Tri Nations Game 3 New Zealand v Australia - Saturday 6 August 2011 - 3N2011

[Groucho]

It's becoming quite amusing over on Planet Rugby. A large number of Kiwis there are in a real snit over Australian 'disrespect'. There are perhaps a dozen threads on it. They're trying to be coy and act all ironic, but they're fuming.

 

[Bruce Ross]

We need some serious grunt to take on the likes of the ABs and England up front.
Deans is looking for it.

If he is it must be a death bed conversion. I find it hard to recall any national coach, Wallabies or otherwise, who has shown less interest in "serious grunt".

There is an unusual degree of optimism in the lead up to this weekend's game, triggered it would appear by the seemingly inexhaustible euphoria emanating from Queensland in the wake of their Super 15 triumph. It is perhaps useful to take stock of the nature of the task confronting our team. First, let's look at the line ups:

All Blacks

1. Wyatt Crockett age 28 5 Tests
2. Keven Mealamu 32 83
3. Owen Franks 23 22
4. Brad Thorn 36 50
5. Ali Williams 30 63
6. Jerome Kaino 28 39
7. Richie McCaw 30 96
8. Kieran Read 25 30
9. Piri Weepu 27 46
10. Daniel Carter 29 81
11. Hosea Gear 27 6
12. Ma'a Nonu 29 58
13. Conrad Smith 29 47
14. Sitiveni Sivivatu 29 44
15. Mils Muliaina 30 96

16. Andrew Hore 32 52
17. Ben Franks 27 8
18. Samuel Whitelock 22 15
19. Adam Thomson 29 21
20. Andy Ellis 27 28
21. Colin Slade 23 3
22. Sonny Bill Williams 25 5

Wallabies

1. Sekope Kepu age 25 5 Tests
2. Stephen Moore 28 57
3. Ben Alexander 26 26
4. Rob Simmons 22 7
5. James Horwill 26 25
6. Rocky Elsom 28 66
7. David Pocock 23 31
8. Ben McCalman 23 11
9. Will Genia 23 24
10. Quade Cooper 23 24
11. Digby Ioane 26 13
12. Pat McCabe 23 3
13. Adam Ashley-Cooper 27 52
14. James O'Connor 21 28
15. Kurtley Beale 22 16

16. Saia Fainga'a 24 12
17. Pekahou Cowan 25 5
18. Dan Vickerman 32 56
19. Scott Higginbotham 25 30
20. Luke Burgess 27 32
21. Anthony Fainga'a 24 5
22. Lachie Turner 24 14

The average age of the All Blacks' run on side is 29 and on average they have played 51 Tests. The comparative figures for the Wallabies are 24 and 26.

The average age of the All Blacks' 22-man squad is 28 and on average they have played 41 Tests. The comparative figures for the Wallabies are 25 and 25.

Since the 26th of July 2009 the All Blacks have played 21 Tests, losing only one - by 2 points.

Finally we look at our record against the All Blacks in terms of winning and losing margins since the 2007 World Cup:

+15, -29, -4, -5, -6, -1, -27, -13, -21, -10, -1, +2.

 

[Joe Blow]

If he is it must be a death bed conversion. I find it hard to recall any national coach, Wallabies or otherwise, who has shown less interest in "serious grunt".

You could start with Eddie Jones Bruce.

And while Deans may not have previously believed that serious grunt up front was required to be successful in test rugby it appears he is coming around to the idea.
His Canterbury sides always had it in spades.
Gone(for now) are Dick Brown, Al Baxter, Nathan Sharpe and Dean Mumm. All technically sound but unable to physically impose themselves on the opposition at the highest level.
I'd say he is looking for a tougher pack.

 

[St Peter]

Finally we look at our record against the All Blacks in terms of winning and losing margins since the 2007 World Cup:

+15, -29, -4, -5, -6, -1, -27, -13, -21, -10, -1, +2.

Stats are all well and good to provide discussion points between games but lets be honest, they will make no difference to the outcome on Saturday.

The game can turn on a lucky bounce of the ball!

I just hope the game lives up to the excited anticipation I have had all week.

 

[qwerty51]

Deans said at the Auckland press conference that Sharpe will be in the squad to play South Africa

 

[Richo]

It's becoming quite amusing over on Planet Rugby. A large number of Kiwis there are in a real snit over Australian 'disrespect'. There are perhaps a dozen threads on it. They're trying to be coy and act all ironic, but they're fuming.

This whole "disrespect" thing is a total beat-up. Steve Hanson is good at mind games, I'll give him that.

