The run home: the comp gets serious

[Blue]

Interesting article at http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,27017194-5002381,00.html on the Blues' chances of making the finals. I hadn't quite appreciated that they have a pretty easy run home from here.

So even if they do down to the Sharks, which I think they will, they can still make it id the get four bonus points in all and win the last 3 games puts them on 41. Could be enough?

 

[Scotty]

So there is every chance the Blues can make a late season charge up the ladder if they can somehow introduce consistency into their game. The Blues have only managed to win back-to-back games once this year and switch regularly between world beaters and woeful.

Title contenders?

 

[PaarlBok]

This has probably been asked before, but what's the story with the grass at Loftus? The last Bulls game I saw there, it looked really patchy - are they trying something out for the poofball games?

Apparently they started laying new turf and over time the color of the old and new turf will merge.

There is apparently nothing wrong with it underfoot. Must be for the football. Will be interesting to see what it looks like this weekend.

Yep they put in new drainage at the start of the S14 , so the soys did not worked that well because of the heavy rains we had on the Highveld, now they have planted winter grass while the Brutes was on tour, so hopefull we'll see the dividens on saturday.

 

[Biffo]

Interesting article at http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,27017194-5002381,00.html on the Blues' chances of making the finals. I hadn't quite appreciated that they have a pretty easy run home from here.

So even if they do down to the Sharks, which I think they will, they can still make it id the get four bonus points in all and win the last 3 games puts them on 41. Could be enough?

I had a look at the history of points needed to make the S14 finals. In most years the cut-off is 40-41 but it may fall as low as 38. I suspect that, with the top three teams playing each other and all the pursuers likely to lose at least one game, the cut-off may be 38-39. If that happens, any team with 20+ that can win four in a row will surely make it. Any team with about 25 now can make it with three wins.

I suspect the competition is more open that most think.

What would throw it wide open would be losses by any of the top four to teams way down the ladder.

 

[Blue]

Fuckmesidewayssallybiffowroteparagraphs. :fishing

 

[Biffo]

Fuckmesidewayssallybiffowroteparagraphs. :fishing

Bite smiley not available.

Wrong, Mate, there is only one paragraph in that post. Single-sentence paras don't count.

 

[PaarlBok]

I had a look at the history of points needed to make the S14 finals. In most years the cut-off is 40-41 but it may fall as low as 38. I suspect that, with the top three teams playing each other and all the pursuers likely to lose at least one game, the cut-off may be 38-39. If that happens, any team with 20+ that can win four in a row will surely make it. Any team with about 25 now can make it with three wins.

I suspect the competition is more open that most think.

What would throw it wide open would be losses by any of the top four to teams way down the ladder.

Thanks for that Biff, in summary according to you the Stormers need only two wins from here on. They dont have way down the ladder opponents left, meaning double points on offer here.

 

[Biffo]

I had a look at the history of points needed to make the S14 finals. In most years the cut-off is 40-41 but it may fall as low as 38. I suspect that, with the top three teams playing each other and all the pursuers likely to lose at least one game, the cut-off may be 38-39. If that happens, any team with 20+ that can win four in a row will surely make it. Any team with about 25 now can make it with three wins.

I suspect the competition is more open that most think.

What would throw it wide open would be losses by any of the top four to teams way down the ladder.

Thanks for that Biff, in summary according to you the Stormers need only two wins from here on. They dont have way down the ladder opponents left, meaning double points on offer here.

Yes, I think the Stormers need only two more wins. Three more wins would almost certainly give you a home semi. Two wins, with one against the Bulls or Crusaders, would do the same. Bonus points, for tries or <or=7 would make you certainties.

If I had to pick one team to get a home semi, it would be the Stormers.

 

[PaarlBok]

Ditto Brutes. They will bag a five pointer this weekend , cant see the Sharks have any change against them at the Ring , Saders at home and I expect the Stormers to roll the Saders, so they will have them on the backfoot, only the Stormers Newlands clash , last one. Probably have a easier run then the Stormers I think.

 

[PaarlBok]

Thanks to the Force and the Stormers jump 2 spots on the log to top place. Maybe for one day but nevertheless

Pos Team P W D L PF PA PD TF TA BPts Pts
1 Vodacom Stormers 10 7 0 3 271 127 144 27 12 6 34
2 Crusaders 10 7 1 2 299 191 108 32 15 4 34
3 Reds 10 7 0 3 295 196 99 34 23 6 34
4 Vodacom Bulls 9 7 0 2 308 242 66 35 22 6 34
5 Waratahs 9 6 0 3 278 215 63 32 24 5 29
6 Brumbies 9 6 0 3 261 217 44 29 19 2 26
7 Blues 9 5 0 4 248 240 8 30 22 5 25
8 Chiefs 10 4 1 5 274 309 -35 31 32 6 24
9 Hurricanes 9 4 1 4 232 212 20 24 21 4 22
10 The Sharks 9 4 0 5 208 226 -18 16 21 5 21
11 Western Force 10 3 0 7 189 296 -107 18 35 2 14
12 Highlanders 9 2 0 7 201 285 -84 21 37 3 11
13 Vodacom Cheetahs 10 2 1 7 192 337 -145 16 43 1 11
14 Auto & General Lions 9 0 0 9 223 386 -163 28 47 5 5

 

[chief]

I think there is the extreme possibility that a NZ team will not feature in the Semi Finals. The Crusaders didn't achieve a bonus point, and they have to face, the Stormers, Brumbies and Bulls all in the next three weeks. Time will surely tell. The run home certainly gets interesting. Stormers should not even be number 1. George Ayoub can be thanked for that.

 

[Reddy!]

Okay the current Top 4 have a pretty hard run home, with the Reds having the easiest draw, but still difficult.

From week 12 onwards, these are the teams the current top 4 must encounter:

Stormers - Crusaders > Sharks > Bulls

Crusaders - Stormers > Bulls > Brumbies

Bulls - Sharks > Crusaders > Stormers

Reds - Brumbies > Hurricanes > Highlanders


The contenders (I see these 3 teams as most likely putting pressure on the current top 4):

Waratahs - Highlanders > Chiefs > Hurricanes

Brumbies - Reds > Highlanders > Crusaders

Blues - Cheetahs > Lions > Chiefs


The current top 4 have very hard games, as most of them play each other: luckily for the Reds, they no longer have to play these teams, and finish the season against the unimpressive Highlanders, where a bonus point win is very possible while all the other teams will be playing hard fought matches.

What makes things interesting is that the contenders have a relatively easy run home - The Brumbies have the worst draw, and if they lose tomorrow night are quite possibly already gone. I think the Waratahs have a real chance of making the top 4 if they win tomorrow night, and can win their remaining games - the current top teams are going to start cancelling out each other.

Thoughts?

 

[Nusadan]

Okay the current Top 4 have a pretty hard run home, with the Reds having the easiest draw, but still difficult.

From week 12 onwards, these are the teams the current top 4 must encounter:

Stormers - Crusaders > Sharks > Bulls

Crusaders - Stormers > Bulls > Brumbies

Bulls - Sharks > Crusaders > Stormers

Reds - Brumbies > Hurricanes > Highlanders


The contenders (I see these 3 teams as most likely putting pressure on the current top 4):

Waratahs - Highlanders > Chiefs > Hurricanes

Brumbies - Reds > Highlanders > Crusaders

Blues - Cheetahs > Lions > Chiefs


The current top 4 have very hard games, as most of them play each other: luckily for the Reds, they no longer have to play these teams, and finish the season against the unimpressive Highlanders, where a bonus point win is very possible while all the other teams will be playing hard fought matches.

What makes things interesting is that the contenders have a relatively easy run home - The Brumbies have the worst draw, and if they lose tomorrow night are quite possibly already gone. I think the Waratahs have a real chance of making the top 4 if they win tomorrow night, and can win their remaining games - the current top teams are going to start cancelling out each other.

Thoughts?

Bear in mind Bulls have a game in hand tomorrow, so should be an easy 5 pointer against the Lions...so should be well placed to get a home semi....

 

[Reddy!]

So if I am a Reds fan, who should I be cheering for in the final rounds? All of the bottom teams that will play the contenders?

 

[Hawko]

I suspect the competition is more open that most think.

What would throw it wide open would be losses by any of the top four to teams way down the ladder.

Well the Force have certainly done that, I think the Crusaders are gone for the season. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of fellas. :lmao:

Of the top four, Reds have the easiest run home. I reckon in the first half they were starting to show signs of fatigue, and will need to freshen up from here, but they can't afford to take their foot off the throttle. They have a home final in their sights if they win all four from here with BP's as the Bulls will lose the last game and will probably not get bonus points from the others.

Three more wins for the Stormers without BP's should see them second or third. Tahs must win all four with BP's in two or three to get a home semi. Blues are still in it IF they win all four games and pick up a bonus point or two.

I reckon Reds, Bulls, Stormers, Tahs and Blues are best placed for the four, but the Tahs and Blues must win tomorrow.

 

[Biffo]

What would throw it wide open would be losses by any of the top four to teams way down the ladder.

hhhmmmmm 24-16

 

[wobbly]

I think the Bulls and Stormers are still front runners for home semi's but if the Reds win their remaining matches the unthinkableis possible.

Saders will struggle I reckon. If the Tahs get over Ponies, they'll make the semis.

 

[wobbly]

Geez Reds home semi vs the Tahs - how huge would that be?

It'd go a way to paying off the debt at least.

 

[Langthorne]

Bulls - 39 - Sharks (H) > Crusaders (H)> Stormers (A)

Stormers - 34- Crusaders (H) > Sharks (A) > Bulls (H)

Crusaders - 34 - Stormers (A) > Bulls (A) > Brumbies (H)

Reds - 34 - Brumbies (A) > Hurricanes (A) > Highlanders (H)

Waratahs - 33 - Highlanders (A) > Chiefs (A) > Hurricanes (H)

Looking at the standings and the remaining fixtures gives me great hope for the Reds and Waratahs. Not only will the top 3 take points from eachother, they are also likely to be close, low scoring games ie not many 'try' Bonus Points, possibly a few '7 or less' losing Bonus Points.

The Bulls look to be in a strong position to top the table. The Sharks are getting better every week (they fixed the Blues' wagon this week), but the Bulls would be confident of winning that one. The Crusaders will struggle against them. They may lose to the Stormers, but with the 5 point buffer they now have over them will mean they still finish ahead of them. Maybe they'll end up with about 48 points.

The Stormers, like the Bulls, have shown signs of vulnerability, but back in SA they will likely come good. Probably finish with 46 points.

The Crusaders have a tough run in too. If they manage to beat one of the Stormers or Bulls (especially the Bulls) they will be doing everyone else a big favour. It would be great if the Brumbies could beat them in the final round, but I won't bank on that. Probably finish on 40. Even if they beat one of the Bulls or Stormers they'll have 43 points - probably not enough.

The Reds could easily win their last 3 matches, with the Brumbies being the danger game for them. My guess is a final total of 47 points.

The Tahs have every chance of winning their final 3 matches too, although I don't consider any of them to be easy wins. My guess is 45, maybe 46 points total....at this stage, in my wildest dreams they would get into 3rd position for a semi against the Reds. Otherwise they'll likely have to beat the Bulls in SA - not easy.

The Brumbies, Blues, Hurricanes and Sharks will still think they can make it, but it is extremely unlikely. What they could do is have a say in who does, and what the final standings are.

Of course the beauty of this year's s14 is that there have been plenty of unexpected results, I just hope they don't work out badly for the Aussie teams.

 

[PaarlBok]

with the Sharks beating the Blues it open a bit of a gap and look like a 5 horse race fighting for 4 places