems to me to have started with his unplanned and very surprising replacement I think when Hooper was yellow carded. You could see the disbelief written all over his face, and that was also reflected in the posts on the game at that time. I don't think he has started since though I could be wrong, and he has been dropped off the bench a couple of times since that incident. I am wondering if he and Cheika might have had harsh words as a result of his untimely replacement?

 

[PeterK]

He was probably the best ref at RWC2015, certainly in the top three. Maybe you are thinking of Poite.

actually no I was thinking of the new one we had this year Raynal. Yes I had mistaken identity, Garces is a good ref.

 

[PeterK]

DHP is good defensively, except against the AB's out wide. Where no one defends well.

No he isn't.

In super rugby he has a 70% tackles success.
In the RC he had a 69% tackle success.
Against England, Argentina and Boks he missed a lot of tackles.

 

[Brumby Runner]

DHP is good defensively, except against the AB's out wide. Where no one defends well.

But George North must be one of the most difficult players to stop one-on-one. Maybe we'll see a new version of the defensive barn dance where Izzy defends on the wing and DHP retreats to full back. Personally, I would start Izzy on the wing opposite to North and have DHP at full back anyway.

 

[amirite]

My biggest concern with Poey playing 6 is that it will encourage Hooper to play wider off the ruck than he does when Pocock isn't in the side at all. Hooper's best game was his last when he was needed closer to the breakdown.

Fair points mate, but I don't expect them to play traditional 6/7 roles, they never have been a traditional pair.

I think they'll just use Hoopers superior close out speed to pressure first phase off set piece, but other than that Hooper will roam wide and Poey will try to get on ball a lot. Simples.

We tried the short lineout earlier this year and got owned. NZ and Eng just put a superior jumper against every man in our lineout. And they knew exactly where we were throwing it because of our limited options.
Granted Wales lineout is weaker but I hope this is not the new blueprint for the spring tour or we're in for a frustrating few weeks.

Firstly, there's lots of different things you can do with short line outs that're worth trying. This method isn't dead in the water.

Secondly, if there's an issue with short options, like I said, attack at 2 and take the slow ball. This could even be a good chance for us to maul a lot, we're a pretty handy mauling team.

Thirdly, if your problem is the opposition has better jumpers man-to-man, having 3 or 4 of them VS 2 isn't going to be the deciding factor.

I'll also draw out attention to Chieka's recent quotes on the subject:

I still think that our lineouts are good and we’ve been working hard on the options. Lopeti’s worked hard on his jump as well, he’s jumped in Melbourne so he’ll have role, a jumping role.

We believe that we have the right strategy, it’s just about getting ball.

 

[RugbyReg]

I'm satisfied with this team. I don't think Fardy particularly strengthens the lineout.

That's a really decent, mobile Welsh backrow, so I think we've selected a trio to match them and attack them.

I thought it would have been a good chance to throw Izzy at 13 to combine with Foley and Phipps, but that only assumes that if Genia is available for the next few games then Quade comes straight back in too. Quade seems to like playing Wales, so I at least hope he gets a good run from the bench and I actually wouldn't mind seeing Hodge run at 13.

Will be interested to see how Latu goes, assuming he gets a run. He's got some ability but I hate the niggle. Hanson just out for a few weeks.

 

[PeterK]

My biggest concern with Poey playing 6 is that it will encourage Hooper to play wider off the ruck than he does when Pocock isn't in the side at all. Hooper's best game was his last when he was needed closer to the breakdown.

Then, there is the problem of both of them potentially meerkatting at scrum time. I presume the plan is that Poey will play 8 on opposition feed to allow him quick access to the breakdown when Hooper tackles the No 10 or 12. But if past practice is any guide, that could mean both Hooper and Pocock will have their heads up at the scrum, and we will be going backwards at a pace.

I would have preferred Fardy to start at 6. If the strongest backrow to challenge at the breakdown was wanted, then Pocock at 7 and Timani at 8. If a strong running game was wanted from one of the backrow, then Hooper at 7 and Timani at 8. Either way, best players for their respective positions for the game plan, not just shoe horning in the best players.

I do hold to the belief that Fardy is out of form. He does give away unnecessary penalties but that should be able to be rectified by a quiet talk with him by the coach. Otherwise, he has been playing pretty much as he had over the past few years when he established himself as the undoubted best No 6 for the Wallabies. The issue with his non-selection seems to me to have started with his unplanned and very surprising replacement I think when Hooper was yellow carded. You could see the disbelief written all over his face, and that was also reflected in the posts on the game at that time. I don't think he has started since though I could be wrong, and he has been dropped off the bench a couple of times since that incident. I am wondering if he and Cheika might have had harsh words as a result of his untimely replacement?

