Tri Nations Game 3 New Zealand v Australia - Saturday 6 August 2011 - 3N2011

[RedsHappy]

I honestly don't think the Boks are expecting much for the first game back in a long time. There is no way they can really fire on all cylinders even with their conservative approach with so little game time in over 6 weeks (the B team is now done), and so a Wallaby win tells us very little. Even PdV 'thinks' the Boks might struggle a bit to find their game usually talks up. I expect the Boks are really gearing up to take on NZ the following week. The Wallabies had their big test last week and blew it; they weren't good enough. A victory this weekend is to be expected. If they front up and lose against this Bok team after all the talk and prep, then the squad is in trouble.

Well analysed Riptide. Just as the first Test we played v SA, and all the 'positives' that arose from that in the media etc, proved a false dawn as to the true state of the team's readiness to take on all comers. And just as Samoa, a far better team on the day than the SA B team, demonstrated latent weaknesses in the Wallabies mindset, preparedness, etc that were to decisively return in different forms in Auckland.

The true test as to the Wallabies' 2011 progress will surely be what lies in wait on August 27.

 

[Jnor]

I really don't think we can ever 'expect' to beat a Springbok side at home, regardless of whether they have or haven't played together and been 'injured'. There is a lot of class in that team and to think we can roll them at home as a matter of course I think is a massive understatement.

Haven't we learned anything? Rispuct your opponent

 

[DPK]

The game was more than three days ago. Is there still anything to discuss?

 

[antipodean]

Yep, big big test this weekend. I think we'll find out a lot about the mental strength of the team in Durban. If they can win over there against a Bok team with plenty to prove, we'll know they've at least got some ticker.

I don't doubt the ticker in this Wallabies squad (apart from Cooper). They can clearly win matches, but consistency is not in their vocabulary. Under Dean's tenure (if I can read tables correctly) the Wallabies got off to a flyer in 2008 winning their first five tests against Ireland, France (twice), the Springboks and All Blacks. Wallaby fans must have been beside themselves with glee. New Zealand's airwaves were still full of people complaining that the NZRU shouldn't have kept the Holy Trinity. Then the Wallabies played at Eden Park. But they followed that loss by ending an eight year drought in the Republic by winning at Kings Park. The next week, a record loss against the Springboks followed up with two more losses against the All Blacks. EOYT saw three winning performances against Italy, England and France before stumbling against Wales. All up a healthy 64% winning ratio.

2009: Inbound tour saw three wins against Italy (twice) and France. Then a run of four losses in the Tri Nations; Eden park (again), Newlands and then two at home before beating the Springboks in Brisbane. Then two more losses to the All Blacks. EOYT started well beating the Old Enemy before a draw against Ireland and a stunning loss against Scotland. Tour was salvaged with a win against the Welsh. Win rate - 43%.

2010: Thumped Fiji, a drawn series against England and a win over Ireland. Tri Nations starts well against the Springbok in the ground they can't buy a win and then a run of three losses before Beale saves the day in South Africa. Come home and lose to the All Blacks but win in Hong Kong thanks to Bieber (and Donald...). Off on the big OE full of confidence beating the Leek Eaters, beaten up by England, beating Italy and then smashing the Surrender Monkeys. Winning ratio improves to 60%. Things are on the up.

2011: Lose to Samoa (wtf), beat the South Africans (those medically cleared to undertake the hazardous journey) and lose to the Blackness at Eden Park (again).

The last time the Wallabies won three tests in a row was in 2009 when Italy and France came for a visit. The 2009-10 against Wales, Fiji and England doesn't count because six months between matches really isn't back to back and it was against Fiji. You have to go back to 2008 for the next run of three consecutive test wins and those were on tour - something the Wallabies haven't been able to do since.

tl:dr The Wallabies could win in South Africa and it won't mean much. If anything.

 

[barbarian]

tl:dr The Wallabies could win in South Africa and it won't mean much. If anything.

Rubbish. Beating SA in SA is always a huge achievement regardless of the circumstances. It will give us confidence and momentum coming into the RWC, and every game from here on in is critical.

 

[antipodean]

Yes winning in South Africa is always an achievement - that's part of what makes rugby the magnificent game it is. As for 'will give us confidence and momentum coming into the RWC', I've demonstrated why that just isn't so.

It's eminently possible the Wallabies could win the RWC, but nothing yet could give anyone confidence they can win three hard tests in a row.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

tl:dr The Wallabies could win in South Africa and it won't mean much. If anything.

Don't agree. Momentum is an important thing in sport, as is notching up wins against your key rivals coming into big tournaments. Does anyone think that we can win the RWC if we don't knock off a full strength Boks and All Black team? We have to get through one or both of them to win the trophy, so you then have to work out a way to beat them.

If we blunder our way into September, it would be a bloody miracle if we were to win.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

I am beginning to believe that momentum and confidence are not good things for this playing group, and they perform best after a good arse kicking. pity we cant drop a game in the RWC.

 

[wtk789]

I have had a good insight into Verusco so I can give you the knowledge I learnt. A match is split into 16 parts, all roughly 5 minutes in length (which includes approximately 2 minutes of active rugby). These are then analysed by coders, each part taking normally two hours to complete. A game in total can take up to 8 hours to be released to clients after kickoff. The staff are given what seems pretty intensive training and strict interpretations to ensure they are all on the same page... although obviously in rugby there are situations and scenarios that are not normally seen which do need a person's own common sense to analyse.

The stats that appear on www.ruggastats.com are those of Verusco that they provide to them, hence their accuracy to those on their own website.
Both the Wallabies and the All Blacks are heavy users, hence I reckon they must be the most accurate/beneficial around

 

[Blob]

Is 1 game in a row really momentum? Is 2? 2 is probably more convincing than 1 but it's still not that convincing. I would say 5 or 6 is momentum. I don't think any team has 'momentum' at the moment.

 

[RRSport]

England will have the measure of the Wallabies I feel again this year just like last time, both teams have improved but I think England are better than they were last time too and when they revert to a forward based game then its no longer a close contest.