 

[Ruggo]

He came across as a sook when I heard about it.

 

[tblackadder]

as a kiwi supporter the 'disrespect' thing sounds like total bs...half arsed distraction

though aussie players love to talk themselves up before a game..ive noticed over the years

with exiting backs on both sides and some forwards on both sides trying to find form it should be a great game...

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I don't think age and/or tests played will have much influence on the weekend. We have a young team, yes, but this is just about the best match day 22 we can select, injuries notwithstanding. There aren't a lot of other guys with loads more experience sticking their hands up for selection and I'm not sure they would be any better now anyway.

In any case, this is the ultimate test for the squad, I think. If we can win in Auckland or the return game, then I feel we are a big chance in September/October. The All Blacks are the marker by which other teams are measured and rightly so. We have to beat them to feel like we are any chance to win anything. To beat them, we will have to be very solid in the set piece and most importantly, win or break even in the collisions. The AB's are supreme in that area and to be any chance to beat them, you must hold the line at the breakdown. That means guys like Pocock, Elsom, Horwill and Simmons must crash in there and move bodies on our own ball and try to disrupt theirs. It's a massive challenge, but if you don't do against these blokes, you are sunk. Their backs are too quick and classy to use only pace and spreading the ball wide to beat them.

 

[Richo]

He came across as a sook when I heard about it.

Yep. It got a reaction though, at least from NZ supporters. And the Wallabies now have to answer dumb questions about whether they respect the All Blacks.

 

[qwerty51]

He said we should be in awe of the All Blacks. What a fruitcake.

 

[Bullrush]

He said we should be in awe of the All Blacks. What a fruitcake.

Did he really say that?!?!? Bahahahaha....that's too funny!!

 

[qwerty51]

Not word for word, I might've construed that a little

Hansen said Wales had been in awe of the All Blacks when he coached them, and though that was probably gone, the Wallabies were even less intimidated.

"The Australians aren't in awe of us, they probably don't even respect us," he told media this morning. "You've only got to read what they've got to say."

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

He's a lovely twister of words, Hansen. Shut up and coach your forward pack dipstick.

 

[tblackadder]

hansen likes to talk alot...even in 2009 when the boks were beating us everywhere

i would rather he concentrated on the abs lineout...becuase there is no way the aussies will give the ab lineout such an easy ride as sth africa did (did they challenge even once - i cant remember any)...this worries me more

in the loose (in the forwards) and in the scrums we should have an edge

 

[chriscullen]

I find it impossible to believe players from either side can be motivated by respect/disrespect/coopers hit on MCCaw/Qld reds beating crusaders or anything else. Surely a bledisloe cup game in a world cup year is enough to motivate any professional player rather than silly mind games.

 

[chief]

Certainly a lot of optimism coming into this match, however I don't think the Wallabies can win this one. The team is probably one of the closer teams to full strength as we have. But I think the AB's front row will simply out muscle ours.

Bold prediction, Kieran Reid to be the difference. We just don't have the type of number 8 to match up to him. The one player who has out played Kieran Reid this year has been overlooked....

AB's by 6, however if the AB's front row keeps holding back Australian players then the difference will probably be about 10.

 

[FrankLind]

Wow - pedant alert again - it Kieran Read, not Reid

 

[da_grubster]

Genuinely interested chriscullen.... what's the sentiment like between the AB fans? Could the RWC be a bridge too far?

NO, hardly talked about. Only really Thorn is defying age at 36, most players are 27-30 which is generally accepted the age that players hit their peak.

Has any side as young as the wallabies ever won a world cup? Maybe '87 but clearly, experience counts.

 

[da_grubster]

So this is how I see the match ups:

Forwards:

Front Row - set piece to NZ, around the park even
Locks - set piece even, around the park even
Loosies - attack to NZ, defense even

Backs

Halfback - attack to Aus, defense to Aus
Flyhalf - attack even (but depends on how much the game opens up), defense NZ (although even with Digby there)
Centres - attack to NZ, defense to Aus
Wings - attack to Aus, defense even
Fullback - attack to Aus, defense even

So, pretty much what we all knew. Slight advantage to NZ in the forwards, and slight advantage to Aus in the backs. It will depend on who plays best as a team on the day.

I think you are being far too generous to you front row, loosies and centres on defence. I suppose you could say wing defence to NZ if Coops is out there when Aus are on defence (As you have mentioned on your flyhalf analysis?).

fair enough, everyone can be accused of national bias, even me sometimes ;-)