With Lydiade, Tipuric and Moriarty chosen as the welsh back 3 they are very mobile but not big. Pocock is quicker than Fardy so I see a more mobile back 3 chosen.
Fardy is out of form and all he really adds is the lineout which is not needed as much here.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I think they'll just use Hoopers superior close out speed to pressure first phase off set piece, but other than that Hooper will roam wide and Poey will try to get on ball a lot. Simples.

Would you agree or not that the plan is probably to use Poey at 8 on opposition scrums so that he can do precisely that, ie, get to the ball quickly after Hooper effects the tackle on first phase? If so, would that not potentially affect our scrum as well? Could just be that we'll be giving away a swathe of penalties at scrum time which will negate any useful two pronged attack at the breakdown by the Hooper/Pocock combination?

In general play, I expect Hooper will be playing a whole lot wider as he did every time both he and Pocock played together in tests this year, so I believe he won't be as effective as he was in Bledisloe 3.

 

[Twoilms]

My biggest concern with Poey playing 6 is that it will encourage Hooper to play wider off the ruck than he does when Pocock isn't in the side at all. Hooper's best game was his last when he was needed closer to the breakdown.

Then, there is the problem of both of them potentially meerkatting at scrum time. I presume the plan is that Poey will play 8 on opposition feed to allow him quick access to the breakdown when Hooper tackles the No 10 or 12. But if past practice is any guide, that could mean both Hooper and Pocock will have their heads up at the scrum, and we will be going backwards at a pace.

I would have preferred Fardy to start at 6. If the strongest backrow to challenge at the breakdown was wanted, then Pocock at 7 and Timani at 8. If a strong running game was wanted from one of the backrow, then Hooper at 7 and Timani at 8. Either way, best players for their respective positions for the game plan, not just shoe horning in the best players.

I do hold to the belief that Fardy is out of form. He does give away unnecessary penalties but that should be able to be rectified by a quiet talk with him by the coach. Otherwise, he has been playing pretty much as he had over the past few years when he established himself as the undoubted best No 6 for the Wallabies. The issue with his non-selection seems to me to have started with his unplanned and very surprising replacement I think when Hooper was yellow carded. You could see the disbelief written all over his face, and that was also reflected in the posts on the game at that time. I don't think he has started since though I could be wrong, and he has been dropped off the bench a couple of times since that incident. I am wondering if he and Cheika might have had harsh words as a result of his untimely replacement?

I just made the point that discipline will be critical (with Biggar and Halfpenny i give them one spot kick miss the entire match). Fardy's discipline has been shocking. Absolutely shocking.

 

[Viking]

@Seb, I will be sorely disappointed if this is the team we'll see for the rest of the season. Genia is back next week, and on the widely held beliefs of most of us posters, he should be partnered with Quade at 10. So, if there's justice to be had, Genia/Quade (who were our outstanding combination in tests this year) at 9/10 for Scotland, France and Ireland.

I hope your right, but have big doubts about Cheika's selections.

Plus I'm not a big fan of having both 9 and 10's like a package. You should build systems where you can simply insert one player to replace another not have to change your whole combination every time there is a single injury or player unavailable.

 

[amirite]

Would you agree or not that the plan is probably to use Poey at 8 on opposition scrums so that he can do precisely that, ie, get to the ball quickly after Hooper effects the tackle on first phase? If so, would that not potentially affect our scrum as well? Could just be that we'll be giving away a swathe of penalties at scrum time which will negate any useful two pronged attack at the breakdown by the Hooper/Pocock combination?

In general play, I expect Hooper will be playing a whole lot wider as he did every time both he and Pocock played together in tests this year, so I believe he won't be as effective as he was in Bledisloe 3.

It's possible and not illogical, but it's all speculation.

I think it's more likely they'll leave it as is for simplicities sake and because Poey on the blind side sures the side up defensively (he's faster than Timani) + Timani's added weight at 8 is handy on defensive scrums.

It'll all be fine.

 

[Viking]

Thats a pretty rubbish assessment of Henry Speight. He probably hasn't really broken through on the test arena but is lightning quick with plenty of potential. I dont see any better wingers waiting to take his spot.

To be fair I think Speights lost some pace after his injury. Hope he carves it up though as I don't think there is a better winger in Aus then an in-form Speight - hasn't been in form for a long time though.

 

[Pfitzy]

Missing ... big no 8 Faletau
Gareth Anscombe; Alex Cuthbert, George North, Jamie Roberts, Liam Williams; Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies; Paul James, Scott Baldwin, Samson Lee, Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn Jones, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau.